Series Preview: Mets Continue West Coast Trip in San Francisco

After a hard-fought series victory against the star-studded Los Angeles Dodgers, the New York Mets (12-9) are heading to Oracle Park for a three-game series against the San Francisco Giants (10-13).

Over the weekend, the Mets surprised many by winning two out of their three games against the Dodgers. Aside from the blowout loss on Sunday, the Mets saw excellent pitching performances from their starters and relievers. In addition, several members of the offense contributed when needed, catapulting the team to a much-needed series win.

This big weekend did not come without bad news. Catcher Francisco Alvarez is expected to miss six to eight weeks with a thumb injury he suffered in Friday’s game. As a result, the Mets recalled catcher Tomás Nido from Triple-A Syracuse, and manager Carlos Mendoza stated that both Nido and Omar Narváez will be splitting the catching duties in Alvarez’s absence.

As for the Giants, their weekend was not as smooth sailing. They split a four-game set against the Diamondbacks, including an embarrassing 17-to-1 loss on Friday. As of Monday, they are fourth in the National League West Division, with two and a half games separating them and the first-place Dodgers.

This series will be a major test for the Mets as they look to continue their West Coast success against a formidable opponent.

That said, let’s preview the pitching matchups!

Monday, April 22, 2024: LHP Jose Quintana (1-1, 3.05 ERA) vs. RHP Keaton Winn (1-3, 4.09 ERA)

Jose Quintana will take the mound on Monday. Quintana has been consistent to begin the season, averaging about five innings in each start with no more than three earned runs allowed. While the Mets would like to get more length out of Quintana, he has been able to get through outings where he has not had his best stuff. Quintana’s ranked in the ninth and sixth percentiles in whiff rate and chase rate, showing that he is not exactly fooling anybody at the plate. Quintana looks to turn things around on Monday as he enters play with a career 4.30 ERA against the Giants.

Keaton Winn will pitch for the Giants on Monday. He tossed six innings of one-run ball with four strikeouts in his last outing. Strikeouts are not on Winn’s calling card, as he has just 17 in 22 innings this year. However, Winn is adept at forcing the ground ball, as he is placed in the 90th percentile for ground ball rate this season. Unlike many pitchers across the league, Winn relies on a split-finger for most of his pitches. Despite the high usage of 42.8 percent, Winn’s split-finger has been highly effective, with batters only hitting .182 against it.

Tuesday, April 23, 2024: RHP Luis Severino (2-1, 2.14 ERA) vs. RHP Logan Webb (2-1, 2.93 ERA)

Luis Severino will pitch on Tuesday for the Mets. Severino was excellent in his last outing, tossing six shutout innings with four strikeouts against the Pirates. Severino has been adept at keeping the ball on the ground, ranking in the 92nd percentile for ground ball rate this season. One possible explanation for this is his increased sinker usage, which is at 12.3 percent this season compared to just 2.8 percent last year. When hitters have made contact with his sinker this year, they are batting just .200 with an average launch angle of -1 degrees. While he is only averaging one strikeout per inning pitched this year, Severino is finding other ways to succeed.

Logan Webb will take the ball for the Giants on Tuesday. After a poor first outing of the year, Webb has pitched seven innings in each of his last three starts. Most recently, he tossed seven shutout innings with five strikeouts against the Diamondbacks. Like Severino, Webb has a knack for keeping the ball on the ground; he is in the 89th percentile in ground ball rate. Also, he has been able to limit the walks this year, ranking in the 84th percentile in walk rate. Webb mainly uses a changeup, sinker, and sweeper, with the occasional four-seam fastball thrown in. This pitch mix has been conducive to Webb’s ability to limit hard contact this season. Entering Tuesday’s action, Webb has a career 3.52 ERA against the Mets.

Wednesday, April 24, 2024: LHP Sean Manaea (1-1, 4.12 ERA) vs. LHP Blake Snell (0-3, 11.57 ERA)

Sean Manaea will pitch against his former team on Wednesday. Manaea bounced back from a poor start against the Royals with five innings and two runs allowed against the Dodgers on Friday. Manaea’s sweeper has been exceptional to start the year, with a 51.6 percent whiff rate while used 60 times. While he used his sinker under one percent of the time last season, he is now offering it as his primary pitch this season. The results of this adjustment have paid off for Manaea, as opponents are batting just .125 against it this season. Manaea has a career 3.00 ERA against the Giants in 11 appearances.

Blake Snell will close out the series for the Giants. The marquee free agent signing has struggled mightily to start his career with the Giants, with an 11.57 ERA in three starts. Despite allowing plenty of hits and runs, Snell has been able to generate whiffs, ranking in the 74th percentile in whiff rate this year. Since he signed with the Giants later in the process, it is likely that his struggles can be attributed to a lack of time to prepare for the season. The Mets would be a good team for Snell to bounce back against, as he has a career 2.66 ERA against the club.

Players to Watch

Reed Garrett (NYM)

Viewed as an afterthought before the season, Reed Garrett has been nothing short of exceptional in 2024. He has 21 strikeouts in 10 2/3 innings with no earned runs allowed. While the sample size is limited, Garrett’s success may be sustainable due to the adjustments that he has made. His main adjustment has been using the slider as his primary pitch, which has generated a whiff rate of 44 percent while being used 52 times. 

In addition, he has decreased his four-seam fastball usage by nearly 20 percent, causing his more effective pitches to shine brighter. Garrett has been arguably the best relief pitcher across the MLB this season, ranking in the 99th percentile for whiff rate and the 100th percentile for strikeout rate. His production will be crucial for the Mets as they look to return home on Friday with another series victory.

Jung Hoo Lee (SFG)

After signing a six-year, $113 million contract in the offseason, outfielder Jung Hoo Lee has exceeded the lofty expectations this season. Starting with hitting, Lee has been adept at limiting strikeouts, with a 9.5 percent strikeout rate and 10.5 percent whiff rate. He’s hit to nearly every part of the field, including two home runs early in the season. Moving to baserunning, Lee ranks in the 87th percentile in sprint speed and is in the 98th percentile for baserunning run value this year.

This could prove detrimental for a Mets team that has only caught one baserunner stealing this season. Finally, Lee has proven to be a skilled fielder, especially in the arm strength department. His average velocity of 93.3 mph places him in the 95th percentile among fielders this season. Despite going hitless in his most recent game, Lee had two hits in each of his three games before that, including a home run on Saturday.