Good morning everyone and I hope you all had a fantastic Thanksgiving weekend. I’ve had my fill of turkey, pumpkin pie and football, and I’m ready to get back to talking and writing about our New York Mets.
For most Met fans, there’s only one thing on everyone’s mind right now and it continues to be the status of the ongoing Yoenis Cespedes negotiations. What’s going on, where do things stand with the Mets, are there any teams we have to worry about? I’m going to tackle those questions and a few more as we try to wrap our hands around this continuing saga.
What’s the Latest?
It’s okay to come off your ledges, regardless of what you may have heard the Mets are clearly still the frontrunners to sign Cespedes and are in the proverbial driver’s seat. Over the last week, nothing’s really changed as everything continues to remain in a holding pattern until there’s more certainty regarding a new collective bargaining agreement. The current CBA expires on Thursday, December 1. More on that later.
Does Cespedes Have a 4-Year Deal In Hand?
No. Don’t believe everything you read. Cespedes does not have any offer that he’s mulling over and the so called rumor about that wasn’t even a legitimate rumor. The worst part about social media is how quickly fake news can run rampant aided by the media or bloggers giving it credence and undeserved relevancy by writing about it and repeating it. I warned you about that three weeks before with that bogus Yankees/Cespedes rumor that Brian Cashman finally gutted before the weekend. This 4-year deal is just another one of those false rumors being propagated by the same cast of players. You can all exhale now.
Are You Still Confident the Mets Will Re-Sign Cespedes?
Absolutely. The Mets have certain strategic advantages that no other teams have. These are just a few:
1. Relationships: Cespedes has forged many strong bonds and friendships with many of his teammates, team staff and people in the front office. Everyone wants him back and that makes Cespedes feel very good. Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera and Noah Syndergaard are three teammates he holds dear to and considers them brothers. There’s a lot of BS out there referring to Cespedes as a prima donna in the clubhouse or that he carries excess baggage, don’t believe a word of it. He is a beloved member of the team and is very well respected by the manager, coaches and players.
2. I Love New York: Cespedes feels at home in New York and he thrives in its limelight. He loves being the team’s star and how he’s treated by the fans and the media. He loves loves the city, the fine dining, and some of the best golf courses in the world. All those things are very important to him. This is home. Additionally, Cespedes owns a beautiful ranch and just purchased a new home in the St. Lucie area where the Mets spend two months every Spring. Location, location, location…
3. In The Zone: Cespedes has had his greatest run of success as a major leaguer batting in the middle of the Mets lineup. He’s achieved career highs across the board statistically including in slugging, home runs, wRC+, OPS and even his walk rate.
4. Unfinished Business: Don’t think for one minute that Cespedes isn’t bothered by his performance in last season’s Wild Card game and the World Series in 2015. This is a proud man and he’d like nothing better than to carry the Mets back into the postseason so that he can get another chance to deliver in the clutch on baseball’s grandest stage. This is a man who’s seeking some redemption and he already knows the Mets offer him a pathway back to the postseason.
What’s Different From Last Offseason?
There are some subtle differences like a weaker market that may bode well for Cespedes, but where it matters most, things are remarkably similar. Once again, Cespedes waits and waits for teams to do a mad scramble for his services and that is simply not the case. With all this talk of a five-year deal, I’ve seen no evidence that teams are willing to go that far for Cespedes. Zilch. Zero. None. So it raises the all important question that I ask of everyone who brings this up to me… Why should Sandy Alderson bid against himself?
Look, as long as teams are reluctant to commit to Cespedes for more than four years, the Mets are the odds-on favorites to sign him. For some reason most teams view Cespedes as a player who will not age well and there are some concerns about the quad injury that bothered him for most of the second half. So yeah, maybe five years poses a huge risk. Perhaps Cespedes gets $125 million for four years instead of $110, either way I’m confident it will be with the Mets.
Are the CBA Negotiations Slowing Things Down?
I have no doubt that the uncertainty regarding a new collective bargaining agreement has had a significant adverse effect on the hot stove season thus far. This is no different than in past negotiations, people have short memories I guess.
There’s a very good chance that the new CBA will eliminate the qualifying offer and draft pick compensation system. So in the case of Cespedes it makes a heck of a difference if a team will forfeit a first round pick or not. There’s also a possibility that the luxury tax threshold increases, which can impact whether a big market team will be in a position to sign a free agent looking for that huge $25 million per year mega deal.
The current CBA between the owners and player’s union expires on Dec. 1, but MLB commissioner Rob Manfred remains hopeful. “We are in the midst of active negotiations and are committed to completing an agreement.”
What Other Teams Are Looking at Cespedes?
As I mentioned last week, the Dodgers, Giants, Nationals and Blue Jays are the teams most often connected to Cespedes, but of the four only San Francisco is the biggest threat in my opinion. The Giants are very motivated to add a big bat, have the money to spend, and they have an opening in left field.
The Dodgers have to cut payroll and are in danger of violating MLB’s rule on debt ratio. Reports say that after four years of new ownership that the team is hundreds of millions in debt and must cut payroll for the second consecutive year. There are even concerns that they may not be able to retain Justin Turner let alone go chasing after Yoenis Cespedes. The Blue Jays are still making a strong push to sign Edwin Encarnacion and word is Encarnacion wants to stay. As for the Nationals, I’m not so sure they are equipped to spend what it would take.
Here is what’s important to remember; just because a team is interested in Cespedes, it doesn’t necessarily mean that Cespedes is interested in that team. It’s been widely reported that Cespedes prefers to remain on the East Coast. That doesn’t mean San Fran is out of the question, only that it may take a massive overpay like lets say five years, $160 million.
How and When Will This End?
Look, both the Mets and Cespedes have adamantly maintained that they want they want their relationship to continue and I believe both sides are very sincere. I still expect a deal to get done before the end of the Winter Meetings, which begin Sunday in Washington DC.
Sandy Alderson is a pragmatist and while he’s said he’d like to get a deal done by then, it is by no means a hard deadline or line in the sand as some are suggesting. So don’t worry is a deal isn’t reached by December 8. Sandy is not just going to end negotiations and move on to Plan B. He knows how important Cespedes is to the team more than me, you, and that other guy. Just be patient and I promise it will all work out in the end. I’m still going with our prediction of four years and $115 million dollars.
