It seems like just yesterday the New York Mets were coming off of their 11-1 streak to start the year. Perhaps because it just less than 2 weeks ago, but it certainly feels like an eternity ago, now that the Mets have gone 4-7 since. One has to ask, who are the real Mets?
I want to start with something that people have become doomsday preacher about: the Mets pitching staff. As it stands right now, this is how the Mets look compared to the rest of the league:
| Stat | Mets | MLB Rank |
| ERA | 3.65 | 10th |
| FIP | 3.65 | 8th |
| xFIP | 3.49 | 4th |
| K/9 | 10.02 | 5th |
| BB/9 | 3.14 | 7th |
| HR/9 | 1.05 | 16th |
| WAR | 3.1 | 8th |
As we can see, the Mets pitching staff has been rather excellent, they have had a bit of an issue with giving up home runs, but outside of that, they have fared particularly well. Mets fans should be encouraged by the general success of the pitching staff.
The biggest concerns one may have about the staff would definitely be the backend of the rotation. Here’s how they look:
| Pitcher | ERA | FIP | K/9 | BB/9 | WHIP |
| Harvey | 5.87 | 4.57 | 7.43 | 1.96 | 1.43 |
| Matz | 4.98 | 5.44 | 10.80 | 4.15 | 1.29 |
| Wheeler | 4.24 | 4.53 | 6.35 | 3.18 | 1.24 |
Harvey has pitched with fairly decent control, as can be seen from his walk rate, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is likely better than you may have expected. Still, he has had some trouble giving up home runs, which is where he’s faltered because of command in the strike zone.While they haven’t been the most effective bunch, to say that they haven’t fared their share of bad luck, bloop hits, and questionable defense at times wouldn’t be fair.
Matz is striking guys out at rates not previously seen from him, but he’s also walking guys at an unhealthy rate, and giving up home runs (2.1 HR/9) after doing so. Nevertheless, his control with men on is where he gets hurt (which I’ll write more on this coming weekend) and he has shown signs of brilliance without.
Wheeler looks the best when one look at his ERA, but his strikeout-to-walk ratio has been less than encouraging. On the plus side, he has been keeping the ball inside of the park (1.1 HR/9) , and not letting up many hard hits. Walks and soft hits are definitely what are killing Wheeler right now. Wheeler also needs to show off his secondary showings, where as he has just tried to blow guys away with his fastball.
The Mets rotation should also see a boost when Jason Vargas joins the rotation this weekend. He’s been a solid back-end starter in his career with a 4.17 ERA, 4.36 FIP and 1.31 WHIP over 1400 major league innings.
What about the Mets offense? What do they look like compared to rest of the league?
| Stat | Mets | MLB Rank |
| AVG | .231 | T-20th |
| OBP | .325 | T-10th |
| SLG | .372 | T-21st |
| ISO | .141 | T-22nd |
| wOBA | .308 | T-19th |
| wRC+ | 97 | T-15th |
| BB% | 10.9 | 4th |
| K% | 23.4 | T-18th |
| BABIP | .286 | T-22nd |
It’s easy to see that the Mets offense has not gotten to the start that we’ve expected, and that’s due to slow starts from guys like Michael Conforto, Yoenis Cespedes, and Jay Bruce. No doubt that it’s also in part of bad starts by guys like Adrian Gonzalez, and Jose Reyes. Certainly, the Mets have also been hindered by the fact that they’ve lost both of their starting catchers at the start of the year.
One player that I didn’t mention has been the slow-starting Amed Rosario. Despite his .238/.289/.338 start, I do believe that he is showing some signs of encouragement. Observe:
| Year | O-swing | Z-Swing | Swing | O-Con | Z-Con |
| 2017 | 48.1% | 63.9% | 55.4% | 55.1% | 79.1% |
| 2018 | 39.7% | 59.4% | 48.9% | 62.1% | 80.3% |
One other factor about Rosario is that he’s already exceeded his walk total from last year of three in 170 plate appearances with four in just 78. His walk rate his increased from 1.8 percent last year, to 5.1 percent this year. Despite not having the immediate results, I do believe he’ll come through as the season progresses.Now, I don’t want anyone to misconstrue this argument and say that I’m saying that Rosario is a patient hitter by any means. Nonetheless, what can be seen from this chart here is that he’s being far more selective with his swings in 2018. He’s making more contact in and outside of the zone, and swinging at less stuff out of the zone. The problem is he’s also swinging at less stuff inside of the zone, too. I do believe that this will fall into a proper balance as the year goes on.
As for the rest of the offense, it’s hard to imagine a season with the entire starting outfield underperforming to this degree. Conforto, Cespedes, and Bruce currently have a 112, 77, and 97 wRC+ respectively. Conforto didn’t have much of a spring after returning quickly from a dislocated shoulder, and Bruce has been dealing with plantar fasciitis. This is not the mean for which they will produce at.
While Cespedes hasn’t gotten hot yet, he has been hitting .375/.448/.667 with RISP and .326./.388/.581 with men on. He’s still been a bat that is feared in the lineup, and has produced at opportune times.
The one particular issue that I have with the offense is the lack of production coming from first base.
Gonzalez has only hit .203/.300/.322 in his first 19 games. While one could say that his .217 BABIP is a reason for his lack of production, especially with him hitting balls harder than he ever has in his career, one still has to be concerned. He’s also been taking pitches better than he has in the last eight years (12.9 percent BB rate), and only striking out a bit more than his career marks (18.6% and 17.4% respectively). Whether he will trend upwards or not may not have a discernible time frame, as he seems to be on a potentially shorter leash right now.
One other less than encouraging bat has been that of Jose Reyes. Hitting .120/.154/.120, Reyes has not won himself a spot with the fanbase this season. While Reyes is making a lot of contact, the problem is with how he’s making contact. His soft contact rate is at 33.3 percent, which is about a third higher than his 21.9 percent career mark. Hard contact hasn’t favored him either, sitting at 14.3 percent, way down from his 24.6 percent career mark.
I’m not saying that Reyes’ time with the Mets is over, but I am saying that the Grim Reaper is twirling his blade impatiently waiting to make his move here. I do think that Reyes should accept an assignment to Las Vegas, and work on getting his timing back if he wants to stay on this team.
The bulk of what I’m saying is that, despite the last week and change, the pitching has been good, and the bats will come around. The Mets are still half a game up in first place, so lets take a deep breath. This cold streak is just temporary.
