David Stearns has made starting pitching a priority this offseason. He needed to, as you could only feel confident in handing rotation spots in 2024 to two people: Kodai Senga and José Quintana. While Stearns’ white whale this offseason–Yoshinobu Yamamoto–signed with the Dodgers, Stearns has still been active in acquiring starters. He also still reportedly plans to trade for more starting pitching.
So let’s look at where the team’s starting pitching depth stands right now with right around five weeks until pitchers and catchers report to spring training.
Kodai Senga. Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Projected Starters in 2024
- Kodai Senga
- José Quintana
- Sean Manaea
- Luis Severino
- Adrian Houser
Stearns signed Severino and Manaea to what essentially will amount to one-year deals, and he dealt a reliever prospect recovering from Tommy John for Houser. As of today, these five will likely be the team’s starters the first time through. (Naturally, everything here is barring injury.)
Senga will lead the rotation, and Quintana will be the steady arm he was once he recovered from his injuries in 2023.
Depth in 2024
Megill finds himself in 2024 as a depth piece. Entering 2023, you felt good about that, but his rough season last year makes the other names in this group that much more important. Lucchesi showed flashes of excellence in his return from Tommy John, and Butto showed improved results at the MLB level.
Peterson is the best of this group—and might be locked in as an MLB starter—if it weren’t for his hip injury that will keep him out until June.
Mike Vasil. Photo by Rick Nelson
Starting Pitcher Prospects
Every pitcher on this list ended 2023 at Double-A or above. They’re also six of the top seven or so pitching prospects in the Mets’ system.
Between the three non-injured depth starters and these six prospects, the Double-A and Triple-A rotations should be nearly full to start the year. That’s quality depth.
This season is being viewed as somewhat of a bridge year to 2025, which is expected to see a stacked free agent class. Many of the team’s top position prospects—Drew Gilbert, Luisangel Acuña, Jett Williams—are expected to make MLB impacts in 2025, too. But this group of players’ growth in 2024 will be important to the 2025 rotation. And at least one person from this group—likely Mike Vasil, perhaps Christian Scott—will make a start at the MLB level this year. (There’s always one guy way down the depth chart who does.)
How Can They Add More Starters?
Stearns reportedly still wants to trade for more starting pitching. Some names tossed around on the trade market include Dylan Cease, Jesus Luzardo, and Corbin Burnes.
Could the team look to trade some of that depth in the minors this year for players who will make an impact this year? Based on how this offseason has unfolded, that wouldn’t feel likely unless the player had control beyond this year. (That would knock out Burnes. Cease and Luzardo have two years or more.) Perhaps he looks for more depth pieces in the realm of Houser, Megill and Lucchesi.
In any case, despite there not being a Yamamoto, Jacob deGrom or Max Scherzer currently leading the rotation, the team’s depth of starting arms right now is much deeper than it’s been in nearly a decade.
