Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
Dan Szymborski of Fangraphs has released his National League “Lockout Projected ZiPS Standings” for the 2022 season. According to the projections, despite Freddie Freeman assumed to leave in free agency, the New York Mets project to finish behind the Atlanta Braves.
According to the projections, the Mets will finish the 2022 season with an 88-74 record finishing two games behind the Braves. They are also projected to have a 34.3% of winning the division, 24.4% chance of grabbing a Wild Card spot, 58.7% chance of making the postseason, and a 5.6% chance of winning the World Series.
Now, this may come as a surprise to many Mets fans with the team’s additions this offseason headlined by Max Scherzer and Starling Marte. However, as Szymborski notes the Mets roster still has holes remaining in it. In all honesty, he has a point with the Mets still needing to rebuild the bullpen, the uncertainty around who plays second and third, and James McCann coming off a down season.
Irrespective of the holes, it should be noted the Mets currently have the second best postseason odds of any team not projected to win their division. On that note, ZiPS does project the Mets will be a postseason team in 2022. If that is indeed the case, Mets fans will like their chances with Jacob deGrom and Scherzer atop the rotation.
That said, we should not be reading these projections as overly definitive. First and foremost, it needs to be noted these are only projections. Much can happen over the course of the season including injuries to star players and down years from key players. Additionally, the offseason has not ended, and once the lockout ends, the Mets will be able to address the remaining holes in free agency and trades.
Mostly, as Szymborski notes, the Mets as currently constituted can still yet catch the Braves in 2022 and win the division. As he said, the Mets “probably underperformed their abilities as a group in 2021 and are close enough that with a bit of luck — I know, not a typical Mets phenomena — they can catch the Braves, especially in the Freeman-less scenario.”
Overall, the main takeaway from these ZiPS projections is the Mets have done well so far this offseason, but their work is not done. Should they continue to add this offseason, they will build a much stronger roster that can not only topple the Braves as defending division champions but also as defending World Series champions.
