Willson Contreras Could Serve as Viable Alternative to Signing Catcher

With the annual winter meetings fully underway, things are starting to intensify in both free agency and on the trading market, meaning there’s a strong chance the New York Mets could look to address at least one of their glaring needs very shortly.

While acquiring an impact arm for the starting rotation is one of the biggest holes that must be filled this offseason, it’ll also be very important for the front office to bring in a reliable starting catcher before next season begins. But aside from J.T. Realmuto and James McCann, the rest of this year’s free-agent class is only filled with backup catchers who wouldn’t be able to help the Mets improve their backstop position.

Though New York has the resources to land either of those free-agent catchers, as management is currently working with plenty of financial flexibility this winter, it’d also be wise for them to keep their options open for a potential trade. If a bidding war were to ensue involving both Realmuto and McCann, which could certainly happen, then it’d make plenty of sense for the organization to at least consider a few alternative options before making a final decision.

Considering the Chicago Cubs are looking to revamp their roster this offseason, they could definitely be considered a potential trading partner, as they’re reportedly willing to listen to offers on catcher Willson Contreras. Still under the age-30 threshold, the two-time All-Star remains in the prime stage of his career and there’s no question he’d help move the needle forward for the Mets over the next several seasons.

From a financial aspect, Contreras still has two years of arbitration eligibility remaining on his current contract and is signed through the 2022 campaign, meaning he could earn less than both Realmuto and McCann in each of the next two seasons. Despite saving a little bit of money at the catcher position, the Cubs won’t be giving him away for free, and who could blame them, as they’ll be looking to receive a package of quality prospects in return.

While the Mets have depleted their minor-league system over the last few seasons thanks to former general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, they do still possess a ton of quality prospect capital and might be able to pull off this trade without surrendering any of the top five players in their system. For example, sending a package consisting of Mark Vientos, Dedniel Nunez, and Ali Sanchez in return for the superstar catcher would force them to send just one of their top-10 prospects, according to MLB.com, while also potentially filling multiple long-term holes for the Cubs at the same time.

Even though team president Sandy Alderson would prefer to solely spend money this offseason, this type of trade could prove to be an exception he’s willing to make, as Contreras’ low salary – made $4.5 million in 2020 – could increase the team’s chances to acquire another impact player or two. Adding to this, the 28-year old would be able to serve as a reliable hitter in the middle of the order and wouldn’t be a liability behind the plate, which would be a welcomed addition following Wilson Ramos‘ disappointing 2020 campaign.

Starting with his offense, the 6-foot-1 backstop witnessed a slight decline regarding his power metrics compared to his 2019 performance – where he posted a career-high 24 home runs and a .261 ISO – but still found a way to hit a considerable number of balls over the fence and was also considered an above-average run producer this past season. Along with his slugging results, the right-hander also generated a ton of hard-contact and was able to improve his discipline at the plate.

Over his 57 games in 2020, Contreras earned 225 plate appearances, producing seven home runs, 26 RBIs, .164 ISO, .307 BABIP, .336 wOBA, .341 xwOBA, .397 xwOBAcon, 8.9% walk rate, 25.3% strikeout rate, 31.1% chase rate (3.8% decrease from 2019), 19.5% LD rate, 47.4% GB rate, 33.1% FB rate, 10.4% barrel rate, 47.0% hard-hit rate, 109 wRC+ score, 1.6 fWAR rating and a slashing line of .243/.356/.407/.763.

In comparison to the rest of the majors, the Venezuela native barreled up the third-most balls (14), finished tied with the third-highest fWAR rating, tied for the fifth-most home runs, the fifth-most RBIs, tied for the 11th-highest OBP and hard-hit rate, along with the 17th-highest wOBA among all catchers who received at least 30 plate appearances this past season, according to FanGraphs.com.

Though he’s been widely known for his impressive offensive results and has historically been considered a poor defender, Contreras was able to change that narrative about himself, recording the best defensive statistical performance of his entire career. Working with first-year catching coach Craig Driver in 2020, the former Yale coach helped the talented backstop reinvent himself, which allowed him to significantly improve his pitch framing and his overall performance.

Starting with his metrics from BaseballSavant, the right-handed throwing catcher saved -4 runs from extra strikes and produced a 48.5% strike rate in 2019. But in 2020, he improved both of those statistics, saving two runs from extra strikes (tied for third-most among all qualified catchers in the majors) and creating a 51.2% strike rate (ninth-highest).

Digging even deeper into his defensive transformation, Contreras finished with the seventh-highest CDA (2.9), tied for the seventh-highest CSAA (.008), and tied for the fifth-highest CSAA runs (2.7), according to BaseballProspectus.com.

As for the 2019 campaign, the Cubs’ backstop posted a -9.7 CDA (eighth-lowest), -.010 CSAA (tied for 11th-lowest), along with a -9.4 CSAA runs (fourth-lowest).

Despite compiling almost 500.0 fewer innings behind the plate this past season, it’s clear Contreras has finally turned the corner defensively and should be able to maintain these outstanding results moving forward. As a result, there’s a very strong chance he could be in the conversation for both a Silver Slugger and a Gold Glove award in each of the next several seasons.

At the right price, acquiring either Realmuto or McCann would probably serve as the better option for Alderson and his staff, but the Mets won’t be backed into a corner if they aren’t confident about exceeding their price point. Sitting as a viable third option, the front office could easily turn their attention to Contreras if they feel the free-agent market rises too high for their liking.

Though they’d likely need to start negotiating a contract extension with him after next season, the organization might have a better understanding of their future spending at that point, as they only have $68 million on the books for the 2022 campaign. Since management wouldn’t be competing against any other team for his services, there’s also a chance they could sign the superstar catcher to a smaller figure than Realmuto, which would be a massive accomplishment.

Whoever the Mets acquire over the next few months, one thing is for sure, they’re determined to improve their catching position next season and finally have the right person at the wheel, yes, that’s Alderson, to accomplish that feat.