Tonight, the St. Louis Cardinals head out west to begin a pivotal four game series against the San Francisco Giants that will have far reaching implications on the National League Wild Card race. With each game played, the Mets will both gain ground on one team and lose ground to another. As the series begins, here is where the Wild Card race stands:
1. San Francisco Giants (77-67)
2. New York Mets (77-68)
St. Louis Cardinals ( 1/2 Game Back)
Miami Marlins (5 Games Back)
Pittsburgh Pirates (6 Games Back)
Colorado Rockies (8 Games Back)
With the Mets being idle, one of two things are going to happen today: (1) they are going to be tied with the Giants for the first Wild Card; or (2) they are going to be tied with the Cardinals for the second Wild Card.
Case for the San Francisco Giants
Each generation of Mets fan has a tale of woe that has come at the hands of the St. Louis Cardinals. There was the Terry Pendleton home run off Roger McDowell in 1987, and Carlos Beltran looking at an Adam Wainwright curveball in 2006. There have been many other instances, and if history is any indication, there will be more. It is quite understandable if Mets fans do not want to see a Cardinals uniform in a winner-take-all Wild Card Game.
There are other baseball reasons to want to face the Giants over the Cardinals. Since the All Star Break, the Giants have had the worst record in all of baseball. Their ace, Madison Bumgarner, has struggled in the second half going 4-5 with a 3.87 ERA. The last time Bumgarner pitched against the Mets he only lasted five innings allowing six hits, four runs, four earned, and three walks while striking out six. Bumgarner isn’t the only Giants star that has struggled in the second half.
Buster Posey is in the midst of the worst year in his career. He is hitting .274/.352/.366 with only one home run in the second half. Posey is a major reason why the Giants have scored the third least runs in the National League after the All Star Break. You would have to like the Mets chances against this lineup when they are hopefully sending Noah Syndergaard to the mound.
Even if the Giants were to get an early lead on the Mets in the Wild Card Game, it will not be a safe lead for a Giants bullpen that has completely fallen apart. Santiago Casilla has lost his closer’s job. Joe Nathan was given a chance, but only proved why he was a 41 year old pitcher in the minors this year. Hunter Strickland crashed and burned in his first chance to take over the closer’s position. Fact is, the Giants don’t have a bullpen that can protect a lead and that is really dangerous against a Mets team that has Yoenis Cespedes ready, willing, and able to hit a clutch home run late in the game.
In addition to the Giants falling apart, the Mets could very well have more trouble with the Cardinals. Yadier Molina is a Mets killer. Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk give the Mets fits. While the Cardinals rotation has been a big disappointment this season, Carlos Martinez has pitched like an ace this year and is 3-1 with a 1.75 ERA against the Mets. If the Cardinals get a lead, Seung-hwan Oh has shown himself to be a dominant closer. Given the past history, and how poorly the Mets matchup against the Cardinals, they would be better off facing the Giants.
Case for the St. Louis Cardinals
We can say all we want about Madison Bumgarner having a tough second half, and it is true. However, under no circumstances do you want to face him in a winner-take-all game. You only have to look at the 2014 Wild Card Game, when Mad-Bum pitched a complete game shutout. In Game 7 of the World Series, he came out of the bullpen to pitch five shutout innings to earn the save. In his postseason career, he is 7-3 with a 2.14 ERA and a 0.883 WHIP. You don’t want to be anywhere near him.
In addition to this, many people will remind you that you don’t want to face the Giants because it is an even-numbered year.
No matter how much better the Mets may matchup against the Cardinals, you always want to avoid an ace like Bumgarner in the postseason. Pitching wins, and the Cardinals have no one on the level of Bumgarner.
Case for a Split
A sweep at the hands of the other could bury one of the Wild Card contenders. The corollary to that is it will rejuvenate one of the two Wild Card contenders. As it stands, the Giants and Cardinals have seemingly had trouble getting out of their own way. If either team was able to sweep or take three out of four in the series, it will be a significant mental boost that could lead to them playing better baseball from here on out. Ideally, the Mets do not want to face a hot team in that Wild Card game.
Ideally, the Mets would also have home field in the Wild Card Game. Unless, the Mets sweep the Twins, which may prove to be more difficult than it should be with Gabriel Ynoa potentially slated to go on Sunday, the Mets will trail one of these two teams for home field in the Wild Card race. As of right now, the Mets do not have any teams over .500 remaining on their schedule. If the Mets take care of business, they should be able to earn a Wild Card spot no matter what happens in the Giants-Cardinals series.
As it stands, the Mets would probably want to face the Giants, and they would want to face them at home. However, baseball is an unpredictable game, and as we have learned far too often, you should be careful for what you wish for.
