Will the Mets still be with 28 in 2015?
Now that we’ve “officially” moved into the 2015 audition portion of this season (a circumstance apparently triggered by the loss of single game-the rubber match of this past week’s series vs. the Nationals), Mets management has vowed to take an extended look at certain candidates for regular roles on next year’s roster.
Chief among these are Wilmer Flores at shortstop and Matt den Dekker in left, but clearly the construction of the 2015 lineup will depend on a host of factors beyond the numbers that those two can put up over the next seven weeks.
With the extent of the financial constraints imposed by ownership ever a subject of speculation on the part of a hopeful (and generally unrealistic) fanbase, the likelihood of the importation of game-breaking talent along the lines of a Troy Tulowitzki remain a low-percentage possibility. Consequently, it makes sense to assume that while nothing should be ruled out if certain bats are made available on the trade market this winter, the expected course to be taken by the front office will hew close to the established pattern of searching for buy-low options to complement a group of young, cheap, controllable talent.
Not that such an approach cannot meet with success – we all console ourselves with reminders of the triumphs of small market dynamos like the Bay Area’s brace of seemingly perennial contenders, the A’s and Giants, but as this year’s squad heads inexorably toward a sixth straight losing finish, most of us are looking for something of a more radical departure from the standard practices of the front office and ownership to help jolt the team out of the doldrums.
The Curtis Granderson signing of last winter aside, big-ticket free agent signings still don’t appear to be the order of the day despite the returns on investment enjoyed by those partaking in the influx of Cuban talent over the past few years (the news that the cross-town Yanks are already moving toward negotiations with Rusney Castillo, the latest of these imports is both predictable and galling). No, it is clear that now that the Mets organization is in possession of a farm system that could be said to be at least somewhat “brimming” with talent, the trade market will likely hold the key to providing whatever quick fix can be found for an anemic lineup desperately in need of a supplement.
So the process of evaluation begins in earnest: who stays and who goes? Who qualifies as an “untouchable” and who is clearly an interchangeable part? Opinions will vary of course, but some assumptions can be made as to what designations are likely to be made. Accordingly, some thoughts on the subject:
ROTATION: If the apparent starting five for next year is comprised of Harvey, Wheeler, deGrom, Gee, and Niese, then the parts in play to either be dealt or used as replacements in the event of the trade of a member of the projected rotation are Bartolo Colon, Noah Syndergaard, and Rafael Montero. Naturally, outside of keeping Harvey and dealing Colon, the relative merits of retaining or dealing any member of this group (depending on the proposed return) could be debated endlessly. Clearly many would support the idea of dealing one of the finesse arms (Gee/Niese) to obtain a bat, but it is young, power arms that tend to be demanded in return for the most desirable offensive components on the market. Consequently, Messrs. Wheeler, deGrom, and Syndergaard would appear to be the most likely chips to be included in a deal that returns some legitimate thump. With all the recent scuttlebutt regarding scouts from the Cubs and Rockies watching Thor’s latest outing, it seems clear where their interest is focused. Still, I am nowhere near convinced that ownership is prepared to assume the Tulo contract and frankly, the home/road splits and health issues of Carlos Gonzalez concern me, so my hopes with respect to the implications of this interest rest with what the Cubs have to offer. Here we can be specific: Javier Baez or Addison Russell. The areas of need and areas of surplus talent match so well between the two teams that a swap seems only logical, but we can only cross our fingers here and hope. Because the Chicago Northsiders are more than an arm away from contention, they will probably look for more than a straight-up swap of top prospects, but I imagine that something could be worked out to the satisfaction of both sides. For the Mets’ part, Baez can now be considered major league ready while Russell has yet to play a game at AAA, but I would jump at the chance to obtain either. Naturally, the Cubs would likely prefer to deal the talented but defensively erratic Starlin Castro than either of the aforementioned duo, but I would certainly expect the Mets to insist on one of the two prospects.
INFIELD: As Daniel Murphy continues to rack up one multi-hit game after another, one wonders how a team starved for offense could even consider trading the most prolific bat in their lineup. Still, the contract considerations going forward as he approaches free agency in 2016 may push the Mets to make him available and open up the second base slot for an eventual long-term successor from within the system (numerous candidates exist as detailed in a previous post). One of those candidates, Wilmer Flores, is currently being given an audition at shortstop (or so the team claims), but also is being showcased as a versatile infield bat. In fact, one could rightly regard both Murphy and Flores as displaced third-sackers on a team whose primary veteran face occupies that position. Flores’ youth and record of having hit at every minor league stop makes him a worthwhile gamble for any team, in my opinion, but if he actually manages to establish a degree of legitimacy at short during the remainder of this season, he may provide enough of a fallback option for the front office to pass on a deal for a replacement if the demands are judged to be too high. After all, we all know you can’t have too much pitching, right?
OUTFIELD: If Matt den Dekker’s audition proves a success, the Mets will have another interesting chip to dangle during the offseason in the form of a legitimate center fielder, whether that is den Dekker himself or the human highlight reel known as Juan Lagares. One could probably toss Kirk Nieuwenhuis into that mix as well, although the team’s decision to assign him the role of fourth outfielder and bat-off-the-bench speaks somewhat to their regard for his abilities as a full-time player. Curtis Granderson’s presence on the waiver wire this past week, while not unusual in terms of typical moves by a front office in August, suggests that the Mets might well regard either den Dekker or Capt. Kirk as comparable replacements for the level of play the team has received from Grandy this season. If this is the case, they would also not hesitate to make him available during the winter, one would expect. But, 34 year-old players (as of the beginning of the 2015 season) with $47 million in contractual obligations need to produce at a higher level than this year’s tally to generate much interest. I expect he’ll be here for a while.
BULLPEN: Now that the Mets have finally established a mostly-reliable relief corps, it’s time to break them up, right? Not really, but it does make sense that other teams would be attracted to the contingent of hard-throwing righties at the back end of the NY pen. Mejia has warmed to the closer spot and even established a signature move (not a requirement but it does score some style points), while Familia and Black loom as potential ninth-inning men in either another setting or an alternate Mets’ universe. The return of Bobby Parnell next season, assuming he displays a return to form during spring training, creates the potential of a surplus of power relievers. Since teams don’t generally deal players coming off surgery during the off-season, one would expect that one of the proven and presumably healthy commodities could be had for the right price. Personally, Familia strikes me as the best bet for closer going forward as his WHIP (a stat more significant for relievers than starters, in my opinion) is much better than Mejia’s. Same case with Vic Black, whose expressed preference for the closer’s role speaks to his temperament as well. Am I making a case to trade Jenrry? You decide.
As we all look for signs that the move into a “Golden Era of Contention” has arrived, we have all had to deal with the fatigue of yet another losing slog toward an off-season of dreams. Maybe this time around a few of those dreams will come true. I’ve got my fingers crossed.
