The non-tender deadline for pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players is today at 8 p.m. The Mets have 30 players they can tender a contract to, and they will make decisions on those players by the deadline.

Before we get into who might get non-tendered, though, let’s quickly go through arbitration-eligible players who absolutely will be tendered a contract for the 2021 season, with their salary estimates (by Spotrac) in parentheses:

Players like Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Andres Gimenez, David Peterson and others who are of pre-arbitration status will most likely all be tendered contracts because the Mets get to determine the salary of any pre-arbitration player.

That’s often the major league minimum, which in 2021 will be $570,500. You get rare cases where stars (like Pete Alonso last year) will make slightly more than the minimum as a way for the organization to let the star player know they’re treating them as such: rare cases.

All around baseball it’s expected more players than usual will get non-tendered for the upcoming season. This is largely due to the financial situations surrounding a shortened season with no fans. Players who might’ve been nice to gamble on following a down year or two for, say, $4 million may not be worth the price to some teams when you can find a replacement-level player for the major league minimum.

But here’s where the Mets situation is different: Steve Cohen. (That’s a phrase we’ve said quite a bit the last month, haven’t we?)

The Mets may be able to take those gambles, but there may be some the Mets deem not worth it. The Mets can also make pre-deadline deals with each of these players for cheaper salaries than they are projected to make as a way to retain a player who wouldn’t get as much as they are projected on the open market, like they did with Jacob Barnes.

He signed for $750,000–a raise from his 2020 salary (before being prorated) and potentially less than what he would’ve made in his first year of arbitration.

Now let’s take a look at some of the players who may be non-tendered before the deadline on Wednesday.

Steven Matz

Matz is the most expensive non-tender candidate the Mets have. He’s projected to make $5.2 million (just a $200,000 raise) in his final arbitration year.

We’ve gone through Matz’s up-and-downs with the team, including his disastrous 2020 season. But Matz is one of the guys the Mets could take a gamble on that most other teams probably wouldn’t due to his projected salary. Matz is working with Phil Regan this offseason, which also could lead one to believe the Mets are dedicated to putting in the resources for Matz to correct his 2020 issues. Remember: Matz had a career 4.05 ERA over 103 games (101 starts) before 2020.

There’s a chance Matz makes a pre-deadline deal as he probably wouldn’t make $5.2 million on the open market, giving the Mets some leverage.

Robert Gsellman

The 27-year-old is projected to make $1.3 million in his second year of arbitration. The problem for Gsellman, who is an Alderson draftee in 2011, is he hasn’t really found sustained success in any role he’s been in over the last three-and-a-half seasons.

He was mostly a starter in 2016 and 2017, then mostly a reliever in 2018 and 2019. He had two relief appearances and four starts in 2020 as the Mets experienced a quick depth issues in their rotation, but his year was bookended by trips to the injured list and not very good results in either role.

Gsellman’s case got a lot more interesting in the final 36 hours before the deadline. The Mets signed Trevor May as another right-handed arm out of the bullpen, creating a logjam at the bottom for righty relievers like Gsellman. The Mets could bring him back and stretch him out as a starter for depth purposes if they don’t want him in the bullpen, or they could just cut bait and clear a roster spot.

Miguel Castro

Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

The Mets acquired Castro from the Orioles for prospects Kevin Smith and Victor Gonzalez in August, as a last ditch effort to make a push for the playoffs. But the trade did not quite work out as planned. Castro made 10 appearances pitching to the tune of a 4.00 ERA and 14.0 K/9 rate, while allowed 11 hits in nine innings over the final month of the season. That’s some of the good. His eight walks per nine innings? The bonkers pitch locations for all of his pitches? Not quite as good.

Castro, who’s turning 26 in December, may get innings at the back end of a Mets bullpen in 2021. The “stuff,” as they say, is there. He probably won’t be needed in as many high-leverage situations as he was at the end of the season in 2020 if he comes back in 2021, and he’d only cost around $1.5 million.

It’s up to Alderson & Co. to decide if they want to take another look at the righty.

Guillermo Heredia

Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Heredia was a nice piece in center field for the Mets for the final week of the 2020 season, getting into seven games and hitting two home runs. Though intended to be a depth piece after being claimed from the Pirates, Heredia squeezed in a couple starts once that depth was tested with Michael Conforto and Jake Marisnick getting injured.

He is projected to make $1.4 million in his second year of arbitration. The Mets, though, are looking to significantly upgrade center field during the offseason. Heredia could come back as another depth piece at a price negotiated before the deadline. The Mets could also choose to use players like Nimmo and Conforto in center for the handful of a games a new upgrade isn’t playing the position. There’s also the option for depth pieces cheaper than Heredia in center. We’ll get a sense of what the Mets are thinking come the non-tender deadline.

Chasen Shreve

Shreve, to me, seems like a no-brainer to bring back in 2021. He was one of the best relievers on the team in 2020, and he’ll come at a price tag of just around $1 million.

The lefty was used mostly in multi-inning stints, most notably in a September 3rd game the Mets won against the Yankees, where he pitch 2.1 hitless innings to keep them in the game after a rough Gsellman start. That middle relief depth proved valuable last year. He’s also the only lefty reliever with major league success they have control of (Justin Wilson is a free agent) for this upcoming season.

We will see, though, with a new administration what the Mets have planned for the bullpen. Shreve will be a free agent after this upcoming season.

Ariel Jurado

Ariel Jurado is the only pre-arbitration player who may not be tendered a contract ahead of the deadline. He made one start for the Mets in 2020 and gave up five runs in four innings. He spent much of the rest of the season at the alternate site. In two seasons with the Rangers before the Mets acquired him (for Stephen Villines and cash), his ERA hovered just below 6.00.

Though the 24-year-old has multiple years of control left and was once a top prospect in the Rangers system, Jurado is one of the first candidates who could get cut as the Mets clear out 40-man roster spots for free agents.