Mets Merized Online

It’s quite possible that the Wilpons do have a plan.  It’s a long term plan and you might not like it because it doesn’t include trying to win at all costs in 2010.

Maybe the main concern that Mets management has is the health of their current star players.  Carlos Beltran is hurt and Jose Reyes is coming back from a major injury.  Carlos Delgado is not worth re-signing due to his age and chronic injuries.  Johan Santana is returning from elbow surgery.  John Maine is returning from shoulder surgery.  Oliver Perez is returning from knee surgery, plus he is a head case. Nobody including the Wilpons or the players know for sure when they’ll be back and if they will play at full strength.

Additionally, David Wright is coming off his worst year as a major leaguer.  Only time will tell whether he can regain his old form and possibly be the comeback player of the year.  Mike Pelfrey regressed last year too.  At least Wright and Pelfrey have been healthy.

Why spend money on injury plagued free agent pitchers or other mediocre pitchers if the backbones of the team will not perform up to expectations.  Ben Sheets, Chien Ming Wang, Erik Bedard, and John Smoltz, “if healthy”, only raise more questions.  Can Joel Pineiro succeed without Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan at his side.  Are Jason Marquis and Jon Garland enough of an upgrade if our current pitchers aren’t effective and healthy?

No free agent signing will make this ball club true contenders if our injured players do not come back and have successful years.  We need Reyes, Beltran, Santana and Wright to be like their old selves.  Otherwise we’d be mediocre at best regardless of who was signed.

One proof that the Mets are hedging their bets in 2010 is that they have not made any trades that involve their minor leaguers.  Our upcoming stars, Fernando Martinez, Jerry Mejia, Ike Davis, Josh Thole and others have not even been the subject of trade rumors this off season.  That is, unless you count rumors originated on blogs.

The second piece of evidence that this dysfunctional behavior by ownership is part of a grand plan is truly an amazin’ one because it hits directly in the pocketbooks of the Wilpons.  Ownership seems totally unconcerned about decreased ticket sales.  This is an unheard of strategy by the Wilpons.  Every season the Mets make a big splash by December so that when that letter goes out to season’s ticket holders, a positive spin can be put on the upcoming season.

Season’s ticket sales are reportedly way down.  Many fans have vowed not to support the team financially.  But there has been no panic in the front office.  There doesn’t seem to be a heir of desperation.  No attempt to keep up or catch up to the Yankees.  No one could accuse the Mets of risky, fruitless spending.

The Wilpons and Minaya have not been apologizing to fans for this winter’s failures.  Fred, Jeff and Omar have said nary a word.  They even have the courage to sign Fernando Tatis and “show interest” in Josh Fogg when everyone is clamoring for a major signing.  Could the Wilpons be of sound mind to put a long term strategy in place, even at the expense of short term profits? They already take so much heat from fans and the press that this new reason for criticism shouldn’t matter.

Nobody can claim that the Wilpons haven’t spent money on this franchise.  Most would postulate that it has not been spent wisely.  The economy and the Wilpons questionable financial status might indeed be the impetus for this 180 degree reversal of their approach to running the franchise.

I’m not commending or condemning this proposed new strategy.  I’m just offering a possible explanation for concerned and confused Mets fans who only see the answer as blaming our clueless owners and begging them to sell the franchise.

The Mets plan for this 2010 season might not be a bad one.  It is realistic and practical.  It does not involve throwing money and the farm system away.  The grand design is to look towards 2011 and beyond. What’s difficult for Mets fans to accept is that our psyches and hearts are deflated even before the season has begun.  But it also doesn’t create false hopes and expectations for this season.  Too bad the Wilpons couldn’t have been honest and straight forward about their intentions.

In any case, if the Mets stars do have comeback seasons, the Mets are a competitive team.  And if they stay in the race through July, the strategy might change and the Mets might be buyers at the trade deadline.  Let’s hope so.  Otherwise, our spanking new Citifield will turn into a morgue.  Only the most faithful will be there and in mourning.

On the bright side, there will be no waiting at the Shake Shack.

Okay, so the Mets went 1-for-2 on their attempts to get a power hitting outfielder and a top of the rotation starter. Then after whiffing on pitchers Jason Marquis and Joel Pineiro and catcher Bengie Molina (the most welcome strikeouts since Kevin Bass in 1986), they didn’t even offer at pitchers Doug Davis, Ben Sheets and Jon Garland. So Omar and company spent the last week taking their swings at the remaining scraps on the free agent market to fill the back end of their roster.

But in the Mets’ case, perhaps the appropriate metaphor to their off-season is the strategy someone on a tight budget takes at a silent auction. You know you want to buy some stuff, perhaps you even need some of the stuff, but you have to pick your spots when you bid. You see a few expensive trinkets but know you can only outbid everyone for one because you might actually win the high bids. Then you see a few items you like, but not enough to outbid everyone else and blow all your cash when you could save that money for next year’s auction. And then as you’re walking to get a cocktail, you see a few cheap, but nice things that nobody has bid on so you take a flier and win.

Coming up with utility man Frank Catalanotto and righthanded reliever Josh Fogg and re-signing Fernando Tatis didn’t exactly set Mets fans hearts aflutter, although all three are acknowledged to be good character and clubhouse guys, something not exactly in abundance the last few years in the team’s locker room.

If the best thing to come out of the Tatis signing is to hasten the end of the Carlos Delgado era at first base, it was worth it. In addition to getting Delgado’s influence, or lack thereof, out of the clubhouse, the Mets could do worse than Tatis–who for the second straight season had decent power numbers coming off the bench, but was a double play machine in the clutch–as the righthanded platoon at first with lefty Daniel Murphy. The Mets are clearly committed to determining if Murphy can be a run producer at first base before deciding on turning to bigger first base fish (the Padres’ Adrian Gonzalez?) at the trade deadline or next year. It’s the right move. With Bay supplying most of the power the team won’t get from Delgado, Murphy should be under less pressure to be the 30-homer guy he clearly is not. If he hits close to .300 against righties, bangs about 20 dingers and plays solid defense (with Tatis supplementing those numbers against lefties), the Mets will be fine at first base.

But back to the silent auction metaphor: This supposed lack of aggressiveness in signing the bigger name free agents this winter–other than outfielder Jason Bay–may actually be a plan, as hard to believe as that may be. If the Mets can stay in the race through the All-Star break, they may be able to supplement the roster through deadline deals for impending free agents. If they’re toast by the 4th of July, they can look to 2011 and sign from among a better crop of free agents that will hit the market after this season.

But they won’t have a chance of being in contention with the Phillies or even the Braves and Marlins if they don’t add another solid starting pitcher, preferably a number two behind Johan Santana. The problem is the only free-agent of that caliber on the market winter was John Lackey and the Mets deemed him too expensive for their budget and not worth the investment.

What’s left to choose from? Aging future Hall of Famers John Smoltz and Pedro Martinez, former stars rehabbing from injuries like Chien-Ming Wang and Eric Bedard, and trade possibilities Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo from the Cincinnati Reds. While either of the latter two would be solid additions to the back end of a staff, perhaps as high as a number three starter, they may not be that much of an upgrade over what the Mets already have in Mike Pelfrey (if he grows up) and John Maine (if he rebounds from injury).

If Jeff Wilpon allows Omar to shop from somewhere other than the scrap heap, he would be wise to take a flyer on Wang and Bedard, perhaps even both. Surely they can’t be worse than Oliver Perez healthy. Both were number two caliber starters when they were with the Yankees and Orioles, respectively, and both should be ready to take a major league mound again by May or June. Omar should stick with his current policy of preserving what’s left of his minor league crop, stay away from trades (unless it involves unloading Luis Castillo) and go for the freebies.

Of course the whole plan goes to hell in a hand basket if Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran don’t revert to 2008 form, let alone stay healthy. At that point, no amount of short-term bargain shopping will help this franchise and we’ll see Bob Melvin in the manager’s chair by June.

Is there any doubt that Omar Minaya is searching for leadership to help change the chemistry of his ballclub without gutting the “core” of this team?

The Jason Bay signing was not just to fulfill the need for power in the lineup, it was done also with the hope that Bay would help fill a void for leadership that exists.

I’m not trying to disparage any current member of the Mets.  David Wright will eventually be the leader of this team.  Carlos Delgado will not be brought back.  The Mets have begun to develop younger players, and it won’t be too long until Wright finds a more forceful voice and wears the “C” on his uniform for this team.

Bay’s leadership skills are not of the vocal variety. Rather, Bay is the kind of guy that gives his best effort everyday.  Bay is a “watch how I go about my business guy” and learn from me.  He should never be confused with a Keith Hernandez as it pertains to leadership.  Leaders like Keith come along once in a generation for a team. That’s not to say Bay won’t speak or dispense advice to younger players, it’s unfair to say that. It’s just that he’s a quieter guy.

Omar continues to search for leaders for this team. The rumors of his and the Mets interest in John Smoltz and his signing of Frank Catalanotto, (who is well respected as a smart baseball guy and good clubhouse guy) proves that he believes there is a leadership void on this team.

Smoltz would not only be pitching, but showing the other pitchers how to go about their business. He’d be brought in as much for his leadership as his pitching ability, which must be questioned at age 42.

The problem I have with Omar’s search is that guys like Catalanotto and Smoltz (if signed) may only be with the Mets briefly as their baseball skills have deteriorated to the point of ineffectiveness. Then where do you turn for leadership?

Many people say chemistry and leadership is overrated. I disagree. Look at the Mets teams that have won.  In 1969, 1973, 1986, 1988, 1999, 2000, and 2006. Leaders abound on those teams.   Look at our team today and point out which regular is a leader. Wright’s not ready for it yet. (he’s only 27 this year) Beltran’s hurt and isn’t’t vocal enough.  Reyes doesn’t want it.  That leaves Francoeur and Bay. Which one is going to help Wright be the leader of this team? Ray Knight helped lead with Hernandez in the ’86 season. Who on these current Mets can lead along with Wright? I just don’t know. Any ideas fans?

The Washington Nationals lost 103 games last season.  It would have been worse had they not been saved by a season ending seven game winning streak.  Their pitching was in chaos all season long.  Relief pitchers blew 25 saves during the season.  They had only one starter who made more than 19 starts.

They have made several moves this winter, mostly investing in pitching.  It’s a safe prediction that they will improve from last year’s 103 loss season.

Starting Pitching: If you can say one positive thing about the Nats starting pitching last year, it was John Lannan, 25 years old, who in 33 starts pitched over 200 innings. He was 9-13 but with an excellent 3.88 ERA.  He will return as their #1 starting pitcher.  Jason Marquis, their big free agent signing should be their #2.  Otherwise all you can say is that they have several young starters with potential.  Ross Detwiler, Garrett Mock, JD Martin, Craig Stammen, and Shairon Martis were all rookies last year and will compete for the other starting spots.  Top rookie Jordan Zimmermann (no relation to Ryan Zimmerman), will miss the entire 2010 season due to elbow surgery.  Phenom Stephen Stasburg  may enter the fray but might very well start the season in the minors.

Relief Pitching: Free agent signings Matt Capps and Brian  Bruney will compete for the closer roll.    However, neither is a sure bet.  Capps pitched to a 5.80 ERA for the Pirates, and Bruney, formerly a Yankee, was injured for half the season and mostly ineffective upon his return. The Nats are hopeful that rookie Drew Storen can quickly step up and contribute.  He was the 10th overall pick in last year’s draft and is projected to be the closer of the future.

Offense: Although their greatest strength was their offense, it still ranked in the bottom half in most categories.  Adam Dunn, Ryan Zimmerman and Josh Willingham had outstanding seasons and will return for 2010.  Christian Guzman may move to 2B to make room for SS Ian Desmond.  Nyjer Morgan and Elijah Dukes will be counted on as well as catcher Jesus Flores who was injured for most of last season.  The Nats have made no major moves this off season to improve their offense, unless you count signing aging catcher Ivan Rodriguez.

Opinion: Upon analyzing the Nationals, they don’t seem to be that much better than the 103 loss season of last year.  Other than Jason Marquis and the two new suspect relief pitchers, they have not added anything of substance.  Offensively, they will be relying totally on Dunn, Zimmerman and  Willingham to repeat their great seasons of 2009.

The one thing that is unarguable is that the Nationals are a very young team.  Twenty two to twenty seven year olds rule.  If Strasburg develops quickly and one or two of their other young pitchers contributes, all bets are off and the Nationals will be much improved.

The Nationals hit rock bottom last year and are now on the rise.  They may be only a couple of years away from being contenders in the NL East.  At least for 2010 Mets fans need not be concerned about falling behind the Nationals.

Prediction:  Wins – 69  Losses – 93

The Mets have signed veteran utilityman Frank Catalanotto to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training.

The 35-year-old Catalanotto hit .278 with a homer and nine RBIs in 77 games last season for the Milwaukee Brewers. He’s a career .292 hitter over 13 big league seasons that included stops in Detroit, Texas and Toronto.

Catalanotto has played first, second and third base, as well as both corner outfield spots during his career. That versatility could come in handy for a Mets club that was decimated by injuries last season.

Catalanotto, a left-handed hitter, is still very effective against RHP and has a career line of .297/.361/.458 against them.

He could prove to be more useful than Jeremy Reed or Argenis Reyes last season.

Adam Rubin of the Daily News, recently reported that the Mets will not have Bobby Parnell audition for a spot in the starting rotation, but that Fernando Nieve will figure into the battle for the fifth spot in the rotation behind Santana, Maine, Perez and Pelfrey.

Jerry Manuel is very high on Nieve as is GM Omar Minaya, both of them have mentioned him as a pitcher we shouldn’t count out this season.

We have profiled Fernando Nieve extensively here on MMO, and I clearly envision Nieve as a major sleeper for the 2010 season.

Here’s a scouting report on Nieve in 2006 as one of their top pitching prospects:

Fernando Nieve RHP, HOU

Strengths: 89-94 MPH four-seam fastball, 85-87 MPH cut-fastball, and 81-83 MPH slider. Command, arm action, aggressiveness.

Weaknesses: Deception of 81-84 MPH straight-change, setting-up pitches, effort to ¾ delivery

Comments: Strong/stocky hurler lights-up strike zone with above average fastball and nails RH batters with cutter and slider. Improved command within strike zone and proved durable, despite effort to delivery. Gets into mindset where he wants to overpower hitters and will need to change speeds to combat LH batters.

Also check out what we posted on Nieve back on June 14th, 2009.

The Astros brought him up in 2006 – where he made 11 starts for them – pitching pretty well for a rookie – with a 4.20 ERA and striking out hitters at a rate of 6.5 per 9 innings. However in August of 2006 he experienced some elbow issues that eventually shut him down for the season – and lingered into 2007.  Apparently it was misdiagnosed by Astro trainers as elbow tendinitis (sound familiar Met fans?) – and it was revealed later in 2007 that he had a partial tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow – and would require Tommy John surgery.

He attempted to come back early from TJ surgery in 2008 and the Astros obliged moving him to the bullpen in order to preserve his arm.  Unfortunately he was spotty at best – and spent most of 2008 moving between AAA and the MLB club (which caused the Astros to run out of options on him).

The Astros waived Nieve early this year as he wasn’t making the big club – and the Mets swooped in and claimed him.  (good scouting by someone in our organization)  Although they knew Nieve wasn’t going to make the Opening Day roster the Mets optioned him right before Opening Day – thus allowing him to clear waivers and go to AAA Buffalo (another smart move).

He pitched reasonably well in the Mets minors in 2009 – re-establishing his dominance – averaging a strikeout per inning along with reasonable control 3.0 BB/9 – and a 3.75 ERA.

Finally – John Maine’s injury opened up a spot in the Mets rotation and with the organization either having given up on Jon Niese or thinking he needs additional “seasoning” – Nieve got the call.

The rest you know.  A great outing in a pressure situation against one of the better teams in baseball.  And certainly the opportunity to carve out a place in the Mets rotation if he can follow it up.

In eight appearances for the Mets in 2009, the 27 year old Nieve went 3-3 with a superb 2.95 ERA, while striking out 23 in 36 2/3 innings. He was well on his way to establishing himself before sustaining his season ending hamstring injury.

In one dominating performance against the Yankees last season, Carlos Beltran was impressed with his new changeup. It’s worth noting because one thing most scouts agreed on regarding Nieve, was that he had the plus fastball and effective curve, but lacked the changeup to pull it all together. 

“His change-up was extremely effective as well as a pitch that he’s recently added to his arsenal. I like the way he pitches, I like his velocity,” Carlos Beltran said. “He pitched a great game, he challenged players.”

Beltran was not just impressed with his velocity. Nieve consistently threw 93 mph, and peaked at 96 mph, according to Beltran, and had an effective changeup.

“He never had that pitch before in his career, so he looked pretty good out there now,” Beltran said.

Nieve went 45-34 with a 3.63 ERA in an eight year minor league career. He is now fully recovered from TJ surgery and looks like a new and improved version who has transformed himself from a hard thrower to a smart pitcher who can deceive hitters.

While playing in the Venezuelan Winter League, Nieve went 1-2 with a 2.42 ERA in five starts, walking just three batters while striking out 26 in 26 innings. He drew raves from his manager, coaches and teammates.

Although I’m just as disappointed as most Mets fans that we didn’t acquire a starter to bolster the rotation for the 2010 season, Fernando Nieve can certainly turn those frowns upside down if he can deliver some solid performances to start the season and fulfill his expectations. He has electric stuff, and is loaded with so much promise and upside, maybe this is the year he finally delivers his breakthrough performance. LGM

Murph Rules!

Right after the Kevin Burkhardt/Omar Minaya interview on SNY, I caught 1984 edition of Mets Yearbook. If you haven’t checked out these fantastic documentary style treats yet, you don’t know what you’re missing. I strongly urge you to try and catch them whenever they’re on. In this particular edition, longtime Mets broadcaster Bob Murphy was doing an interesting profile on Keith Hernandez, when all of a sudden he said something that completely surprised me,

“Not only does Keith Hernandez lead the Mets in batting going into the All Star break, but he’s the league leader in on-base percentage”.

Wow, who knew? How many of the fans that were originally tuned in over 25 years ago, even knew what Murph meant? It goes without saying that in addition to being the most awesomest Mets broadcaster ever, Bob Murphy was truly a man ahead of his time.

Say Cheese!

Incidentally, what was up with Omar Minaya’s glistening white smile during his interview with KB on Thursday? It kind of creeped me out and after about ten minutes into it, I found that my eyes were completely glued to his shiny white teeth. It brought this classic “Friends” episode to mind.

Healthy Or Not, Here They Come!

Omar Minaya said something about Mets starters John Maine, Mike Pelfrey and Oliver Perez that was either ridiculously over the top or just an indication that his meds were winding down.

He said that in this years free agent market, John Lackey was a ‘difference maker, but as for the rest of the free agent starters,

“I believe that John Maine, Mike Pelfrey and Oliver Perez, when healthy, are just as good, if not better, than some of the other starting pitchers that are or were on the free-agent market.”

So assuming everyone is “healthy”, which is exactly how he put it, Perez, Maine & Pelf are as good or better than Ben Sheets, Rich Harden, Eric Bedard, Randy Wolf and Chien-Ming Wang? Really?

Someone should tell Omar that if the Mets had “healthy” years from the five guys I mentioned the Mets would win 100 games with or without Johan. If Omar continues to make embarrassing comments like that, I’m just gonna have to lobby Jeff Wilpon for the GM job.

There’s a fly in my Veal PECOTA…

Will Leitch of New York Magazine made ten predictions based on the latest PECOTA projections on Friday. Needless to say, I have issues with Mr. Leitch and his off the wall predictions. Damn you PECOTA!

The Jason Bay signing is going to be a disaster for the Mets. His counting stats will be decent — 27 homers, 94 RBIs — but his defensive deficiencies and his low OBP (lower than Gardner’s, if you can believe that) will make him dramatically overpaid in the first year of his contract, before he starts the downward slope.

Jose Reyes will be healthy, but the Mets will still be lousy. Reyes makes a projected 640 plate appearances, hits thirteen homers, and steals 45 bases. The Mets lineup, one through four, is solid, but after Bay, the drop-off is dramatic. The best VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) from spots 5–8 is posted by Luis Castillo. Also, the third-best pitcher will be Kelvin Escobar.

Fuhgeddaboutit!

According to Jon Heyman, the Mets are interested in native New Yorker Frank Catalanotto. The 35 year old Catalanotto, batted .278 with one homerun and nine RBIs in 77 games with the Brewers, while playing left field, right field and second base. With Blanco, Cora, Matthews and Tatis already on board, Catalanotto should fit right in. In fact the Mets may win the prestigious AARP Award given each year to the team with the oldest bench in the majors. Each member receives a years supply of Centrum Silver and $25 dollars worth of valuable coupons they could use on great products like Depends, Ensure, Polident and Metamucil.

The Mets have signed 33 year old relief pitcher Josh Fogg to a minor league deal, according to Troy Renck of  Denver Post.

Fogg had a 3.74 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 45.6 relief innings for the Rockies last season.

He also spent some time as a starter in the minors where he had a 5.80 ERA and 16/17 K/BB ratio in eight starts for AAA-Colorado Springs.

He’ll most likely compete for the fifth starters spot or bullpen job in the spring. That can’t be good.

He has been terrible as a starter and yet he chose the Mets because they told him he could compete for a rotation spot.

“The Mets’ rotation is pretty much up in the air, so it’s a good spot to compete for a job.”

His nickname is the “Dragon Slayer”.

I’m not sure if this ends the Mets pursuit of John Smoltz.

Occasionally, all of us become downtrodden, pessimistic, and critical of the Mets. Even the most faithful and patient Met fans have problems with this. We vacillate between positive and negative storylines and opinions in our comments, our radio calls, our blog writing and reporting.  I’d like to take a positive look at what the Mets have done and give hope to all of us for 2010…

The need for good health takes precedent over all our off season moves. We as fans should not forget that this team was pretty good until the parade of injuries that beset this ballclub last year.  Good health is an imperative this season, and except for Carlos Beltran’s setback, our team seems healthy for the first time in a long time. 

Seeing our Mets on the field whether in photos from the Port St. Lucie mini-camp, or video feeds on SNY, provides fans with the first glimpses of spring.  Personally, I don’t need to see a robin or wait for the groundhog.  I see Johan throw and Ollie looking to be in great shape, and the cold winter seems to melt away bringing spring ever so closer.

Although player procurement continues and additions will in all likelihood also continue, let’s see where we are now.

Going around the diamond, lets take a look at each position.  At the end of each we will say whether the glass is half full or half empty or hope for the best…

Position Players

Daniel Murphy - Murph was essentially a square peg in a round hole last season. He was thrown to the wolves in LF. His defense most assuredly was deficient.  His bat work, supposedly the strength of his game suffered. When he became the first baseman after Delgado’s injury and other player’s ineffectiveness, he settled down. He markedly improved in the second half last year both offensively and defensively, most importantly, he’ll only be 25 on April Fools Day. Glass half full.

Luis Castillo - Luis had an excellent bounce back year for the Mets. Offensively, he is just a singles hitter now, but is the best bunter in the game as well.  Defensively, he needs to improve his footwork around the bag.  Luis shouldn’t be admonished for his lack of range, rather, the coaching staff should be chided for not realizing that Luis has lost a step and using better positioning to enhance the range Luis does have left.  He came into camp last year in fabulous shape. Let’s hope he’s in great shape again. Hope for the best.

Jose Reyes - Jose was injured most of the season. When healthy, Jose is one of he best weapons in the game offensively. Essentially, Jose is the most important Met. As Jose goes, so go the Mets. His ability to turn singles and walks to doubles, and doubles to triples, is almost as important as the power that Beltran, Wright, and Bay provide. He has that smile and that infectious enthusiasm that makes Jose who he is. His glove is an asset. With better concentration, it’s easy to foresee Jose winning a gold glove in the future, maybe this year.  Jose may have a chip on his shoulder to prove his leg injuries are behind him.  That’s a good thing. Motivation is a wonderful tool.  Glass half full.

David Wright - David had an off year in 2009. We all know it. Just having Jay Bay in the lineup for protection will make him better offensively. Defensively, David needs to rededicate himself to improving his footwork and his throwing. The “team leader” mantra, I believe, weighs too heavily on him at times. This soft spoken star is not yet ready to lead regardless of the fans and media prodding. CitiField stadium got into his head as well. He will bounce back after a winter to relax and refocus his hitting approach. He’s only 27. Glass half full.

Jason Bay – Jason had a wonderful season in Boston offensively.  The Mets say his swing will translate to strong power numbers at Citi. His defense was questioned, but this is a guy who had no errors and 15 assists. He may not have the best range, but he works hard and gives his best effort every night. He’s easily the best LF we’ve had since the days of KMac in the ‘80’s. Arguably, the best LF we’ve ever had.  Glass half full.

Carlos Beltran – Carlos was injured much of last season.  But when healthy, was there any doubt he was the Mets best all around player? Offensively, he was hitting for a high average. His glove was as good and as gold as ever.  He returned in late ’09 and seemed okay. Then came knee pain in December during workouts. Then came surgery after subsequent examinations proved the need was real. Carlos knee problems are not going away. He, right now, cannot be counted on for a contribution until probably mid-May or June at the earliest. (Don’t kid yourself, the Mets are worried about Beltran hence the GMJ acquisition) Glass half empty.

Jeff Francoeur – Frenchy was a bright spot after being acquired from Atlanta for Ryan Church. His professionalism and enthusiasm were infectious in the Met clubhouse. He played well both offensively and defensively.  Howard Johnson should receive kudos for helping “Frenchy” with his swing.  A solid all around player who appears to have been invigorated by his liberation from Atlanta where he was born, raised and played.  If this guy reverts to his form of his first 2 years, the Mets and we fans will jump for joy.  Glass half full.

Omir Santos – Omir was a total surprise for the Mets. After showing surprising hitting acumen, he forced the Mets into dealing Ramon Castro and defensively seemed to hold his own.  Rumors persist of the Mets being unhappy with his game calling. The signing of Henry Blanco proves the Mets belief in the need for better defense and game calling. Hope for the best

The Bench - With the bench, usually it’s better to wait to evaluate when the roster is set at the conclusion of Spring Training, but here’s the “for sure” guys at this time…

Angel Pagan - Angel will either be the starter for Beltran till he returns or be packaged for a starter if performance or health in the rotation dictates such a move. The guy was a revelation offensively, and was pretty good defensively too. His base running gaffes are a joke; the coaching staff and Angel must be better prepared and teach him situational baseball better than he’s been taught.  His 22 doubles and 11 triples in a little over half a season were outstanding. He’s a quality player who may be a late bloomer. Glass half full.

Gary Matthews Jr. – Junior is insurance against a prolonged injury to Beltran. Don’t be fooled however, if Pagan is needed in a trade for a starting pitcher during the spring GMJ will be starting in CF till Beltran is ready, or Fernando Martinez will be the starter and Matthews Jr. will stay in the role best suited for him. Let the arguments over his acquisition end. For a 4th or 5th outfielder, he’ll do fine. He’s a better choice than Cory Sullivan or Jeremy Reed.  Glass half full.

Henry Blanco – Henry is still a superior defensive catcher but is still 38. Offensively, Henry is a great defensive catcher, enough said.  Blanco’s expertise may be in helping Josh Thole and Omir Santos learn to call a game better. He’s definitely an improvement over Brian Schneider, especially defensively. Glass half full.

Alex Cora – Alex was brought back as much for his leadership and intangibles as his baseball skills. He is a pretty decent utility man. Last year he was overexposed, of this there can be no doubt. If used judiciously to rest Reyes and Castillo, he will prove to be acceptable. Glass half full.

The Rotation

Johan Santana – Johan is simply one of the top starters in the game. Injuries are the only thing that can stop a future date in Cooperstown. He’s now healthy and the undisputed leader of this pitching staff. Glass half full.

Mike Pelfrey – “Big Pelf” was a bit of mystery in ’09 after a breakout ’08. Pelfrey has excellent stuff but needs to mature mentally.  He really just needs to stop worrying about painting the corners and trust his stuff.  If he gives up a hit or a fielding error occurs behind him, he goes to pieces. This lack of mental maturity is as much to blame as anything. His body language on the mound last year screamed of the player putting too much pressure on himself.  Still, he is only 26, and will improve.  Glass half full.

John Maine – John has a problem. He’s his own biggest critic. He needs to stop analyzing every pitch in every start and just go out and throw. His high pitch count early in games may be attributed more to the movement on his pitches than missing his spots. He’s healthy this year and feeling good. Perhaps he’ll have better mechanics with no more pain; in turn this will improve his pitch location and reduce his pitch count, which will reduce the stress on his arm, which also helps the pen. John is still only 29. Glass half full.

Oliver Perez – “Ollie” is healthy now and seems more mature and focused in his interviews. After a lost season and the heaping helping of criticism he received, maybe he’s finally begun to mature, as his off season workouts may indicate. Ollie has great talent, a rubber arm, and the attention span of a gnat. He needs to find his proper arm angle and replicate his delivery consistently, start after start. If he does so, he’ll be in the mix for “comeback player of the year”. He is still only 28. Glass half full.

Fernando Nieve – Fernando showed great promise in his few starts for the Mets. He was 3-3 2.95 ERA. If he can throw strikes consistently, he has enough ability to stick either as a number 5 or long man in the pen. Nieve throws hard and has a power arm. He is only 27. Hope for the best.

Jon Niese - Jon has ability. Jon Niese is ready. Niese who had mastered a cutter last season was brought up to plug the injuries for the major league staff. He was bitten by the same injury bug as quite a few of his teammates, tearing his hamstring tendon.  Niese appears to have turned a corner in Triple AAA last season. He’s lefty, and he’s only 23. If his injuries are behind him, he’ll contribute in 2010. Maybe not right away, but at some point for sure. Glass half full.

The Bullpen - The bullpen, like the bench, usually changes but a quick evaluation of those that will probably be there is worth a look.

Francisco Rodriguez – “Frankie” is still a great closer. He did struggle a bit the second half of last season, but can that be attributed more to the teams standing or is Frankie losing something? I think Frankie needs the adrenaline rush of a pennant race to become effective again. Closing in meaningless games seemed to affect him mentally. His WHIP was only a tick higher. His ERA was a full run and a half higher over the previous season. Lest we forget, most players have a near 1 year adjustment period in New York. Ask Carlos Beltran. Frankie is only 28 this season. Let’s hope for the best. Glass half full.

Ryota Igarashi - Ryota is a reliever that has a power arm and wicked splitter. The soon to be 30 year old can be viewed throwing over at YouTube. He appears to have a fastball that explodes up and in to right handed batters. His split is obviously his “out” pitch. Hope for the best.

Kelvim Escobar - Kelvim is coming off shoulder surgery. He’s been a starter out in LA for the Angels, but will be a reliever in NY as he was early in his career with Toronto. Escobar has always had good movement on his pitches. Now pain free, he’ll be more effective as a setup man at this point in his career. Hope for the best.

Sean Green – Sean had an uneven, inconsistent year with the Mets. Another player who was overexposed last season due to injuries, He did terribly early, and made adjustments later in the season.  Sean is a situational reliever, not a setup man. If used as such, He should prosper. Hope for the best.

Pedro Feliciano – Pedro was very good last season. The soon to be 34 year old was used in 88 games and threw 59 + innings. His WHIP was only 1.16. Most important is his status as our primary LH reliever.  A quality pitcher, the Mets need another season like last year from Pedro to return to their winning ways. There is no reason to think Pedro can’t be successful again as long as he’s not overused. Glass half full.

Bobby Parnell – Bobby” had an up and down season last year and was force fed on the major league level. His true calling appears to be as a reliever. He just doesn’t have enough quality pitches beyond his fastball to be considered a starter.  He does throw very hard. I watched games where he hit 99 on the JUGS gun. If he had better movement with that pitch and learned a splitter, Bobby could be devastating as a short reliever. Glass half full.

If you look at things objectively, the Mets could be very good this year.  Or bad again. It will depend on health and bounce back seasons from almost everyone on the team.  Younger players need to progress, and veterans need to return to form.  Indeed, hope springs eternal optimism, especially in baseball, especially with our Mets.

The folks over at Baseball Prospectus just published their 2010 projected standings. For the life of me, I’ll never understand this whole scientific approach to these things. Last season, as I do every season, I posted my own projections and got 4 out of 6 first place teams right, and my system is no better than throwing darts! Anyhow, here’s their take on the NL East…

1. Philadelphia Phillies 88-74
2. Atlanta Braves 85-77
3. Washington Nationals 82-80
4. New York Mets 77-85
5. Florida Marlins 76-86

Wow, they have the Nationals finishing ahead of us and the Mets closer to last place (one game) than third place (five games).

In all fairness, these projections were probably prepared before the news broke that the Mets have re-signed Fernando Tatis. No word on whether there will an updated version released.

On the positive side for Yankees haters like myself, they have the Bronx Bombers finishing third despite all of their significant upgrades, and the Rays finishing in first place. In fact they have the Rays winning more games (96) than any other MLB team. Did I miss something this off season?

I have a feeling that someday I’m actually gonna get all this advanced metrics stuff, and that I’ll look back at my former self and shake my head in disbelief… Nah, probably not.

Anyway, you can check out their complete standings here.