Left field has always been used as a kind of defensive dumping ground for many teams trying to find a way to get a bat in the lineup.  Not requiring the arm strength considered de rigueur for Right, and less daunting in the presence of a fleet centerfielder, it is often a place for players whose offense demands playing time, but are not “natural” outfielders and have been blocked from a preferred position by a regular or superior defender.

Even good glovemen have been known to regard the territory with disdain: following his trade to the Texas Rangers, Lee Mazzilli reacted to being shifted from center to left to accommodate Rangers’ rookie George Wright by referring to his new spot in the outfield as “an idiot’s position.” Surely an overly harsh judgment, but objectively, it is accepted baseball wisdom that players with less speed, weaker throwing arms, and generally questionable glove skills are best relegated to the “low glamor” pasture to best hide their defensive shortcomings. All of this is assuming, of course, that their bats will provide sufficient thump to offset the inevitable consequences of their less-than-stellar glove work.

The Mets have certainly tried their fair share of square pegs in that particular round hole. After acquiring Mike Piazza, an attempt was made to shift the suddenly superfluous Todd Hundley to left. It didn’t end well. And we all still have the memories of Daniel Murphy’s adventures there fresh in our minds. Hopefully, his apparently successful adaptation to second base will help them fade soon.

Now we have the Dude. After appearing primarily in RF last season, Lucas has been shifted across the field to replace the departed Jason Bay, a player whose offensive woes notwithstanding, provided average to, at times, above average defense. But Bay’s glove could not carry his bat, and the Mets clearly expect much more in terms of offense from Duda.

Interestingly, it is not as if Duda is playing an unfamiliar position (even though it might appear that way), having logged 296 games in LF while in the minors. He spent considerable time in the outfield during his collegiate career as well although he seems to have been primarily a first-sacker during his early days at USC. Regardless, it has been his power potential as reflected by his imposing stature as well as the occasionally notable outburst of big flies in his minor league career (e.g. a run of 5 consecutive games with a homer during his 2010 campaign with Buffalo) that have led Mets management to install him in LF and hope for the best.

The tutelage of Mets outfield coach Tom Goodwin and careful positioning may combine to neutralize some of the more glaring holes in the Dude’s game, although if the play involving Rob Brantley’s drive to the left-field corner during the Marlin game on April 7 is any indication, there is plenty more work to be done. He does have a good arm, having pitched and served as the closer on his high school team.

So, the question remains as to what course of action would be best for Mets management to follow given the various scenarios that could develop with Duda’s career. On the one hand, he is a relatively young (27) controllable player (2 years from arbitration eligibility and 5 from free agency) that has shown flashes of power, probably the scarcest resource in the Met system. On the other hand, with his size and relative lack of foot speed, he profiles more closely as a first baseman, a spot likely currently occupied by Ike Davis. Accordingly, I foresee one of four possible scenarios developing:

1. His bat develops as the team hopes, and he becomes a consistent 25-30 HR and 100 RBI threat whose game-breaking ability outweighs his mediocre defensive metrics. He remains in LF as long as feasible.
2. His bat develops as the team hopes, etc., and he becomes a valuable trade chip, perhaps to a team in the AL where he can DH or to a team in either league with a vacancy at 1B. The resultant return being either a “true” outfielder with comparable offensive skills, a “true” outfielder with complimentary offensive skills (i.e. speed, high OBP), or a package of high minor level talent to help plug various positions (e.g. outfield, bullpen).
3. His bat develops as the team hopes, etc. and the team finds a better trade match for Ike Davis who is dealt for the resources described previously and Duda is installed at 1B.
4. His bat continues to tease but he does not take the next step to that of a consistent power threat fast enough, at which point his defense becomes truly problematic.  Team management is then left with a choice of using him as a role player or getting what they can for him in the trade market.

I can envision his development taking the favorable path. He has shown a good eye at the plate, although his patience has at times been criticized as a lack of properly channeled aggression by some. He has exhibited a reasonable ability to hit left handers in his career, albeit with somewhat reduced power. He is at the age where many players enter their time of greatest production.

What sets great lineups apart from merely good ones are what follow the four hole and gives the batting order “length.” When Travis d’Arnaud arrives, he likely projects as a number five hitter, keeping the preferred left/right alternation in place behind Davis, assuming Davis gets his act together. If Duda can fill the slot of the sixth place hitter consistently (there’s that word again), the Mets should have excellent run production.

As the first six weeks of the season wraps up, Duda has seen his stats across the board decline sharply. In April he was among the league leaders with a .436 OBP and .978 OPS while batting mostly sixth or seventh in the lineup.

However, when May rolled around, Terry Collins began batting Duda in the cleanup and five spot and the results so far have been disastrous. In 13 games this month, Duda has a .119/.191/.357 batting line in 49 at-bats which have all but erased the gains he made in April. He does have eight home runs and a very respectable .355 on-base, but somehow he leaves you wanting more. He’s become quite the enigma. It’s still early in the season, and it’s not like the Mets have any better options at the ready, but he needs to start showing some aggression and start swinging and making contact with some of those strikes that just seem to pass him by.

I was driving in to work and listening to WFAN today, much like I would on any other day. I happened to hear Joe & Evan discussing some quotes from LaTroy Hawkins and Marlon Byrd regarding the incident that took recently place with Jordany Valdespin, when he got hit by a pitch, in what seemed to be a show of revenge from tossing his bat after a home run, in a lopsided loss to the Pirates.

Joe & Evan said that the quotes really give a taste for how much the Mets dislike their teammate, and his immaturity…after reading the quotes, you can be the judge.

Here are the quotes from Hawkins, and a couple of other Mets, from USA Today:

LaTroy Hawkins

“I couldn’t believe he did that, we were all dumbfounded. It was a bonehead thing to do. And to do that against Jose Contreras? He’s old enough to be his father, and one of the nicest guys in the world. What were we supposed to do there? We were down six runs, he hits a home run and he acts like it’s a walk-off. This isn’t Little League.”

“What, now we’re supposed to get into a fight for that? We’re supposed to throw at somebody because he did a bonehead thing? Now, if they throw at him for no reason, that’s a different story. We protect our team. But to do what he did put us in a bad spot, a real bad spot.”

“He showed absolutely no respect. If you’re going to pimp it, you’re going to suffer the consequences. I have no problem defending my teammates, but some things, you just can’t defend against. He’s created a lot of unnecessary tension around here.”

“Sometimes you have to look yourself in the mirror. He’s got to ask himself, ‘What can I do to gain the respect back from my teammates?’ And he’s got to come up with that answer on his own.”

“For some reason, he doesn’t want to do things the right way. He wants to do it the hard way. Hopefully, he’ll figure it out, because he’s got a chance to be a damn good ballplayer.”

Marlon Byrd

“The Pirates did what you were supposed to do. They just sent a message that you don’t do that. We would have done the same thing to another team. Any of the 29 other teams would do the same thing. Anybody around baseball who knows anything about the game knows that’s what’s supposed to happen. It should have been done and over with.”

According to USA Today, Byrd has already counseled Valdespin many times this season.

Terry Collins

“I tried to explain to him that if you were a (expletive) star or a big-time star and you do that, you might get away with it, but we’re getting beat 7-1 with a 12-year veteran on the mound. Come on.”

“I don’t care what the fans think. This is the big leagues. It’s a big-man’s game. I told him, look, it’s not about you. It’s about us. It’s about the team. We’re all trying to teach you a lesson here. We’ll see if he gets it.”

David Wright

“The easiest way to describe this is that it’s stupid. The whole incident is stupid. It’s gotten way too much attention. This thing should have been over, and now it’s turned into a life of its own. To read these reports how we don’t have his back and how we don’t care about him is absolutely ridiculous. It couldn’t be further from the truth. It’s ridiculous.”

David Wright is sticking to his neutral stance, but the other quotes were pretty strong. Even if a teammate does something stupid, you come to their defense. If a teammate makes an error, you pick him up. If he strikes out in a clutch spot, you pat him on the back and tell him we’ll get them next time. If he gets plunked on purpose, you come to his defense, regardless of the events that led up to the plunking.

Ankiel is a good outfielder, even though during his debut with the Mets, he dropped a ball. But, I will give it to him for going all out and diving for the ball, and the fact that he didn’t have his own glove because he had to have it shipped, so it wasn’t available for him to play with. So far he is hitless in two games with two strikeouts.

I know we don’t have anyone on the team that can be the power boost that we need right now, but it feels like Terry Collins hasn’t even given most of the guys like Lagares and Valdespin real time to audition.  Will Ankiel be the player that we need?  Will he turn his mediocre season around and turn back the clock to 2008 when he batted .285 with 25 HR and 71 RBI?

Even anything near those numbers will be what the doctor ordered for the Mets.  But his 37 strikeouts in 65 at bats will not help the Mets. Was there a better option for the Mets out there? Should they have given him a guaranteed major league deal off the bat?  I am not stating Ankiel won’t play hard for his new team, but just wondering if there might have been a better option. Of course, I hope Ankiel proves me wrong and plays a high a level.

I begin to wonder what this will mean for players like Mike Baxter and Jordany Valdespin. If they’ll end up relegated to pinch hitting duty, you can only have so many bench players related to left-handed pinch hitting on a team. Furthermore, if Baxter continues to share right field with Marlon Byrd, where does that leave JV1 specfically? Now I don’t have any inside information on that, but if Ankiel can put up the numbers that the Mets expect and play decent defense, then someone may just be expendable.

The offense has been struggling mightily as of late, not scoring more than five runs in a game since May 3rd, and a change in personnel with some fresh blood might shake a few things up. Unfortunately, it could just be a ruse where we will end up seeing more of the same. I don’t have a solution to our problem, and I’m not sure if Ankiel is the answer, but I definitely hope things don’t get any worse.

Where would this team be without Matt Harvey?

Is it safe to say that as of this moment, the only proven and legit core player under the age of 30 this team has is The Dark Knight of Gotham?

I like Jon Niese a lot, but is he a core player? Or just an number three pitcher who plays the role of an ace on a very bad team?

I quickly threw some numbers into a spreadsheet and I can’t believe how appalling the numbers are once you take Harvey out of the equation.

Two of our top three starters have ERA’s of 5.93 for Jon Niese and 6.13 for Dillon Gee. Our number four starter, Jeremy Hefner has got them both beat with a 4.28 ERA. You may recall me saying back in January that he would be a sleeper and best choice for fifth starter? (Hey Alex68, remember this? Underrated????? SMH!!!)

Then you have the pitcher who was supposed to help replace R.A. Dickey‘s innings in Shaun Marcum. The Mets gave marcum a guaranteed $4 million dollars and in return he’s already missed one month and since his debut is averaging 4.1 innings in three starts and has a team worst 8.31 ERA.

Mets pitchers are now officially the worst in the National League and second worst in the Major Leagues. And that’s with Matt Harvey who is in the top five in over a half dozen pitching categories.

That’s kind of embarrassing, wouldn’t you say?

Gee has been the latest starter to deliver an abysmal performance after allowing six runs and nine hits against the Cardinals last night in 4.0 innings.

“I don’t know what’s going on. I don’t even know what to say, really. I didn’t feel all that bad tonight”, said Gee after the game. “Physically I feel great. There’s nothing going on there. I don’t know. I’m kind of lost.”

You don’t say?

Gee and Co. is partly why the Mets bullpen has been as abysmal as it has. They are burning through arms at an unprecedented rate. Six weeks in and already eight transactions related to the bullpen alone. And it’s not as if it was a great bullpen to begin with. It was put together with sticks and Krazy Glue.

So while everyone is piling on when it comes to the Mets offense, the truth of the matter is that this team is quite atrocious on all fronts. Take a look at the evidence:

METS PITCHING RANKINGS

METS HITTING RANKINGS

That stinks to high heaven. It’s a shock to the system to even look at those awful, awful numbers.

I can tell you right now that Zack Wheeler and Travis d’Arnaud alone are not going to fix that. In fact I think it’s a sin that those two are being setup for an unfair amount of undue pressure, as if trying to stick in the majors wasn’t already challenging enough.

On Wednesday, Sandy Alderson seemed concerned that Wheeler is being looked upon as some sort of savior and he admitted to Mike Francesa that he wasn’t. But the fact that both he and d’Arnaud will be walking into this disaster is going to be something to behold and I don’t mean that in a good way. I wonder how they will handle it, and God forbid if they don’t produce immediate results and hit the ground running.

The other day on Twitter I tossed out the suggestion of just letting both of them stay at Triple-A and don’t bring them up unless this team turns it around. Losing is contagious. I know you all know that. If this is what those two kids are going to walk into, I’d rather wait and call them up in September.

At least in September they can come up without the pressure of having to carry a team that was poorly constructed. It’s bad enough that Matt Harvey has had to deal with this. I totally feel sorry for that kid. On any other team, but the Mets, Harvey would probably be 8-0 right now.

I don’t know if this is rock bottom, but heaven help us if it isn’t and it continues to get worse.

Come on, admit it… At one time or another you made a joke about Daniel Murphy at second base since the day he took over the position once Jose Reyes was not re-signed and Ruben Tejada slid over to shortstop.

Was the criticism harsh and often times deserved? Maybe… Maybe not… Ok, yes it was…

But seeing is believing and when I mentioned how much better Murphy has been defensively a couple of weeks ago on Twitter, you all know you’ve seen the dramatic improvement as well. He has been passing the eye test.

So enter ESPN’s resident Mets historian and statistical guru Mark Simon, who wrote an interesting post yesterday about the porous Mets defense overall this season.

Hidden within that gem of an article, I found this:

Daniel Murphy has been the Mets’ most improved defensive player. He was charged with -11 Defensive Runs Saved last season, but is holding steady at a major-league average of zero Defensive Runs Saved through 240 innings in 2013.

The biggest difference for Murphy has been in how he converts the double play. Last season, he converted only 13 of his first 30 attempts (43 percent) as either relay man or pivot man. This season, he’s 24-of-35 (68 percent).

If other Mets could show the improvement that Murphy has, it would go a long way in making them a better team.

Wow, how amazing is that?

I’M FINALLY WITH 28!

It’s not alarming the Mets couldn’t do anything against Hudson, but what should be a source of concern is Niese, who was hit hard in his fourth straight start – all lost by the Mets – and this one by the score of 9-4 against a division rival.

Manager Terry Collins said Niese was too strong and overthrew his pitches, leading to his lack of control. Collins gave his pitcher an out, but Niese didn’t take it, saying he can’t afford to have games like this.

“He just had no feel today”, Collins said. “It’s been seven days since he pitched and he was a little strong. He didn’t have good command.”

Niese gave up seven runs, all of them earned, on seven hits and six walks in four innings, and has been rocked for 14 runs in his last four starts totaling 19 innings, but wanted to put this start in particular behind him.

“Today is one of those outings that I just want to forget about,” Niese said after the game. “I walked way too many guys. It’s embarrassing.”

One of those games was April 23, when he took a hard comebacker off his right ankle and lasted just 2.1 innings. With Saturday’s rainout and today’s off day, the four innings worked by the bullpen shouldn’t be too taxing.

Another pitcher who will have seven days between starts, will be Tuesday’s starter Matt Harvey. The hope is that he won’t be “too strong” as Collins said about Niese. That’s assuming you buy into that theory.

The study took a considerable sampling of data and integrated a comprehensive review of previous research. It focussed on whether or not replacement managers were able to generate increased output from individual players.

I’d read some reviews of the study prior to actually reading the study itself (waiting for adobe to update), and most of the secondary commentary seemed to take the study’s abstract conclusions and run with them without bothering to look into the text, which appeared, (at least to this reader) to be speckled with disclaimers and reservations. To be fair, numerous readers took issue with the fact that by looking strictly at individual performance the study neglected the ultimate benchmark — winning — which is potentially problematic because winning and individual performance don’t always correlate. By looking strictly at performance, however, you eliminate strength of schedule as a factor, not to mention the impact of injuries, trades, changes in batting order and so on.

The author estimated the impact of managers on player performance using a sample of major-league baseball players from 1980 to 2009, available from Baseball-Databank.org. He estimated Equation 1 using the Baltagi and Wu (1999) random-effects method, which corrects for detected first-order serial correlation.

(1) Performanceiy = γ Manageriy+ β1 League Performancey + β2 Career Performancei + β3 Ageiy + β4 Ageiy2 + θ Parkiy + νi+ εiy

Performance is the individual performance of player i in year y. Manager is a vector of individual manager dummy variables. For hitters, performance is measured using on-base-plus-slugging (OPS), which is a simple metric for measuring how effective a hitter is at producing runs. For pitchers, performance is measured using earned run average (ERA). The coefficients for the dummy variables in vector γ should reflect the impact that individual managers have on player output. League Performance is the league average OPS for hitters and league average ERA for pitchers. The league average controls for fluctuations in run scoring in the leagues may cause deviations in performance across leagues and over time. Career Performance measures the quality of the observed players by averaging the performance of each player over his entire career, which normally spans several managers.

Of the 134 managers in the sample, the estimates for 25 managers are statistically significant at the ten-percent level for hitters. 21 managers are associated with improvement and four managers are associated with a decline. For pitchers, the estimates for 24 managers are statistically significant at the ten-percent level. 15 managers are associated with player improvement and nine managers are associated with a performance decline. Five managers are associated with improvement and decline for both groups; however, in all cases, the managers are associated with the opposite effect for the two groups of players. Thus, no manager is associated with improving performance for both offense and defense.
The results indicate that if managers have some influence on player performance, the impact is small and difficult to identify.

Baseball Between the Numbers, analyst James Click also tried to tease some signs of managerial impact out of statistical record but came up empty. After examining the measurable effect of in-game strategies (bunting, stolen bases, intentional walks), wins and losses relative to run differential, playing time distribution, in-game substitutions (pinch-hitters, relief pitchers, and defensive replacements), and direct impact on player performance (coaching), Click was unable to find evidence of a repeatable skill in any one of those five areas for any of the 456 managers he studied. That is to say that, much like clutch hitting, individual performances varied so much from season to season that the results appeared to be as much the result of chance as anything else.

There was also the 2006 study by James Cliff in which he stated:

“Only six times in thirty-three years has any manager used sacrifice attempts, stolen base attempts, and intentional walks to increase his team’s win expectation over an entire season. Even the best managers cost their team more than a game per season by employing these tactics. At worst they can cost a team three games per season.”

Finally, Chris Jaffe wrote a definitive and comprehensive analysis of Manager competency and effect in his book, Evaluating Baseball’s Managers. A History and Analysis of Performance in the Major Leagues, 1876-2008. (highly recommended). In it he more or less shows that good managers don’t have much of an effect, and even bad managers don’t do as much harm as you might think.

Independent of whatever considerable support the argument that managers don’t matter may have, I still have my reservations. In the first study above, OPS doesn’t correlate with winning as much as several other statistics, namely runs scored, but even more troublesome is one very problematic variable – the unearned run.

Unearned runs are not like other runs, they are the neglected stepchildren of baseball, they are the runt of the litter that nobody wants, they are the ugly babies that the Spartans would throw off a cliff. The problem with unearned runs is that outside of an error here or there, no one is truly accountable for them. Defensive metrics being what they are, a study that looks at changes in offensive output and ERA doesn’t control for runs that cross the plate that are unearned. The unearned run can be a death knell in the late innings. It can also be an indication that defensive alignment isn’t what it should be, fundamental defensive practices may not be in place, and players may simply not be well coached.

Defense appeared to be lumped together as one of many variables affecting ERA. Compounding this problem is the fact that the unearned run may be a direct result of poor defense. This omission renders  an entire competitive dimension (team defense) inconsequential, when any fan can tell you it is not.

You can make a strong argument that while a player can rise to the major leagues on a given set of abilities such as hitting and throwing, defense, perhaps more so than any other aspect of the game, may be a reflection of focus, preparation, and most importantly (for purposes of this argument), effort … These traits are inexorably linked to good coaching. Bear in mind it was defense (among other things) that let the Mets down in the late innings of the series vs. the Marlins. Defense may in fact be the greatest litmus for a manager’s overall effectiveness, but in the end how do you measure a leader’s ability to get his players to “run through walls” for him?

There are countless anecdotal narratives that run contrary to the claim that managers don’t matter — there have been numerous cases where a change has resulted in a dramatic turn-around. Buck Schowalter of the Orioles as recently as 2011 changed his team’s fortunes almost upon his arrival. Could it be that given a manager’s already marginal impact on the field of play (as shown in multiple studies) it takes a really tremendous manager to actually effect a turn-around? Well, if this is true, and it may be, it would undermine the broader argument that manager’s don’t make much of a difference no matter how good (or bad) they may be because it would imply that while most managers are mediocre (which is why broad based studies show a negligible effect) the exceptional ones do make a difference.

In the end we are left with the possibility that a manager’s effect may not be measurable by any conventional analysis. How do you measure inspiration? How do you quantify cohesion? How do you control for that little bit of effort that could be the difference between a run saved and another loss?

As much as Bill James and Nate Silver and others have tried to quantify managerial performance, it is an elusive and ethereal component of the game that is far too complex to pin down with metrics.

I’ve always gotten the sense that Sandy Alderson ascribes to the premise that managers don’t really make much of a difference. Even great managers after all make about as much as a middle reliever. In a baseball landscape where value in wins has become a catchphrase, the numbers people will tell you that the difference between a truly extraordinary manager like a Herzog or a Cox or a Hodges, and an Art Howe is maybe 3 to 5 wins over the course of a season, if that …

My contention nevertheless resides primarily in all those intangible inspirational and interpersonal aspects of the game that numbers can’t speak to, warm fuzzies such as determination, camaraderie, and above all, hope. There is nothing like giving a band of dejected players immersed in patterns of learned helplessness the gift of believing in themselves and in each other. How do you measure that? And yes, that sounds like something only a select few exceptional leaders would be able to pull off.

It’s always been a glaring paradox to me how an organization that in practice may marginalize the role of the manager, will, with the same breath trumpet the importunate significance of a good development program. Your manager, and your development program, are in practice part of the same operational system. In the end, having seen exceptional coaches take rag tag assemblages of high school kids and transform them into champions, I can’t in good conscience ascribe to the notion that coaches, managers, and leaders, don’t play a role in that effort. They matter, but they matter in ways that relate more to the spirit than they do to numbers on the field.

As Vince Lombardi once said:

“The spirit, the will to win and the will to excel – these are the things that endure and these are the qualities that are so much more important than any of the events that occasion them.”

Trouble is, he’s not hitting or fielding. He’s not even just holding his own; he’s been poor at both, actually terrible. Tejada has committed six errors in 13 games – a pace for just under 80 – and the Mets have already lost a couple of games directly attributed to his defense.

Tejada’s .905 fielding percentage is the worst among shortstops as are his errors.

It matters little if David Wright believes he’s a Gold Glove caliber shortstop. What matters is if Tejada can catch the ball, and if he does, keep it out of the stands. Both Tejada’s glove and arm have been erratic. It was a throwing error Tuesday night that opened the door for a late-inning collapse. His throwing has been especially poor. Is Tejada going Steve Sax or Chuck Knoblauch on us?

Yes, it was cold and miserable, and yes, the pitchers needed to regroup to get the following hitters, but that doesn’t change the fact Tejada’s defense is hurting the Mets and they have little answers.

They would like to bring up Omar Quintanilla, but would need to clear a spot on the 40-man roster.Wilmer Flores is on the 40-man roster, but the Mets don’t think he’s ready, otherwise a Flores-for-Tejada swap would be considered. The Mets certainly don’t want to bring up Flores to have him languish on the bench.

Neither Collins nor Tejada blamed the error totally on the weather, but both said it was a contributing factor because the cold made gripping the ball difficult. News Flash: It’s not going to get better tonight or tomorrow.

Blaming the weather might be easier to accept if Tejada hasn’t been so awful this season. What’s wrong with him? Was last year a fluke? Is there an injury we don’t know about?

Mike Puma of the New York Post says the Mets intend to stay with Ruben Tejada at shortstop, despite his early season problems.

“I’ve seen this guy play too much, and I’ve never seen this — never,” Collins told Puma. “So had I seen this in the past at some time I may be concerned about it, but I’m just saying the conditions have been unfavorable for what’s going on here.”

“He’s putting a lot of pressure on himself,” David Wright said, according to Puma. “You can just tell he’s thinking about a lot of things instead of just playing. The ones that are reactionary plays, he’s fine with. It’s the on

Whatever the reason, his current play is unacceptable and wouldn’t be tolerated if the Mets had a ready backup. If Tejada continues at this rate and the Mets tank in the second half, perhaps they should consider force-feeding the position to Flores or go shortstop shopping in the offseason.

After all, according to the Mets they will be ready to spend and contend next season. They can’t be competitive with a hole on the left side of the infield. Will they need to add a shortstop to their list?

The Starting Pitching

Two words: Matt Harvey. Harvey has been stellar … actually more than stellar, he has been intergalactic. What has impressed me about Harvey is his poise and his fledgling ability to control the came by sheer force of will. No one wants to face Harvey right now, he is overpowering … that’s a scary weapon to have on any team. Need a win? He’s your guy. You can’t put a value metric on that. You aren’t getting swept if Harvey is pitching. If he’s pitching the final game and you’ve won the first two you’re probably looking at a sweep.  Never underestimate the power of a true ace. Matt Harvey really does remind me of Tom Seaver, and there really are some uncanny similarities.

Then there is John Niese, who has been outstanding. I continue to maintain that Niese’s curveball is one of the most underrated pitches in the major leagues. When he’s dropping that thing in for strikes he’s as tough as anyone in baseball. Previous years Niese would unravel after a bloop and a walk. Not so since about half way through 2012, Niese is showing some tenacity under duress, which makes him pretty tough to beat. Right now Harvey and Niese comprise a legitimate one-two punch and there’s a school of thought that subscribes to the belief that two ace level pitchers at the top of a rotation is all you really need to contend. Unfortunately I’m not sure that’s true.

The rotation gets pretty dicey after our top two. Dillon Gee and Jeremy Heffner have been wildly inconsistent with command issues. You get the sense that maybe Gee wasn’t quite ready coming out of spring training, and Heffner just seems to leave too many fat pitches over the middle of the plate. We need Shaun Marcum to hurry up and get better because one more reliable starter and I think the balances are tipped in Mets favor in terms of matching up with other rotations. Lets just say Aaron Laffey seems ill-equipped as his replacement.

The Offense

Two words: Homer happy! The Mets have been hitting home runs like it’s 1998 … Duda hit one the other night at CBP in Philly that I swear was still going up when it hit the upper deck. The man may be lost in the field, but his power is freakish. I feel like he hasn’t even really gotten a hold of one yet, what happens when he does? He could knock a satellite out of orbit, he could hit one to North Korea. How about John Buck? Yeah yeah yeah, I keep hearing how he’s going to come back to earth, whatever. Here’s the thing, with the head start he’s got? Barring injury he’s going to have to come down pretty hard and pretty fast and extremely soon because if he keeps up this rate in another week or so it wont matter, he’ll be able to go back to his lifetime averages and still have the best season of his career (and probably make the all-star game). John Buck is playing with house money at this point.

David Wright I’m not worried about, and Jordany Valdespin needs more playing time. Ike Davis is going to break out sooner or later if he can get his head straightened out. Here’s the thing about Ike. When Ike first came up I was amazed that he was able to make as much contact as he did given his long loopy swing. He was able to because he has great timing, problem is when his timing is off he really struggles, again because of that long loopy swing. The thing that frustrates me about Ike is that he’s playing into the opposition’s prescribed approach. They put the stupid shift on (it’s stupid the shift – no other way to describe it) and they toss him a steady diet of breaking pitches.

Now, correct me, but when Ike came up didn’t he hit to all fields? I remember him talking about how his dad used to make him hit to the opposite field when he was a kid. What happened? I’ll tell you what happened, the stupid shift happened, it got into his head. Ike has fallen into the trap of not adjusting his game to the shift, like it’s taboo or something to change your approach because your approach is what got you to the bigs. Well the problem is, hitting to all fields IS what got Ike to the bigs … since when did he become a strictly pull hitter? I remember Keith Hernandez was incredulous at first that they were even trying the shift on Ike because Ike was always a guy who spread the ball around. Ike needs to get together with Hudgens and practice punching the ball down the third base line, get a few easy doubles, get that average up, get himself going, then he can hit as many homeruns as his heart desires. The rest of the lineup has been playing more or less as expected. We need an outfielder, badly, but in the meantime, Baxter and Valdespin should be splitting lead-off duties.

The Defense

Outside of a few misjudged fly balls by Duda and an inexplicable run of poor play by Tejada I think the defense is actually improved. Murphy has been solid. Ike hasn’t been great at first but I think he’ll settle in. Baxter is a great outfielder and Byrd can hold his own. Center field hasn’t been the disaster we were afraid of, and again, Duda plays the outfield like he’s wearing boots of lead. Wright has been a gold glove third baseman and John Buck has given us a strong veteran presence behind the plate. This team isn’t going to win or lose because of it’s defense, and that is actually a marked improvement.

The Bullpen

Jeckyl and Hyde. The bullpen has had it’s good nights and it’s nightmares. Greg Burke, after one bad outing has been pretty good, that freaky windup of his makes my eyeballs hurt so I can’t imagine it’s easy on hitters. Scott Atchison has been the token “scary old guy” in the pen and he’s been quality through and through, Hawkins has been inconsistent — pretty much the same guy I remember in Minnesota, and Bobby Parnell is throwing a 92 mph change up (need I say more?) I will say more … when he figured out how to dial it back to 91 or 92 to improve his command little did we know he’d still bring the 99 mph heat after he’d get ahead ..  so it amounts to a 92 mph changeup — which is SICK! Anyway, Parnell is fun to watch … and the rest of the bullpen is giving me hope. Josh Edgin has been shaky but reliable and I think he’ll settle in. Overall, with Francisco and Feliciano and Carson and (potentially) Mejia in reserve this bullpen may actually have some depth to bridge the inevitable injuries during the dog days of summer. Fingers crossed on this one.

Overall

I’m hopeful. Right now, as constituted, if they can stay relatively healthy I think this is a .500 team. Maybe a few games better. Things need to break right, the back end of the rotation will need a boost – either by means of Marcum or Wheeler coming to the rescue or Gee and Heffner figuring out their command issues. Ike has to get it going and Wright needs to hit a few out of the park (has he hit any since his injury?). There are concerns, this team’s success is tentative at best. The back end of the rotation let us down in Philly but hopefully Philly won’t always be lucky enough to face Gee and Heffner in the same series in their band box of a home park.

This next series against Minnesota is important. They need to establish resilience, and what better place than a sub freezing tundra on the edge of the great plains against a young and scrappy American League Central team with Ron Gardenhire as their manager. I’ll be there for every game with my lucky hat and my heat-treat pocket warmers.

TARGET FIELD: I think we’re gonna need a bigger shovel.

I want to kick that football, I can see Lucy holding it. She’s promised not to pull it away, I know she’s promised before and still pulled it away, but she seemed really honest this time. I’m Charlie Brown, and I really really want to kick that football. I can visualize it in my mind, the feel of the ball on my toe, watching it glide through the uprights. I know it can happen.

As a Met fan the past few years have ended up with me lying on my rear end and Lucy holding the football while all the other boys and girls laugh at me. Every year I tell myself, no not this time, I won’t fall for it, and every year the lure of the football just sitting there is just too great.

The Mets are coming off two opening series victories against the Padres and the Marlins and a win last night in Philly. I’m thrilled, that football is looking awfully tempting. I may even purchase more than one set of tickets to Citi Field for my trip to NY this summer. Maybe I’ll even buy one of those snazzy new blue jerseys. Is it real? Is Lucy being genuine this time? She sure looks like she is.

The Marlins are a bad team but they’re not as bad as I thought. They are more flawed and young than they are bad. They have lots of talent but it’s a smorgasbord of ill fit and youth, and, well, I guess that does translate to being bad. But this kid Fernandez looks like the real deal, and Ruggiano may be more than a late blooming flash in the pan. Stanton is Stanton. If their high upside starters (currently on the DL) come back and are effective they could be even more annoying than the Marlin announcers.

The Padres on the other hand are not a bad team. They’ve had a rash of injuries and they’re missing their prized catcher (whose name sounds like a monster enemy of the Geats), but they’ll rebound.

The Phillies were supposed to be revitalized. They look old and Halladay does not look like Halladay.

There have been some exhilarating moments so far. The cold night of Harvey’s first start … honestly I haven’t felt that way watching a Met starting pitcher in a very long time. Gooden? Seaver? Harvey was that good. You watch games and you usually feel a sense of apprehension, some tension after a walk and a bloop … things tend to unravel. But there was none of that with Harvey the other night against the Padres, they couldn’t touch him, and the Phillies didn’t do much better. His confidence is palpable, his execution impeccable. Matt Harvey reminds me of Tom Seaver … there I said it.

When I talk to Yankee fans, Harvey is my friend Harvey, the Bensonhurst Bomber, he is even bigger than I am, he terrifies them. He won’t like it when I tell him you said Hiroki Koruda would twist him into a pretzel.

There have been other positive developments. Neise has been ace like, Cowgill has given us shades of Lenny Dykstra, Buck and Byrd have been clutch professionals. Parnell is throwing a 92 mph change-up and Murphy’s bat is on fire. Still I have reservations. Lucy has pulled that damned football away every time. Duda has looked overwhelmed in the field and it’s not just that he’s slow, he misjudges balls and takes poor routs. Maybe he’ll improve, maybe he’ll hit enough so we can trade him. Maybe he can hit a ton so we can tolerate his defense, we’ll know soon enough.

The bullpen has gone all Jeckyl and Hyde on us in the early going. Burke, Rice and Hawkins have been up and down in their first couple of appearances. Maybe we can chalk it up to the jitters, maybe they’ll settle down. Atchison has been a “scary old man” as my son described him but he’s performed as promised. That crazy sliderish breaking ball that Burke throws on the outside corner against righthanders was filthy on Sunday. It sure would be great if we had more than Familia in reserve though, Feliciano, Carson, and Mejia might make for nice additions later in the season if there’s a need. Maybe we can groom one or two more effective relievers in the meantime, maybe the BP will actually hold water this season and maybe that will make all the difference in the world given that our starting pitching has been other-worldly.  Between Duda, Valdespin, and the farm maybe Sandy will even pull the trigger on a trade to shore things up in the event we start to struggle.

Last night’s win in Philly was great but it won’t get any easier with Lee going tonight. This three game set against a reloaded Philly lineup with Subway Sandwhich Howard and Chased Mutley back in the mix is big. We played these guys tough last year, hopefully it will carry over. They don’t scare me like they used to. I like this Met team, there’s a different feel to them, they don’t seem easily intimidated, and they aren’t nearly as “nice” as previous incarnations. John Buck in particular seems to have given this squad something of a backbone behind the plate, my eyebrows elevated noticeably the other evening when Buck had a discussion with Valdespin after Jordanny got caught taking too big a lead off first. He’s no Thole that’s for sure.

I think I’m going to go for it, I’m going to kick that football dammit … here I go …

Las Vegas 4, Fresno 3

Darin Gorski had a decent outing and the late hitting for the 51s sealed the win, 4-3.

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Darin Gorski had a solid outing, going five innings allowing three runs (two earned) on five hits, walking four and striking out three. Gorski did not exhibit solid command, but managed to miss the bats enough to walk away with a respectable start. Gorski will always be a contact pitcher, and the development of his breaking ball will determine his final resting place. Greg Peavey went two innings, allowing two hits and striking out one. Justin Hampson got the win, giving up one hit in his inning of work. Jeurys Familia came out for his inning to grab the save, giving up two hits but striking out one batter. Pitching has been a huge part of the 51s success and will continue to be.

On the offensive side, Vegas continued its early scoring mentality netting a run on a Wilmer Flores RBI groundout and an Andrew Brown RBI triple. Josh Satin would push an RBI single in the sixth inning to tie the game. A Jamie Hoffman RBI single in the top of the ninth inning would seal the win for the 51s. Despite many offensive explosion type games, the 51s have shown some clutch hitting as well as some great situational hitting.

Zack Wheeler toes the rubber for the 51s tomorrow evening at 10:05 ET as Las Vegas (4-1) continues their series with the Fresno Grizzlies.

Key Stats

• Juan Lagares - 2 for 5, R
• Travis d’Arnaud – 1 for 3, R, BB
• Wilmer Flores – 0 for 3, R, RBI, BB, K
• Darin Gorski - 5 IP, 5H, 3 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 3 K
• Jeurys Familia - 1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, SV

Binghamton Mets 7, Erie SeaWolves 2

Erik Goeddel had a great outing and the offense made sure there was no doubt in the 7-2 victory

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Erik Goeddel put together a strong outing, going six innings giving up two runs on eight hits, walking no one and striking out five. Goeddel relied on generating ground balls and leaning on his defense, which is always a positive plan when you have a great defense behind you. Jack Leathersich came out for two innings of work, and allowed one hit while striking out two batters. Leathersich may be the fastest mover in the Mets system based on his ability to be a crossover reliever and dominate lefties. Jeffrey Walters came out for the ninth inning and allowed two hits and walked one batter pitching the ninth. The premier pitching surplus is present in Binghamton and they are utilizing it well.

The B.Mets offense didn’t take the day off either, with five earned runs crossing the plate and a few runs scoring due to some shoddy defense from the SeaWolves. Cesar Puello hit an RBI double in the fifth and was thrown out in a run down play being aggressive. Alonzo Harris hit a solo home run in the sixth inning. Wilfredo Tovar had an RBI fielders choice in the seventh, scoring Cesar Puello. Darrell Ceciliani had a two-RBI double in the seventh, and Cory Vaughn struck out swinging but a wild pitch allowed Darrell Ceciliani to score from third. Rhyne Hughes netted an RBI on a force attempt in the ninth inning, scoring Alonzo Harris.

Rafael Montero looks to build on his strong opening day start against Erie tomorrow evening at 6:05 ET.

Key Stats

• Alonzo Harris - 3 for 5, HR, 2 R, RBI
• Cory Vaughn – 0 for 5, 3 K
• Cesar Puello – 1 for 3, R, RBI, BB, K
• Erik Goeddel - 6 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 5 K
• Jack Leathersich - 2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER. 0 BB, 1 K

Guess who’s jazzed about the Mets so far? This guy is.

The Mets won the first two series of the season 2-1 against the Padres and the Marlins—including a furious 9th-inning rally yesterday. Maybe not the most stellar competition, but the team has shown the range of its capabilities.

In the first couple games, the Mets’ offense exerted its dominance as well as its starting pitching. In the latest win, the bullpen was solid and the team rallied back from two down in the 9th to win the game 4-3.

Here are some specifics I’ve taken away this week:

• Before the season, I mentioned that John Buck was an interim catcher at best. He was a stopgap until Travis d’Arnaud was ready to be called up. Man, is Buck shoving my foot into my mouth now. Buck took yesterday’s game off and is still leading the NL in RBIs in the early going with nine. More importantly, he looks like a different player. His approach at the plate has improved and his bat speed has increased. He knows how to call a game, something the Mets lacked at the catching position last year. He seems to have embraced his role as the experienced journeyman. D’Arnaud will get called up at some point. Him and Buck look like a good one-two punch.
• Matt Harvey deals. Period. What more can you ask for in a season debut than seven innings of one-hit ball and 10 strikeouts? Even though it’s early in his career, this could be the season where people outside the Mets bubble ask, “Have you seen that guy Harvey who pitches for the Mets?” Harvey is turning into one of those dependable-every-fifth-day arms. Whenever he’s on the mound, you anticipate a win.
• The bullpen looked sharp yesterday, but Bobby Parnell, Scott Atchison and Brandon Lyon have looked the best. It’ll be interesting to see what the Mets do with Frank Francisco when he comes off the DL. Parnell looks like he has the 9th sewn up. I usually judge closers by how grizzly their beards are. Parnell is turning into a legitimate closer in that respect. His pitch location has also improved since last season so far. Atchison and Lyon look like they’ll be the setup men—Lyon in the 7th, Atchison in the 8th and Parnell in the 9th.
• Lucas Duda looks lost in left field. He’s taking bad routes to balls. Even when he takes a good route, he’s just too slow to get there. If he doesn’t make up for it at the plate, I fear he’ll lose his job.
• I couldn’t write something without mentioning Ego Grande himself, Jordany Valdespin. ‘Spin had a solid game in Friday’s loss. He got on base four times with two hits, a walk and a hit-by-pitch. He played sound defense in center field too. Keith Hernandez even complemented him on his “fundies” after he helped gun down Placido Polanco at home plate. With a few more quality offensive and defensive games, he could muscle someone out of a starting job. I’d like to see an outfield where Valdespin and Collin Cowgill are starting every day.

What are your thoughts on the Mets start?

At this point, I think everyone knows that I am a Matt den Dekker fan. I’ve argued in his favor since early spring training, when he leaped through the St. Lucie night and pulled a would-be home run from beyond the left-centerfield wall. Many Mets fans never knew who den Dekker was until that moment. That catch brought him into the limelight.

But maybe it was just one catch, people thought. If you’ve read the scouting reports on den Dekker, you would see that most will agree that he has gold glove potential. If den Dekker were to win a gold glove in a Mets uniform someday, he would only be the third outfielder in the team’s history to ever do so. The other two gold glove winner recipients in the outfield were Tommie Agee (1970), and Carlos Beltran (2006-08).

Den Dekker continued to make highlight reel catches through the spring right up until he fractured his wrist on what would have been another catch featured on ESPN’s Top Ten. The fan base has been torn on den Dekker and can basically separated into two categories—one group of fans said his offense was not good enough to be considered for the major league roster, and the other group said his defense more than makes up for his offensive woes, and he will figure it out eventually if you keep giving him at-bats.

I was really hoping that den Dekker would make the opening day roster. I felt that he could help the team win ball games with stellar defense, speed on the base paths, and pop the occasional home run. I felt the fans would rally around a player of his type—young, exciting, and balls to the wall. I recommended hitting him down in the eight hole until he figures it out, which I was convinced he would. There hasn’t been a player that I checked the box scores every time he played to see how he did in awhile. It was a feel-good story, and I was rooting for den Dekker.

I know people are down on den Dekker’s offense, but Toby Hyde’s recent evaluation of den Dekker seems a bit harsh. Here is what he had to say about den Dekker in case you missed it:

He was not a realistic candidate to make the Opening Day roster. Again, he hit .220/.256/.373 in 77 games in AAA last year with 90 strikeouts – a 28% strikeout rate. In 45 PA this spring, he was no better: .205/.222/.364 with one walk and 16 strikeouts – a 36% strikeout rate. I have lowered my offensive expectations for den Dekker from poor in the big leagues, to poor in AAA.

Everyone looks at the strikeouts as a major concern. Don’t get me wrong, I understand that you don’t want a player striking out a lot. An out is an out, but putting the ball in play puts the pressure on the defense to make the play and potentially make a mistake. If you strike out a ton, you are not doing that. But for a young player I would rather see him striking out and taking pitchers deep into the count versus hitting weak grounders after swinging at the first or second pitch. And I would be more likely to accept a player with a high strikeout rate if he provides gold glove defense in a premiere position, has proven to be a decent situational hitter and maybe knock the ball out of the park every now and then. Den Dekker has nine hits this spring and seven RBI. That means the hits were productive. Just bat him towards the back of the lineup until he adjusts.

I pretty much accepted the fact that he would not be on the Opening Day roster, after I read time after time about how his offense and not being on the 40-man roster hurt his chances. Then he fractured his wrist and the reality set in that he definitely won’t be on the roster.

I say I accepted it, instead of say I supported that would-be decision, because I never truly believed that den Dekker should be sent down. Now in full acceptance, I am going through Adam Rubin’s latest roster projection and see that Kirk Nieuwenhuis is not only on his projected opening day roster, but the starting centerfielder and leadoff hitter? Did I miss something? He is 2-26 so far this spring. Two hits all spring and may be our starting centerfielder, but there was no chance den Dekker was making this team? I’m not buying it.

Then I scroll down Rubin’s page a little more and read that “concerned about their defensive capability in center field, the Mets are mulling carrying Kirk Nieuwenhuis on the Opening Day roster over a bona fide backup shortstop (Omar Quintanilla).” Well slap me sideways. Defense does matter after all.

After putting all those pieces together, I don’t think I am reading into this too much by saying that I believe that den Dekker did have a very good shot at making the opening day roster. Den Dekker had outplayed Nieuwenhuis in every way, shape and form this spring. Den Dekker’s bat still needs to develop, but there are three positions on that baseball field where a coach will take defense into account when making decisions—shortstop, catcher, and of course, center field. And you won’t find too many centerfielders with better defense than Matt den Dekker. Let’s hope Matt has a speedy recovery from his wrist injury, so we can see this rare talent roaming the green pastures at Citi Field soon.

Clayton – Jordany Valdespin, I see Cowgill getting a hot start then hitting a wall. Valdespin however I could see being the best run producer in the outfield in 2013.

Adam – Collin Cowgill because he’s a better defender and has better plate discipline/selection at the plate. Valdespin will hit for more power and be a question mark on defense, while Cowgill will produce better on-base numbers to go along with decent defense.

XtreemIcon – Jordany has the higher ceiling and more talent. Given equal playing time, he should outperform Cowgill. But the key phrase is “equal playing time.” We’ve seen how Valdy has not endeared himself to management, for a variety of reasons. However, production makes everything better.

Joe S. - JV1 as long as he protects himself from his own over-inflated ego and Justin Verlander fastballs.

Satish – Valdespin, but I have to admit, I am really starting to like what I see out of Cowgill. Something about Valdespin’s approach at the plate, in a small sample size of course, seems a little more mature so far and I would like to hope he worked out some of the kinks in his free-swinging ways. My only experience watching Cowgill has been his time here in Spring Training, and while I do like it, I am hesitant to completely jump on the bandwagon yet. I always thought Valdespin could work out to be a poor man’s Brandon Phillips – lite.

Craig L. – I think ‘Spin is a flash in the pan having a great spring. Cowgill will be more consistent have his coming out party in 2013.

Jessica – I think Cowgill will because he’ll get more of a chance than Valdespin. Cowgill has pretty much locked his spot on the Opening Day roster and Terry Collins will keep him around, not only because he’s an outfielder, but he’s an outfielder that hits the ball.

Dan V. – Jordany Valdespin hands down. Attitude aside, Valdespin is probably the most talented overall player on the Mets roster right now. If he keeps his mind right, he will steal a starting job, possibly in center, and lead the team in stolen bases and triples.

Paul Z. - If Valdespin, has his head on straight, and it seems he does, he has all the potential.

Daniel N. – ‘Spin, ‘Spin, ‘Spin! That’s no slight to Cowgill whose been having a great spring, but I think Valdespin can be used in more situations, which will give him better numbers. ‘Spin has quickness and power. He can hit almost anywhere in the lineup and can platoon in more positions.

Gregg – Tough choice between Valdespin & Cowgill, but Cowgill could become an icon here, if he plays well. After all who couldn’t use some more Cowgill?

Elliot – Jordany Valdespin. He worked a lot on plate patience in the off-season and it will pay off big time.

If you are like me, you look forward to a time when the major rebuilding is done and the Mets can (hopefully) embark on an extended period of high level competitiveness and play meaningful games (to borrow a phrase) each fall. Assuming that time is near (2014? 2015?), what will the team’s roster look like? I offer a speculative peek from one fan’s perspective that will focus on internal options:

FIRST BASE: This should be easy. Assuming no blockbuster deal or career derailment, Ike Davis looks to be a lock to hold this position for years to come. In a year Ike will be entering his prime seasons (ages 27-32) and should provide steady defense and left-handed thump on a regular basis. Expect a move by management to sign him to a long-term deal fairly soon.

SECOND BASE: This is not an easy call. We have a convergence of players that can fit here including Daniel Murphy, Jordany Valdespin, Wilmer Flores, and Reese Havens. Most of this crew are somewhat challenged defensively, and Havens’ ability to stay healthy is a major concern. Murph has the hustle we all love and flashes the potential of a high-average hitter. Consistency is the key here. Valdespin (if he doesn’t ultimately wind up in the outfield) has the most speed of the group to go with surprising pop. The leather may remain an issue as well as what can charitably be described as a somewhat mercurial personality. Flores is a bat in search of a position. Third would likely have been his best bet, but we know what the deal is with that. I like his potential but my instincts tell me “trade bait.” Havens inability to stay on the field makes him an enigma, and at age 26 he’s getting a bit long in the tooth for prospect status. Still, he could certainly surprise. The verdict: Murphy, whose drive will improve his defense to “acceptable” and whose bat should produce enough line drives to offset his relatively low walk totals.

SHORTSTOP: Well, if the organization keeps drafting guys at this position, I guess they’ll find somebody they like. Really, the guy we ought to have is up in Toronto now but that’s a story for another day. Ruben Tejada has been steady, if not spectacular, and at 23 is young enough to take a few steps forward in his game. Speed is not part of the package, but he has a good eye at the plate and could develop a bit more power in time. Still, he’s likely to remain more of a “pesky” hitter than anything else. If he can bring his OBP up another 10% or so, he’d be more of an offensive component. The glove is fine. So, should we look for Gavin Cecchini, T.J. Rivera, German Rosario, Phillip Evans, or Wilfredo Tovar to supplant Tejada in the next two years? Doubtful, but ya never know. From what I read, Cecchini, Rosario, and Evans have potential, but they are years away (read 3-4), Tovar projects as a utility guy and Rivera, despite an eye-catching batting line at two levels of A ball last year, is a bit older for his level of competition and generally not rated as a top prospect by those rating the organization’s farm system. The verdict: Tejada, who will hopefully raise his offensive game a notch or two.

THIRD BASE: David Wright. ‘Nuff said.

CATCHER: If I put anyone here but Travis D’Arnaud, I’d be called anything you could imagine including late for dinner. Still, Kevin Plawecki has some intriguing skills (good eye, low strikeout rate, some evidence of mid-line power), so perhaps he’ll be in the picture as a backup. Francisco Pena has good bloodlines but hasn’t hit. So Travis it is.

OUTFIELD: I was reading today that the Mets haven’t sent a left fielder to the All-Star Game since Cleon Jones went 43 years ago. I also remember reading about the Red Sox having only three left fielders over a 50 year time frame (Ted Williams, Carl Yastrzemski, Jim Rice). All of which makes me wonder when we will find the slugging stalwart we’ve been waiting for. I find Lucas Duda to be a likable type, and would love to see him blossom into…I don’t know, the next Greg Luzinski?

Barring a trade or (gasp) a Free Agent Signing, the outfield remains either a semi-barren rock garden or a fertile field, waiting for planting depending on your viewpoint. There isn’t a whole lot to work with here as far as players close to the majors, made worse with the injury to Matt den Dekker. The consensus is that his glove is great but his bat requires a season of adjustment per level to catch up to the advanced pitchers he has faced. Like Havens, age is an issue as he’ll be 26 in August. Essentially, he projects as Kirk Nieuwenhuis with more spectacular fielding chops and I don’t know if either of them will hit enough to break out of role player/4th outfielder status.

As for the best of the rest, Brandon Nimmo may be the real deal but is unlikely to figure in the picture before 2016 at the earliest, Juan Lagares and Cesar Puello (he of the looming PED suspension) show tools but doesn’t appear to be close to major league ready, and the intriguing names from the low minors such as Alonzo Harris, Travis Taijeron, Cory Vaughn, and the near-legendary Vicente Lupo are simply not in the picture at this time.

So…we gotta hope that Duda develops and that we catch lightning in a bottle with someone in the current group.The wild card is Valdespin who can force his way in through sheer production. I’m looking for the Wilpons to step up and maybe import Jacoby Ellsbury, Adam Jones, or Shin-Soo Choo to hold down a position in 2014. And maybe management parlays some spare parts with value (e.g. Flores, Murph, etc.) into a legitimate outfield bat.

ROTATION: At last, something to regard as a strength. There are arms up and down the system and everyone already has visions of a potential starting five that will include Zack Wheeler, Matt Harvey, Jonathon Niese, Noah Syndergaard and Dillon Gee, with a plethora of promising choices to fill in if needed. Me too.

In the next few years, I expect that Jenrry Mejia, Luis Mateo, Rafael Montero, Michael Fulmer, Domingo Tapia, Hansel Robles, Jacob deGrom, Cory Mazzoni, et al. will feed the 25 man roster either as fresh arms or as trade fodder to maybe help shore up that pesky outfield. I have my doubts about Mejia from a durability standpoint, but the little I’ve seen of Mazzoni and Montero this spring looks quite promising. I think we can actually count on primarily in-house options here.

BULLPEN: Will Bobby Parnell emerge as the closer we’ve been waiting for? If he does it will represent a change in trend for a team that has imported players for this position consistently for decades. I think he can do the job now that he’s demonstrated an approach that relies more heavily on changing speeds and locations and less on sheer velocity. If Jeurys Familia can harness his control (where have I heard that before) then another home-grown option may loom. From the port side, Robert Carson and Josh Edgin look to have potential, and farther down the line Jack Leathersich seems to be one to watch along with Adam Kolarek. The bullpen is one area that the team seems to re-make almost entirely each off-season without a ton of success, so maybe the current crop of up-and-comers can lend some stability in the near future.

So there you have it. Do the Mets project as a possible dynasty team in the next few years? I think it is possible, but whether it will be a team that resembles the ’69-’73 Seaver/Koosman/McGraw and “enough” offense Mets, the mid-80’s Doc/Darling/Keith/Straw powerhouse, the late ‘90’s Bobby V/Piazza/Leiter/Ventura outfit, or the Pedro/Beltran/Delgado/Reyes/Wright group of a few years back is dependent on a host of factors.

When I look at this organization as currently comprised, I remind myself that the SF Giants have won consistently with gaping holes in their offense and a dominant rotation. I could see a similar evolution here, but I sure wouldn’t mind a bit more offense. Here’s hoping.

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This Fan Shot was contributed by MMO reader, Gerry Silverman.

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Most importantly, Murphy said that both his knees are feeling good in anticipation for spring training.

“I’m done with my rehab, and now we’re really into the strengthening phase,” he said. “I always have that one cut that I need to make to trust it again, and I had that a couple of weeks ago.”

Santa Murphy spread some holiday joy.

Heading into spring training, it seems that it will be Murphy manning second base for the Mets. Ruben Tejada will shift to shortstop due to the departure of Jose Reyes, so Murph becomes the man at second.

Though he’s concentrating on getting as much work in at second base as possible, that doesn’t mean that he’s not going to work at other positions. Also, being the frontrunner to win the second base job doesn’t mean that he’s not going to work.

“I still got a lot of work to do at second base, and there’s a lot of room for improvement,” Murphy said. “My understanding is that I’m going into spring training as a second baseman with a good chance to win the job.”

He said he definitely needs to work more on the double play, but he feels much more comfortable now after working at it the past year than he did last year at this time.

Regarding the new dimensions at Citi Field, Murphy said he didn’t think it would turn him into a better power hitter.

“I’m going to try to hit the ball as hard as I can as many times as I can,” he said. “If it happens to run out of real estate, that’s kind of a bonus for me.”

Murphy also addressed his injury history in that it was mostly bad luck. While he takes the blame in that he must put himself in a better position, he admitted the first injury was from a dirty slide. As the offseason progresses, he will focus on the double play pivot extensively.

The team has discussed briefly the possibility of having Murphy lead off, now that Reyes and Angel Pagan are gone. Murphy said that he would only lead off once per game and would let the circumstances of the game dictate his approach.

Speaking of Reyes, Murphy said it will be strange to play against Jose after being his teammate, but the game itself comes before personal relationships with opponents.

“When we play him…he’s on the other side now,” Murphy said. “He’s a Marlin now. As far as I’m concerned once the bell rings, you’re on the other side.

He did say that he’d have Reyes and his $106 million pick up the tab if they go out to dinner in Miami.

Rather than worry about his individual stats, Murphy has one goal: 95-100 wins. Though that may be a tall order this season, he’s excited with the potential of this team.

“I want to win a pennant, and there’s no better place to win it than New York City so it’s about time to get to it, I think,” said Murphy.

Believe or not, Murphy is the fourth longest-tenured Met behind Johan Santana, David Wright and Mike Pelfrey. However, he said he still feels like one of the younger guys and is looking forward to playing with a young new core.

Murphy was recently mentioned in trade rumors with the Dodgers showing interest. He took this as a compliment in that other teams are interested in his talents.

But he is committed to the Mets and thinks that if the team stays healthy, they can put the negative stigma of the past few seasons behind them.

As spring training approaches, Murphy hopes to transform himself into what he considers an above average first baseman to a competent second baseman.

Let me sum up this past weekend for those of you who couldn’t bare to watch for yourselves…our offense was mediocre. Our pitching was lacking.  And our defense was, if nothing else, questionable.  Even with an additional hitter in the line-up because of the DH, the Mets still couldn’t pull it off.

Was it the curse of the Yankees?  Nope.  The Mets are only three and twelve in the month of June.  They were slumping well before setting foot into the House that Ruth built.  But despite this current losing streak, the Mets are STILL on top in the NL East.  They are nine games under .500 so far for June and still have only lost three games in the standings to the second place Braves.  What other team could get away with that?

Only a team with true talent and heart could go on this long, consistently playing poorly and losing, and still be adored by their fans and their city.  Overshadowed by their cross-town rivals, who just happen to be playing well right now, have the Mets  reverted back to being the  underdogs?  Once again, nope.  Player for player, the Mets are just as capable, with the talent, know-how, and hunger to do it.  And they will.

Remember, the only reason why it hurts so much is because we care.  When they hurt, we hurt. Our hearts are with this team till the end, whether that is September or October.  Mets fans stay true to the orange and blue.  And our team won’t let us down  They can’t lose forever.  Just look at the Yankees – they were 14 games out and playing some of the worst baseball I have ever seen.  Even with guys like Jeter, A-Rod, Damon and Posada, they still couldn’t find a way to win.  Now they have won 11 of their last 12, losing only to the Mets Friday night.  What makes anyone think the Mets can’t turn it around too?

Kind of makes “Ya Gotta Believe” seem more realistic, huh?

This MMO Fan Shot was written by Denise Winter aka: MetsWrighter.