Back in November, the Mets announced they had signed a right-handed relief pitcher named Greg Burke to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training. When I heard of the signing, it reminded me of the scene at the beginning of the movie Major League where the Cleveland fans are all giving their take on roster moves the team made, and the guy in the diner asks “Mitchell Freidman?” In similar fashion, after the signing was announced, Mets fans asked “Greg Burke?”

Who’s Greg Burke???

Burke is an easy guy to point out on the field because he has a very distinct motion. You see, Burke is a side-winder. Side-arm pitching is somewhat of a lost art, similar to the knuckle ball. When you find a guy who is effective, he can wreak havoc on a lineup. The problem with side-winders is, and the reason why most pitchers avoid style of delivery, because you immediately turn yourself into a righty/lefty specialist. A right-handed side-winder, as Burke is, would be incredibly difficult for a right-handed batter to face.

The motion looks weird, the ball comes from a completely different angle, and it just makes the hitter feel very uncomfortable in the batter’s box. However, for a left-handed hitter, it would almost work to their advantage to face a righty side-winder. They would have more time to see the pitch coming across and out of the side-winders hand. A left-handed hitter would feel much more comfortable batting against a right-handed side-winder than a right-handed hitter would. So Burke, like many pitchers trying to stay in the show, have mastered a lost art. He is out of options, and hopefully becoming a side-winding righty specialist will keep him in the show for one more year.

Another movie I am immediately reminded of when seeing Burke, is Moneyball. In Moneyball, an overweight Jonas Hill who we are supposed to believe is representing Paul DePodesta, is virtually obsessed with Chad Bradford, a sidewinding pitcher that Hill’s character believes can be the most effective reliever in their pen.

I’m not so sure DePodesta thinks Burke will be the most effective reliever in the bullpen for the Mets, that is if he makes the team out of camp, but he definitely has the ability to get right-handed hitters out. While I’m not a big believer in bullpen specialists, I think that Burke could provide some decent value with his deceptive pitching style. For at least one go around, the hitters will be very confused when they face Burke, and as long as you get him out of the game before the hitters can adjust, he can be effective.

In 2012, Burke was with the Baltimore Orioles, and split time between AA and AAA. He pitched a total of 64 innings and had a miniscule 1.53 ERA. That is promising. He was named an organizational All-Star by MiLB.com in 2012.

It’s yet to be seen if Burke sticks with the big league club after camp breaks, but he definitely has something the Mets are in need of—the ability to get guys out. Burke is a true underdog, having a brief stint with the Padres back in 2009, but spending most of his career riding buses and staying in motels playing the minor leagues. Everyone loves an underdog story. He has shown the ability to get right-handed hitters out, and hopefully he does enough to earn a spot on the 2013 Mets. Everyone here at MMO will be rooting for him.

Once upon a time, baseball was a simple game. The goal is to score more runs than your opponent. Each team is given 27 outs to score as many runs as they can. In order to score runs, a team’s players have to get on base. Once a player gets on base it was the other players’ jobs to drive them home to score runs. On the other hand, the defense’s job is to get 27 outs allowing the opposition to score the fewest amount of runs. Whoever scores more runs in 9 innings of play wins – simple.

Now let’s fast forward to the 1980s. The 1980s were famous for Nintendo, big hair bands, Reaganomics, and the invention of rotisserie baseball.

Fantasy baseball exploded onto the scene in the 80s, and the men that played this game were looking for ways to build better teams. They wanted to build better teams in order to take home the lucrative prize money that came along with winning their rotisserie league. They used different combinations of stats to form equations, which in return would spew out which players they should select on their team.

Yes, the advanced stats that the game uses today were ultimately developed by men that maybe never even played the game. They were simply looking to build better fantasy teams. It leads the people with advanced knowledge of how the game is played on the field to butt heads with those that sat at their desk and computer doing all the math.

Photo Credit: bronxbanterblog.com

Bill James, the father of advanced statistics and sabermetrics, didn’t start to gather a serious following until the mid to late 1990s. Until then, he published his yearly baseball reviews and would sell 500 copies per year if he was lucky.

The game wasn’t ready for the story he was trying to tell. James was basically telling everyone in the game that they have been looking at the game improperly for nearly 100 years. Advanced statistics were born. He broke down nearly every single aspect of the game, except defense, which he was never able to develop an accurate statistical rating for.

But did the game really need the advanced statistics?

The game had survived over 100 years just fine without advanced statistics. But now, in every team’s organization, there are mathematicians working in this area. The question is, is it really necessary?

The reason why sabermetrics and advanced statistics took over the game in the 90s is because that is the when player salaries started to get to the point where some sort of projection and analysis was needed. Owners wanted to know if it was really worth it to spend the money on player X.

Baseball had officially become a full-fledged business.

In every MBA program across America, students are often required to take a course dedicated to statistics and spreadsheet analysis. The students are taught how to use Excel spreadsheets and programs like Risk Solver to make business decisions. If you are under the assumption that the CEO of a big company makes decisions based on his/her gut you are mistaken.

More often than not, the decisions are made by a computer than runs simulations based on the data that the decision maker inputs. The program takes all the data and then it gives you the most logical decision after running all the simulations.

It’s actually pretty cool. You could build a model that can tell you the best location to build an ice cream shop, based on three different locations, with three different average yearly temperatures, three different traffic patterns, and three different populations in the towns they’re in. Not only will it tell you the best location to build your ice cream shop, but the expected revenue at each location.

The same thing can be done with baseball players – in theory that is.

Everyone knows that Billy Beane and Paul DePodesta’s use of advanced statistics and sabermetrics officially put them on the map. Their use was chronicled in the book Moneyball by Michael Lewis.

The book that exposed Billy Beane’s strategies.

Beane used the advanced statistics to remain competitive with a team that had the lowest payroll in the league. Once he started winning, people started to question how the heck the Athletics could be winning when they were only spending one-third of the money of the other teams. At that point, every Tom, Dick and Harry fell in love with sabermetrics.

Sabermetrics became the key to unlocking hidden baseball talent.

But here is the fundamental flaw with peoples’ understanding of what Billy Beane actually did – Beane wasn’t intentionally trying to win by spending the least amount of money he could. Beane wanted to spend money. He wasn’t trying to do his owner a favor by spending the least amount of money on building a team. He was simply in a situation where his hands were tied. He had to think outside of the box. He had to get more efficient with spending what little money he had. That’s it.

Somehow Beane’s strategy became an excuse for teams to spend less money, and try to build teams using a philosophy that Beane only developed because he had to and not because he wanted to.

Players are now investments, plain and simple. If a team is going to make an investment, the projections, spreadsheets, models and simulations have to all tell the same story – that the player is worth the investment.

However, there is a problem with advanced statistics – the game is still ultimately played on the field. You cannot remove the human element from the game, and no statistic can factor that in. And while past performance is a good indicator of future performance, there is only so much weight that advanced statistics should carry.

Advanced statistics paint an imperfect picture of the game when used improperly. Here is why:

Advanced statistics use inputs which are plugged into an equation and are determined by the person developing the statistics in order to arrive at a desired outcome. They often have to finagle with different stats until they get an answer that makes sense. What also comes into play is the developer’s bias.

If someone is playing with stats in order to make their equation work, how is that more accurate in telling me which player is better than if I used the old school statistics (OBP, AVG, ERA, etc.) which have been used for the past 100-plus years, and my eyes, used to watch the players play?

Let’s take a look at the Holy Bible. There is a show on TV that comes on one of the learning channels every once in awhile which basically alludes to the fact that the bible has a hidden code in it, which not only predicted things that happened in the past, but also can predict future events. Now on the surface, they did prove that there was a code in the bible. But is there really a code in the bible, or was it manipulation by the developer to come to a desired goal/outcome?

Odds are there isn’t a code in the bible, but this just shows how the manipulation of data can get to a desired outcome when played with long enough. One of the major issues with scientists to this day is trying to conduct scientific studies and not have their bias come into play. Bias alters outcomes.

The bottom line is that baseball is still a game where there is still a lot of luck involved. For instance, if a player is half a step to the left or right, a ball drops in that maybe shouldn’t have been a hit. Which stat factors any of these things in? The argument is the law of averages balances everything out. In the end, the math is the constant.

However, there are internal and external factors affecting the game constantly. These factors cannot be built into models. These factors cannot be accounted for statistically.

Where a card counter at the black jack table can turn the odds against the Casino by using probability and a system of advanced mathematical equations to gain an advantage, there is a set number of cards in the deck, and only a certain number of things can occur to account for. You can’t do that in baseball. In baseball, there are an infinite number of things all taking place simultaneously which affect the outcome of every pitch.

The problem at large is that the game has changed significantly since the introduction of advanced statistics. There are too many statistics which are complicating the game. They cause managers to over-manage situations.

For example, is a lefty specialist really necessary in a team’s bullpen? According to advanced statistics they are. But when it’s all said and done a bullpen pitcher is simply a pitcher who could not make it as a starting pitcher. Very few pitchers are groomed to be in the bullpen. In other words, why would I bring a pitcher into a game, and take out my better pitcher, simply because statistics show that one guy is better at getting left-handed batters out?

It doesn’t make sense. The best players should be on the field.

Statistics tell front offices they need lefty specialists. They tell the manager that they better go against their gut which tells them to leave their better pitcher in the game. It sounds crazy when you think about it. I’m going to take out my better pitcher because statistics show that over time, a pitcher of lesser quality has done a better job of getting left-handed hitters out? It doesn’t sound logical.

Now I have decided to take my best pitcher available out of the game to bring in a lefty specialist in order to get one hitter out. After he gets that batter out, I have to take him out of the game to put in an even lesser quality pitcher? Why not just leave my best pitcher in to get the lefty out. Now I have changed the odds of getting the remaining hitters out, all because stats have told me to take my best pitcher out of the game.

The entire landscape of the game changed because of a single stat.

Is there a stat that shows the odds of getting the remaining hitters out in a game after I made that decision? There is a stat that shows me that I should bring a lefty specialist into the game, but not a stat that shows the odds that I will get the remainder of hitters out now that I made that pitching change.

That is just one example of how stats have changed the game, but the question that still remains is – are all of these advanced statistics helping or hurting the game?

Cases can be made for both sides, but the truth of the matter is that all these stats are really good when looked at from the surface. It’s how the people behind the scenes use them that will ultimately determine whether they are good or bad for the game.

My daughter preparing for a front office job someday – you can never start them too early.

Advanced baseball statistics is very similar to the app market for smart phones. App developers are always looking to develop the next Angry Birds, and stat developers are looking to develop the next stat which proves that they have the secret formula to determine who the best player in the league is.

There is no secret formula. Baseball is played on the field, not in a laboratory, and not in a computer program. There isn’t a single stat or mathematical equation that can determine the outcomes on the field.

Nothing will ever change that.

Follow Mitch Petanick on Twitter.

As our Mets Minor League expert Petey Pete unveils Brandon Nimmo at No. 5 in our 2012 MMO Top 20 Prospects, here’s an interview Joe Spector did with Nimmo in October. Enjoy the read, Mets fans! – Joe D.

In his first year as General Manager of the New York Mets Sandy Alderson and his team of baseball executives led by Paul DePodesta, the Mets vice-president of player development and scouting entered the 2011 Draft with one purpose in mind – to draft the best player available.

They’ve abandoned the previous administration’s track record of drafting players a bit more prepared. Doing so would put them at risk of paying overslot for a draft pick. Instead they gravitated towards drafting players with a high ceiling and when the Mets decided on the 13th draft pick, they chose Wyoming native Brandon Nimmo.

A 6 foot 2 outfielder who bats left-handed and throws right handed, Nimmo was drafted right out of high school. Ironically his high school has never had a baseball team, as do all high schools in Wyoming. Considering the frigid winters in Wyoming it’s hard to imagine anyone bearing below zero temps while taking a hard cutter on the hands – with an aluminum bat no less. He did however play American Legion ball; 76 games where he hit a torrid .448 with 15 homeruns and stealing 34 bases without being caught. His raw talent is what caught the organization’s attention.

“We weren’t interested in making the safest pick,” DePodesta said moments after selecting Nimmo with the 13th overall pick. “We were interested in the pick that could have the most impact.”

Baseball America ranked Brandon the second best high school athlete in the 2011 draft and as the second best pure high school hitter. Some scouts have compared him to Paul O’Neill and Rocco Baldelli, but like most comparisons, they never do justice to the person being compared.

I had a chance to ask Brandon a few questions now that he’s officially a member of the New York Met organization. I wanted to keep it as lighthearted as I could and I think he appreciated it, or tolerated it? One never knows for sure. Either way I thank him for his time.

Joe Spector: Brandon, did you always believe that you’d be playing professional baseball someday?

Brandon Nimmo: No I didn’t. It started out as trying to get my college education paid for and it escalated into what it is now. I always wanted to play professional baseball though.

JS: Try to describe how you were feeling when you received the call that the New York Mets drafted you.

BN: Well, I found out like everyone else did…on TV and I was just as surprised as everyone else. When I heard my name get called everyone in the room went ecstatic – they were jumping, yelling and it felt like you just won the biggest game in your life. There is no feeling like it.

JS: How has the transition from aluminum bats to wood been for you? What are the biggest differences for you?

BN: The transition wasn’t too tough for me because I’ve been using wood much more through the years. I would take everything with wood until the start of the games then use the aluminum bats. Towards the end, the metal bats actually became foreign to me. The biggest difference is of course the pop of the bat as the balls obviously don’t go as far. The other challenge for me was to get used to how wood bats are balanced as compared to aluminum.

JS: Who are some of the players you’ve emulated or enjoyed watching as you’ve grown up? And what outfield position are you most comfortable with?

BN: I’m most comfortable in Centerfield. As to my favorite players, Troy Tulowitski was always a favorite of mine growing up along with Todd Helton, since I grew up near the Rockies. I always liked Ken Griffey Jr. as well and I have gotten to know David Wright better since I’ve been a part of the organization. He’s a great guy and an even better player.

JS: There’s a dream that any kid who’s played baseball has had and it’s the moment they see themselves on a baseball card. How exciting will it be to see yourself on a baseball card?

BN: Well fortunately enough I’ve already seen myself on a baseball card and I just finished signing some before this interview. All I can tell you is having your own baseball card is very surreal. It just solidifies that you actually are a professional and that all of this isn’t a dream.

JS: Major League Baseball teams today tend to have an overall team philosophy starting from Rookie ball on up. Can you describe how the Mets philosophy was explained to you?

BN: The Mets philosophy is to play fundamental baseball. Expect mistakes to be made by the other team (especially baserunning). Hone your strike zone recognition skills and do all of this at 100%. I’m still learning all the time but I’m giving it my best effort every time.

JS: Alright Brandon time to jump off subject here and get serious. If you could be a celebrity for one day who would you be and why?

BN: Oh holy cow…I have never thought about that! This is actually the question that took the longest for me to answer if you can believe that! I would have to go with Dierks Bentley. I would love to have a voice like that and be as musically talented as he is. Plus all the girls love him!

JS: Hey I can’t argue with that. Chicks dig a good voice and the longball. What are some of your favorite movies and I have to ask or I wouldn’t be doing due diligence…Jersey Shore…yay or nay?

BN: I’m a big comedy guy. Anything that makes me laugh I like. Some of my favorites are: The Emperor’s New Groove, Tommy Boy, Anchorman, Dumb and Dumber, The Rookie, Forrest Gump, The Harry Potter movies, Lord of the Rings, Gladiator and Troy. As to Jersey Shore would you believe I’ve never seen it! I know there’s actually a teen that hasn’t seen Jersey Shore, unreal but true!

I just want to thank Brandon again for taking the time to do this. It’s funny, as a fan we tend to put professional players on such a high pedestal that we tend to forget that they’re just like the rest of us in so many ways. Not to mention just how young some like Brandon are and what an amazing road he’s undertaking. I’m sure he’ll be inundated with advice along the way. I think as long as he stays focused and remembers that ultimately he’s still playing the same game that he began playing in Wyoming; he should be quite all right. Here’s to seeing Mr. Nimmo patrolling Citifield in a few years.

Graphics by Kelly Designs.

This contribution was borne out of several discussion this offseason in our MMO chat room in which many have heaped praise on Paul DePodesta and J.P. Ricciardi for their player evaluation skills and success in the draft, while knocking the Mets farm system and the player evaluation skills of Omar Minaya.

I wanted to compare the three as fairly as I possibly could, and I thought the best way to do that would be to start at 2000 and look at the the top ten draft picks for all three GM’s or Assistant GM’s up until 2008. I chose to stop at 2008 because it’s still too early to evaluate the last two Amateur Drafts of 2009 and 2010.

I’m not happy with how some are choosing to portray Minaya in a poor light when it comes to player evaluation. You want to say he was a bad GM, that’s your prerogative, but in my opinion he was on his way to being a great GM until 2006 happened. That one post season took him off course and he steered the Mets right off the map of his original well conceived master plan for the franchise. He should have stayed true to himself and his five year plan.

Minaya has always been and still is a great evaluator of talent. Too many have forgotten that one of the reasons Minaya was hired in the first place was because of his eye for talent — he scouted and signed several star players including Sammy Sosa, Juan Gonzalez and Jose Reyes. He was also the Assistant GM when the Mets drafted David Wright, a fact too many forget.

I gave Ricciardi and DePodesta credit for their time as Assistant GM’s with Oakland just so we could look at a good long body of work

I also decided to leave out the glory years for Minaya where he was responsible for the success stories I already mentioned. Basically, I wanted to keep it fair, but also as current as possible.

So let’s see how all three of these executives fared in nine years worth of draft data. Keep in mind that I will also point out instances where a player who was selected may have been flipped or traded for another player because that’s all part of the game too. Click the following image for the full version of their draft records from 2000-2008 or click here.

 Year By Year Draft Summary

2000

DePodesta and Ricciardi can’t boast much success with this draft. Only two players even made it to the Major Leagues; Freddie Bynum .234 BA, and Marcus Gwyn 11.81 ERA. Omar Minaya on the other hand, netted six major leaguers in the first ten rounds, none however were star caliber players, but in this analysis there is strength in numbers.

Edge: Omar Minaya

2001

The Dynamic Duo fared much better in 2001 with seven players reaching the majors, three of them stuck around for more than a couple of years. Bobby Crosby won the Rookie of the Year with a .239 AVG and 141 K’s, but never reached such lofty numbers again because he was rendered a part time player the rest of his career. Jeremy Bonderman was also drafted in the first round, but was traded after as the player to be named later in a deal to acquire pitcher Ted Lilly. Lilly would only play one full season for the A’s before hitting free agency. Other guys who made it to the majors included Neal Cotts and Dan Johnson. Nobody from this 2001 haul is currently an active major leaguer.

Omar Minaya hit the jackpot in 2001 when the Mets selected perennial all star third baseman David Wright, and relief pitcher Aaron Heilman. Both are still gainfully employed. Third rounder Lenny DiNardo also made it to the majors and actually ended up pitching three seasons for, you guessed it, the Oakland A’s.

Edge: Omar Minaya by a landslide.

2002

Ricciardi is now running the show for the Blue Jays and four of his ten picks made it to The Show, the best of them being pitcher Dave Bush. However Bush was traded to the Brewers for Lyle Overbay before he got his feet wet as a Blue Jay. Ironically, the only other player he selected who had a few years in the Bigs was Russ Adams. Yes the same Russ Adams who officially retired as a Mets minor leaguer yesterday.

Depo had seven first round picks! Of those seven, notables included Nick Swisher, Joe Blanton and Mark Teahen. Swisher and Blanton are solid and have had some good seasons, Teahen not so much, but he was a part of the deal that sent Carlos Beltran to the Astros. The other eight rounds weren’t as fruitful.

Omar is now in Montreal working for MLB and being a caretaker for the cash-strapped Expos. Not being able to go over slot really hurt, and only Mike O’Connor is still around and was recently called up by the Mets.

Edge: Paul DePodesta

2003

Two years ago I would have told you I loved Aaron Hill, but he’s looking more and more like a one-year wonder for Ricciardi who selected him in the first round. However, Shawn Marcum was a nice find for J.P. in the third, but is now having a stellar start to the season for the Brewers. This was Depo’s last hurrah with Oakland and the one and only  player from this draft class to crack the major leagues for good was Andre Ethier, who would be traded 18 months later for Milton Bradley before he ever got at-bat with the A’s. Meanwhile, 2005 All Star and saves leader Chad Cordero racked up 20 wins, 128 saves, a 2.18 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP for Omar and his Expos before disaster struck and Cordero was felled by arm injuries.

Edge: Tied between Paul DePodesta and Omar Minaya 

2004

J.P. Ricciardi found himself a decent power hitting first baseman in the third round in Adam Lind, but that’s about all that came out of it for the Jays. The Dodgers were able to get utility infielder Blake Dewitt in this draft, but again nothing else to get excited about. Depo’s best pick was in the 19th round when he selected a 17 year old left-hander from Tennessee, but the kid decided he wanted to go to college. He resurfaced 4 years later when the Rays selected him with the number one overall pick. His name? David Price. Sorry Paul, you only get credit for those you sign. Omar probably couldn’t wait to get out of dodge in Montreal and his draft produced a few major leaguers in Ian Desmond, Collin Balester and Billy Bray, or in other words a whole lot of nothing.

Edge: J.P. Ricciardi

2005

I love Rickey Romero, who Ricciardi took in the first round. He’s a solid left-hander who had a good season last year and seems to be building on it this season. He’s racked up 67 starts for the Jays with a 3.90 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. So far, none of the other top ten rounds have yielded any major leaguers. DePodesta drafted Luke Hochevar with his first pick, but alas he snubbed the Dodgers for the second time and didn’t sign. But have hope Dodger fans, his second pick that year was Ivan DeJesus who is getting his cup of coffee as we speak and is batting a non robust .179 with a .320 OPS. Third baseman Josh Bell also got a cup of coffee in 2010, but the Dodgers decided they saw enough and he wasn’t invited back for the 2011 season after an ugly .214 AVG and .525 OPS. The Mets didn’t strike gold in 2006, but they did fare better than the Dodgers and Blue Jays garnering two-fifths of their starting rotation with Mike Pelfrey and Jon Niese, a hard throwing reliever in Bobby Parnell, their starting catcher Josh Thole, and even Pedro Beato was selected, but didn’t sign.

Edge: Omar Minaya

2006

The Blue Jays selected Travis Snyder with their top pick in 2006, the only player from their draft to make it to the majors. Snyder is still getting regular time as the Blue Jays left-fielder, but if he don’t improve on his .184 BA and .540 OPS, he may soon find himself back in the thin air of Las Vegas where numbers tend to be bloated as we saw with Brad Emaus. DePodesta didn’t draft in 2006, having been curbed by the Dodgers before the start of the season. As for Omar and the Mets, it’s a little complicated… You see, the Mets didn’t have a first round pick this year, but they did select Kevin Mulvey in the second round. So what right? Wrong, Mulvey was the jewel to the package that landed the Mets Johan Santana. The Mets also reaped an Irish lad by the name of Murphy who now lays claim to the second base job. Joe Smith who was the Mets second pick is carving out a nice career as a reliever for the Cleveland Indians.

Edge: Omar Minaya

2007

The Blue Jays did very well in selecting Brett Cecil who has become one of the key starters in their rotation and won 15 games in 2009, had a solid season in 2010, and is on his way to a good season this year. They also got a starting catcher out of the deal as well. Not much to brag about for Minaya or DePodesta in this draft, neither have anyone worth mentioning.

Edge: J.P. Ricciardi

2008

Depo is still waiting for someone to get to the majors from this draft class. His first pick was Allan Dykstra who was still struggling in Single-A when the Padres finally gave up on him and traded him to the Mets last month for Eddie Kunz. Dykstra has a 30% strikeout rate and a .234 professional batting average. The Mets front office, where Depo now resides, decided that Dykstra was worthy of a promotion so he now flails in Binghamton, where they could use a stiff breeze this time of the year. Ricciardi hasn’t had any major leaguers come out of this draft class either. In 2008, the Blue Jays had the #17 pick in the draft and they selected David Cooper. You know him right? He’s the player that was selected right before the Mets took… Ike Davis. Oh yeah, Omar Minaya hit pay-dirt in 2008 and the Mets have been reaping the benefits of this draft for well over a year now and may have even found themselves a core player who may supplant the chosen one, David Wright. In addition to Ike Davis, the Mets have a few other highly regarded prospects on the way in Reese Havens, Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Brad Holt.

Edge: Omar Minaya

The Tale Of The Tape

Omar Minaya: 5 W – 3 L – 1 T

J.P. Ricciardi: 2 W – 6 L – 0 T

Paul DePodesta: 1 W – 7 L – 1 T

Final Thoughts

According to my scorecard, Omar Minaya blew away the field. In the final analysis, Omar Minaya drafted more Major League players than J.P. Ricciardi and Paul DePodesta combined since 2000. Omar Minaya has netted twice as many All Star players as Depo and J.P. combined. The mythology that prevails in the MMO Chat Room is just that, mythology. The new guys are not better talent evaluators than Omar Minaya and never have been. Maybe some day they may match the accomplishments of Omar Minaya, but we won’t know that until they first have at least 4-5 successful drafts. The Draft Record is there for you to see for yourself.

This Fan Post was written by and contributed by Met Maniac.

But being a huge Pelfrey supporter does not make me one of those apologists. I call myself jokingly a “homer” but I am a realistic optimist when it comes to him. Of course I have a soft spot in my heart for home grown talent and especially for home grown pitchers, but I am realistic in acknowledging that Mike Pelfrey’s start this season is a cause for concern.

What I don’t appreciate is when Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo were let go by the Mets organization that most people were looking to find their next scapegoat. I was surprised when I heard most people wanting to go after Mike Pelfrey, a guy who just won 15 games the year prior. But it was an easy target: after all, we knew he was a head case and here was Mets manager Terry Collins putting the label “ace” on him with the absence of Johan Santana. Now, I know Mike Pelfrey isn’t the “ace” of a rotation with or without Johan Santana, and probably will never be…But outside of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee (of course those two are bad examples since they are on the same team), Tim Lincecum, CC Sabathia and Felix Hernandez, are there truly “aces” like the way we were schooled on them (like the Tom Seavers, Nolan Ryans, Dwight Goodens, Sandy Koufax, Don Drysdale, Juan Marichal, etc) left in baseball today?

But that’s not even the question here. What I want to know is the following about starting Mike Pelfrey or keeping him around at all…when he’s playing for an NL East team and he pitches HORRIBLY against NL East teams???

Here’s a newsflash folks: It’s not about his head, it’s not about whether he’s good or not, whether he’s a fly ball pitcher or strikeout pitcher or whatever, it’s the fact that he can’t perform well against any NL East team on the road.

Against NL East teams, here is a sampling of Mike Pelfrey’s career numbers against NL East teams. 

                                  .

Source: Baseball Reference

These are teams he’s going to face the most over a given time season. He has GOT to bring it better than what the numbers show above.

But to add insult to injury, he seems to only perform decently against these teams while at CitiField. Did you know he’s never won a game at Nationals Park in four starts? And he’s got an over NINE ERA against the Phillies in Citizens Bank Park! No wonder Ryan Howard can tee off him there!

                                                                  .

Source: Baseball Reference

Needless to say, those numbers are pretty atrocious, barring any start against any other team. While Pelfrey has been consistently inconsistent at times in his career, the fact is he’s been abysmal against the very teams that he has to absolutely step up his game.

Why are we discussing this now? Clearly, I was willing to give the benefit of the doubt to Sandy Alderson and the crew backing him up in JP Ricciardi and Paul DePodesta. After all, they didn’t make any rash decisions until they were able to see the team perform; they didn’t go wild and crazy with the free agency market and setting the team back even further; they were able to cut ties with those who needed to (Pedro Feliciano ,Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo) and round out the rest of the team and bullpen with some high-reward low-risk types (Chris Young, Chris Capuano, and Jason Isringhausen to name a few).

If I can be pleased that they didn’t jump the gun simply for jumping it, I have to say that I am dismayed at a few things. One is that I’ve been thrown under the bus for suggesting Angel Pagan should have been traded in the offseason. I still believe they could have gotten better value for him then. Two is that for a front office team that is so heavily reliant on stats, the decision should have been a no-brainer: the 20/20 hindsight of trading Mike Pelfrey at his high value.

It’s not even trading him at his high value. Mike Pelfrey, while he has shown some glimmers of hope and talent there over the years, is maddeningly inconsistent against NL East teams. If a schmoe blogger like myself can easily look up some stats on Baseball Reference, chances are they dropped the ball on this. Now, Pelfrey has shown that he’s got issues again, and unless he has a bounceback month (which I won’t totally rule out), the fact is the Mets aren’t going to get any value for Mike Pelfrey whatsoever. At least, to the extent of what they’ve invested in him already.

Look, don’t get me wrong. I love Mike Pelfrey. No one wants to see him succeed more than me (well, maybe I know a few others over at Brooklyn Met Fan who do). I am also of the frame of mind that if he can succeed elsewhere I can put my homerism aside and let him be the best he can be someplace else. His stats suggest that he’s been successful against AL East teams (of all things) and against NL Central teams. Some team wouldn’t have wanted to take a gander at him?

Most of all, I believe that when Mike Pelfrey leaves, he’ll come back to bite us in the ass, Nolan Ryan-style. I can see Big Pelf being a force on another team. To me, sad as I am to admit to it, his time may have come and gone here in New York. I just wish that it didn’t take a month into the season for everyone to realize this.

If the latter thought tags me as an optimist, then consider my glass half-full (but bartender, please keep the refills comin’).  Yet, the dialogue has continued into the organization’s past, present and future.  Present times it’s easy: the Mets are going on hungrier talent from within, plus a few reclamation projects with some upside and an intact core of talent that’s getting older (but on good days we can see why they were once the Children of our Future).  The future we see in fuzzier terms.  The new brass has a plan and while able to listen to the rumblings of fans in the current construct, they are willing to take a more patient approach in internal growing.  As for the past, well, it’s evident in seeing David Wright, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, among others.  But we know after this season, one of those three will still certainly be a Met…

This brings me to a cycle of abuse that the Mets have had historically, not just in the free-spending Omar Minaya administration, but even dating back to the M. Donald Grant days.  Couple that with since basically the Joe McIlvaine days (which in baseball parlance, lasted about 15 minutes), there hasn’t been a steady draft or even a drafting plan.  It’s a double-edged sword, building one’s team.  If one chooses to do the free agent route, one has to part with many first round draft picks and harbor questions about future performance.  If you go the prospect route, some of them might not pan out, but can be used as bargaining chips to solidify teams that are one or two pieces away from it all.

If you’ve read the Maple Street Press Mets Annual 2011, two pieces addressed these very issues.  Jon Springer, of Mets by the Numbers fame, wrote a piece on the Mets history of free agency dealings titled “I’ll Buy That For A Dollar,” while Toby Hyde of Mets Minor League blog wrote a piece on the last draft that Sandy Alderson, Paul DePodesta and JP Ricciardi are working around called “Back Draft: Same Old Song in the Last Minaya Draft.”  By the way, if you haven’t read the MSP Mets Annual, well…why haven’t you?

Springer lays the foundation for the Mets history of free agency, starting mostly in the M. Donald Grant era, which famously lost two superstars in Tom Seaver and Dave Kingman to begin with, then set off a chain of events that kept the Mets from not only being uncompetitive, but being basically rock bottom in anything.  The idea, Grant suggested, is that “we’re sportsmen — we’re not in it for the money,” until, Springer relates, money got involved.  Grant went on to say that by not going after high-profile free agents that he was keeping costs low and visiting the ballpark as a cost that was within reach.  This in and of itself was a double-edged sword.  If he wasn’t putting money into the team, why should the fans?  We see some of that now, except prices are high for free-spending at CitiField these days, but with absolutely nothing to show for it except for some guys who are still being paid to potentially play for other teams.

However, it wasn’t for lack of trying.  In a twist of fate, they showed interest in Gary Matthews, Sr. (you may remember his son, who had a bloated free agent contract himself with the Angels), but was about $750K less than what he eventually signed for.  You see, we did show interest, we felt we gave him a fair offer but it was trumped.  However, how much of it was a low-balling-let’s-hope-he-really-doesn’t-take-it offer?

Even Frank Cashen’s days weren’t without free agent drama.  For a General Manager who was revered as a visionary in his time, and is even a charter member of the Mets Hall of Fame, his luck with free agents wasn’t all that great.  Take for instance losing out on the Dave Winfield sweepstakes, who went to cross-town rivals the Yankees, and settling for George Foster instead.  This appears to be a common thread in Mets lore.  Even though Minaya didn’t show interest or visibly anyway, settling for Jason Bay who was the “second best guy” in the free agent pool in the going-into-2010-season, after Matt Holliday.  It’s tough to judge who might have been the better signing, but that’s neither here nor there.  The point is, the Mets have had to settle for “sloppy seconds” in the free agency pools.  How much of it was perception of playing with the Mets (did anyone truly prefer playing in Queens as opposed to the Bronx or anywhere else for that matter?) or was it that they truly felt they were giving what they thought was fair market value and allowed FAs to walk out?

Springer even relates how the Mets lost out on Darryl Strawberry going into 1991 as a free agent.  After negotiations went south with a contract extension, Cashen panicked and had to instead give extra money to Vince Coleman.  A few firecrackers later, we know how that one turned out.  Here’s the thing though: if Cashen maybe was a little more serious about keeping Strawberry, perhaps not lowball him (even though Straw made it clear he’d wanted to play for his hometown team, the Dodgers).  Overall, this attitude seems to be one that pervades even more recent teams.  Let’s overpay the guy we didn’t really want just to say we got him.

Like I said, a cycle of crash and burn that ended with the release of Castillo and Perez.

Springer did a good job of intermingling the drafts in between those times.  Cashen was gifted in that he was able to trade off some valuable pieces he inherited for value (take for instance his deal that sent fan favorite Lee Mazzilli to the Texas Rangers for Walt Terrell – who in turn ended up into Howard Johnson — and Ronnie Darling, whom we still hear today).  Creativity is something that had to come into play, but if a General Manager lacked that acumen, it meant trouble.  Not saying that only happens to the Mets, but we follow them so closely, it does hit close to home.

The idea is that in the last few years, the farm system is a little middle-of-the-road, too MOTR for Alderson’s liking as he’s said, which is how Toby Hyde starts his discussion with “Development is Job One.”   It’s a misnomer that big market teams should spend big; they should also develop big to use as bargaining chips or to have them become superstars after development.  It’s clear after reading Hyde’s piece that the Mets system isn’t neglected nor barren: it just needs some structure.

Which leads into the “Back Draft” piece.  An issue that seems to pervade the front office thinking is that there is a strict adherence to the slotting guidelines set forth by the Commisioner.  I think this is something that needs to change, personally, and perhaps we will see these changes with this so-called executive dream team.  However, the last draft was indicative of previous Minaya drafts: “parallels continued into specific picks” according to Hyde.  Minaya liked to collect arms; I guess one could argue there is no such thing as too much pitching, but on the other hand, it doesn’t give a lot of diversification in building around a core unit.  The good news is that there is some bona fide talent in the system such as Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Cory Vaughn and Matt den Denker.  The bad news, if you can even call it that, it will take a few years before they are truly “ready.”  Perhaps Nieuwenhuis is the closest, according to Hyde’s estimates.

These two, actually three, articles jumped out at me because we’ve discussed this ad nauseum on the boards here at Metsmerized Online, and even in person when I get together to discuss Mets baseball with other fans.  The free agency cycle for the Mets has caused horrific crashing and burning that we’ve had to sit through and deal with, while the farm system lays barren that was mostly done to keep progress of winning teams going.

It backfired.  We’ve seen more bad than good come out of that.  I think it’s high time to try another route, one that won’t cause these dramatic peaks and valleys that make me write 1500 word posts.  In any event, ESPN came out with a piece on how the Mets are paying their dumped players the most.  Along with all the other poor contracts they got out of in the early 2000s, it’s evident that the cycle needs to end.  Period.

In the meantime, I highly suggest reading the Maple Street Press.  If I can get this much out of it, imagine what you can!

No matter how accurately you valued past performance, it was still an uncertain guide to future performance. If it were perfect by design then the players would be digital representations of themselves and seasons would be played out on a computer, with Las Vegas putting Johnny’s college fund on the line as to whether David Ortiz would ever regain his pre-performance enhanced game or not. But the game is played on the field and not in some cyberspace vacuum.

Actually I feel sorry for guys like Podesta and Beane. The purest of the Sabermetricians seem to take no joy from the game, for that is subjective emotion and clouds ones’ judgment. I suppose in their positions I can understand their reluctance, but I still find that to be a profoundly sad and lonely place to be. To not allow yourself to enjoy what you want to enjoy so badly is borderline Greek tragedy.

I happen to be someone who appreciates the value of finding…value, especially where it is least apparent. For years I would argue with friends and family about why the mid to late 90′s Yankees were better then any of their later teams.

To me it was obvious that players like Scott Brosius, Paul O’Neill, Tino Martinez and even Chuck Knoblauch shared a similar trait among them; plate patience with the ability to get on base. They would work the count deeper and battle the opposing pitcher so much that in little time their opponent’s weakness was exposed – their bullpens.

Lets face it if relievers were all that great they’d be starters so to me, it made sense to wear the starter down. Those particular Yankee teams embodied that premise. That’s part of the core of Saber and never once did that dawn on me at the time.

I don’t fully agree with all of Sabermetrics rationale, such as the idea that there is no such thing as a “clutch hitter”, that luck is simply the answer. Some players do well under pressure. Some don’t. Is it any different to see someone like Derek Jeter elevate his game in the postseason as it was when Michael Jordan would at times will the Chicago Bulls into dominance during the NBA Finals or perhaps Joe Montana in the Super Bowl?

Now can it be scientifically dissected and explained? Of course not, if it could I’m sure Alex Rodriguez would be one of the first to feast on the knowledge. Luck certainly plays a part in every game as I’m sure a player like Bucky Dent would admit, but talent tends to rise when need be, exceptional talent that is.

To quantify a player who excels in the spotlight – consistently – by saying his success is pure luck does a disservice to the game. Just like trying to prove the existence of God; in the end you either have faith or you don’t. And to those who argue that it’s simply luck – who would you rather have hitting with two outs, the bases loaded and down by a run in the post season – Derek Jeter or A-Rod?

When you look at the 2010 New York Mets and do a comparison to Team X – we’ll call them Team X for now – you may be surprised to say the least. First off the Mets scored 656 runs, 13th in the NL. Team X scored 697 9th in the NL. The Mets had a .314 OBP raking 14th in the NL and Team X had a .321 OBP for 9th in the NL. The Mets walked 502 times with Team X walking 487 times. Ranking both 12th and 13th in the NL.  Comparitively, their pitching were both outstanding.  The Mets allowed 652 runs, 11th best in the NL while Team X just 583 which was second best in the NL.  Considering the Mets pitching staff from 2010, it’s remarkable.

Which leads me back to the glaring difference being the 41 runs scored differential between the two. If you don’t know by now Team X happens to be the World Champion San Francisco Giants. Just take into account if the Mets had full, average seasons from Beltran, Reyes and Bay, that run differential might be a bit different, no?

The need going into the 2011 season for the Mets will be to acquire a starting pitcher, especially since Johan Santana will be out optimistically until the All Star break. How much are the Mets willing to spend and on whom happens to be the key question. We’ve seen Jon Garland go the Dodgers for a one year $5 million dollar deal and Javier Vasquez go the Marlins for a one year $7 million dollar deal.

I just don’t see the Mets spending that kind of money, period. One of the hallmarks of Saber is finding hidden value in players that others cannot or have not seen. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Alderson go after a player like Justin Duchscherer.

The former Oakland Athletic has had a barrage of injuries the past few years and has dealt with clinical depression. When healthy he’s one of the better arms in the game – when healthy – and since he’s coming off of an injury he may be willing to accept a lower end deal that’s incentive laden.

Another pitcher coming off an injury that may be affordable is Chris Young formerly of the Padres. Sandy Alderson certainly knows everything there is to know about Young and as long as he’s healthy, he too may be of interest. The bottom line, the Mets are not going to spend their way to a championship, at least not in a flashy Omar Minaya-esque kind of way.

The Mets are going to be in the market for Rick Reed type pitchers and that is more than fine with me. I’m sure we’ll hear names that we’ve hardly heard of before being bantered around to fill out the rotation. That’s where having a front office of executives schooled in the art of finding value in players becomes irreplaceable.

I know MMO has touched on Sabermetrics a few weeks back so many of you might think I’m a bit late on the subject. Maybe so but in all honesty I wanted to read Moneyball for myself before going on the record. Sabermetrics isn’t some new age alchemy, it’s taking existing statistics but looking at them in a different way.

Do I believe that a team of Scott Hattebergs would be good for the Mets? Probably not. But, plate discipline is the foundation to greater success offensively. I wonder what Ted Williams would’ve said about Sabermetrics? I have a feeling he’d actually agree on many of the principles especially when it comes to hitting as I have come to as well.

I guess Hale, in particular, has a chance to throw a Hail Mary and get the job. But this is as close to a rigged event as possible with Collins as the favorite and Melvin as a very in-the-competition second choice.

If this is in fact the situation, then why is it taking so long to declare a manager and then assess the roster from that point forward?

The Mets and their public relations team have made a valiant effort to keep the fanbase informed on every move, but I think in some cases what the fanbase really wants is to know the new manager of the New York Mets and restore some hope and faith in the culture of the clubhouse. The two managerial hopefuls are both well-liked by the Three Headed Front Office, and it would really be difficult to see Hale or Backman fly ahead of these two guys. Both Melvin and Collins have MLB experience with varying degrees of success, and maybe the outside chance candidates are being groomed to be bench coaches for the Mets.

How this affects the overall offseason plan is fairly obvious. Sandy Alderson wants to run the team and have the manager to do just that – manage his players. But knowing which manager is in place makes a major difference because the whole coaching staff could change at a manager’s preference.

The decision should be made hopefully within the next three days, since second interviews are wrapping up soon. The front office overhaul has already begun the change. Now bringing in a manager who will instill the beliefs of the organization and hard work is the primary concern from this point forward.

Let’s just hope they hire the right guy, because all the cards have been falling into place for a franchise reboot without the rebuilding period.