Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
Waiting for the MLB lockout to reach a conclusion is taking forever, which means this winter has been incredibly boring without any semblance of Hot Stove news to keep us warm. We should’ve expected this because the New York Mets had clearly planned on dropping a boatload of money for on-field talent, and now we’re stuck waiting for a new Collective Bargaining Agreement so general manager Billy Eppler and Co. can keep going.
Whenever Eppler can start spending Steve Cohen’s money again, there are a few areas they’d like to improve, like getting another bat for the lineup, as well as strengthening the pitching staff. One area of the roster that (likely) won’t be getting an upgrade is catcher. Based on some early projections, that’s unfortunate.
Let’s dive into exactly how bleak it’s looking at the moment while also putting it into perspective.
Mets’ 2022 Catcher Projections
As the team is currently constructed, the Mets will be handing the majority of playing time behind the plate to James McCann and Tomás Nido. When looking at FanGraphs’ ZiPS projections for each backstop, it’s clearly the biggest potential weakness for New York on the position-player portion of the roster.
In 420 plate appearances, McCann is projected to slash .236/.293/.368 with 11 home runs and 48 RBI, which would be good for an 81 OPS+ and be the main driver behind a 0.8 fWAR. Nido is projected to hit .219/.254/.339 with four homers and 19 RBI in 375 plate appearances, which would be good for a 62 OPS+ and 0.2 fWAR.
Other available projections are expecting a similar story from this duo, with FanGraphs’ depth-chart projections ranking New York’s catchers to post a collective fWAR of 1.9. Only the Colorado Rockies (1.6) and the San Francisco Giants (1.5) have a worse projection for their catchers.
Projections should be taken with a grain of salt, but that’s not great, Bob. And when looking back on the Mets’ past performances at catcher, it’s more of the same story we’ve seen in recent years.
Catcher Production From Recent History
If you’ve been wondering exactly how good (or bad) New York’s catching production has been, you don’t have to wonder any longer. Below is the team’s OPS, wRC+, and fWAR at the position between 2015 and 2021.
The collective catcher fWAR from 2021 was actually the highest it’s been since 2017, but it’s not exactly anything worth writing home about — especially the offensive statistics. It’s also hard to look at when comparing New York’s overall catcher production to the rest of baseball during this period.
The Mets haven’t been among the league’s top-10 in catcher fWAR since 2015. The last time they placed better than 20th was in 2017 when they finished 15th. New York’s 1.1 catcher fWAR from this past year ranked 23rd in baseball, which is the second-worst MLB ranking during this period (2018 was worse, ranking 27th).
This is most certainly not a new issue with the Mets. However, unless McCann can turn things around or Nido can produce with some sort of regular playing time, it’ll be a weak spot for this club for yet another year.
Looking Ahead (Short- and Long-Term)
That’s not to say a rebound from McCann or a breakout from Nido can’t happen — it’s just hard for any projection system to say such a thing without a ton of prior data to back it up.
McCann did post a .808 OPS and a 114 wRC+ through 587 plate appearances from 2019-20. But with career numbers of .686 and 84, respectively, along with a huge regression in 2021, it currently looks more like an anomaly than anything else. Nido got regular playing time this past May when the bench mob became the starting mob and he produced a .872 OPS and 138 wRC+ in 47 plate appearances. But he has career numbers of .566 and 52, respectively, and hasn’t accumulated more than 161 plate appearances in a single season.
Someone could bust out and be a true offensive asset, but it’s not something the Mets should be depending on for 2022. Based on how they’ve approached this offseason prior to the lockout, the goal was to clearly boost other areas of the team’s lineup so not getting a ton of offense out of the catcher position wouldn’t be a huge deal. Most importantly, they’ll need to take care of the pitching staff, and any offense they bring to the table will be viewed as a bonus.
Looking a little further down the road, these dudes are likely just keeping the position warm for top prospect, Francisco Álvarez. He finished 2021 in High-A Brooklyn, and while he’s only 20 years old, MLB.com estimates he’ll be arriving in the big leagues in 2023. If he continues hitting like he did last season (.272/.388/.554 with 24 homers and 70 RBI in 400 plate appearances), there would be little reason to not let him loose. Especially if the Mets’ projected catching tandem continues to be a weak spot.
Getting production at catcher has been an issue for New York for a few years now, but with Álvarez ascending through the farm system, it hopefully won’t be an issue for much longer.
