When it comes to talking about team-controlled starting pitchers the New York Mets could potentially lock up to a long-term deal, reigning National League Cy Young winner, Jacob deGrom, is the first player that comes to mind. Given his ace status, it’s fair to assume that he’s the priority despite being two seasons away from free agency.

But as SNY’s Andy Martino points out, the organization will need to make a decision regarding Zack Wheeler much sooner, as he’s currently set to hit the open market next offseason. The only thing is that the Mets aren’t sure if they want to commit to the right-hander beyond the upcoming campaign. Martino’s report also notes that what Wheeler wants isn’t super clear.

And you know what? There’s nothing wrong with that. It actually makes a ton of sense for both Wheeler’s camp and the Mets to be a little skeptical of agreeing to an extension right now.

The Mets’ Point of View

Time is of the essence with regard to Wheeler’s impending free agency, but it may be hard for New York to really pin down the right-hander’s true value moving forward. He looked to be a solid asset during 2013 and 2014 before everything stalled due to undergoing Tommy John surgery and experiencing the setbacks that followed.

Not toeing the slab on a major-league mound for two full years is a long time for anyone. That’s especially true when it takes place during a hurler’s age-25 and age-26 seasons, campaigns that would’ve been crucial for Wheeler’s overall development.

Then, of course, came the 86.1 innings he struggled through in 2017 after such a long layoff. His 5.21 ERA, 4.64 SIERA, 32.8% hard-hit rate allowed, 1.56 homers allowed per nine innings, and 0.3 fWAR were all single-season career-worst marks. He followed that up with a less-than-stellar start in 2018 before morphing into the dominant hurler we saw take control over the season’s final four months (and, more particularly, in the second half).

Is he the 4.0-plus fWAR pitcher we saw emerge or the kind of hurler that typically lands in the 2.0-3.0 fWAR range? It’s hard to tell at this point, and some projection models are saying the same thing since there’s just not enough data available. As it currently stands, ZiPS is projecting him to accumulate 2.7 fWAR, which is the exactly what Steamer currently has him pegged to produce.

Unlike the situation with deGrom, the Mets should be taking a wait-and-see approach here. Are they running the risk of elevating Wheeler’s asking price if he sustains what he did for most of last year? Yes, but oh well — it’s OK to spend closer to top dollar for that kind of production.

Wheeler’s Point of View

It’s almost a guarantee that one of the first questions Wheeler will have to answer upon arriving in Port St. Lucie will be focused on his future in Queens and whether he wants to stick around. It’s almost another guarantee that he’ll say all the right things, touching on how he’d love to stick around and be a part of what’s happening, but baseball is a business, so he’ll have to see what happens.

In all honesty, though, I don’t blame him for wanting to wait it out. While the prospect of hitting the free-agent market doesn’t seem too appealing based off what’s happened the last two years, there may be a part of Wheeler thinking he might be selling himself short by signing an extension now.

If he can sustain what he just did (or something close to it) for the majority of 2019, any extension talks with the Mets will include a different (i.e. higher) dollar figure because of more data showing this leap in production is legitimate.

Does this feel like a bit of a risky proposition since there’s the possibility of him getting hurt? Well, sure, but he’s probably also feeling as strong as ever these days, which is evidenced by last year’s career-high fastball velocity of 95.9 mph. There’s also the possibility that he’d like have an opportunity of being a free agent and (hopefully) getting a choice of where he’d like to play for the next few years.

To Be Continued

If deGrom’s situation has told us anything, it’s that even if a potential extension for Wheeler does happen, it’ll probably be a little while before actually taking place. Watching something come together prior to Opening Day seems unlikely based of Martino’s report.

However, if he puts together another stellar campaign, it’d be surprising if general manager Brodie Van Wagenen didn’t at least bring up the idea of an extension toward the end of the regular season.

It’s not necessarily an ideal situation to have a crucial contributor’s immediate future be uncertain, but in this instance, it makes total sense from both sides, albeit for different reasons.