Nothing has been made official yet, but when the New York Mets take the field against the Washington Nationals on Thursday, it’d be shocking to not see Pete Alonso making his MLB debut at first base. After all, general manager Brodie Van Wagenen has continuously said that New York will be taking the 25 best players north with them for Opening Day and beyond.

Dominic Smith has had himself a great spring, but it hasn’t matched what Alonso has done. Through 68 at-bats, the 24-year-old has slashed .368/.394/.647 with 10 extra-base hits (five doubles, one triple, four home runs), 11 RBI, 12 runs scored, and just 11 strikeouts.

The quality of opposing pitchers he’s faced fall somewhere between Double-A and Triple-A according to Baseball-Reference’s metrics, but the Mets could surely use his prodigious power in the middle of their lineup. Plus, he doesn’t have much left to prove at the plate after his breakout 2018 campaign in the minors.

With all this being said, it’ll be interesting to see how Alonso adjusts to the big leagues in 2019. If the adjustment is quick and he performs well, shooting up the franchise’s rookie standings won’t be that hard.

Mets’ Rookie of the Year History

New York has produced five different National League Rookie of the Year award winners. They include Tom Seaver (1967), Jon Matlack (1972), Darryl Strawberry (1983), Dwight Gooden (1984), and some guy named Jacob deGrom (2014). Outside of the long period between Gooden and deGrom earning this honor, what’s the other thing that jumps out here?

Strawberry is the only non-pitcher to win the award while donning the orange and blue as a first-year player. Immediately, the historical competition for Alonso shrinks even more.

While it’ll be tough for Alonso to produce the most rookie fWAR in Mets history — Gooden likely has that locked up at 8.3 — taking over the top spot for position players is well within reach. Strawberry’s ’83 campaign is at the top of the list with 2.8 fWAR, but Ike Davis (remember him?) actually tied that number in 2010. How attainable is this number if Alonso plays well for an extended period of time?

The third-highest rookie fWAR for Mets position players belongs to Jeff McNeil (and Kevin Mitchell, whom he tied), as he accumulated 2.7 fWAR in just 63 games.

Looking at Previously-Set Offensive Benchmarks

So it’s established that Alonso could certainly take the throne as the top rookie fWAR in franchise history, but what about the rest?

Strawberry’s 26 homers in 1983 was the only season of 20-plus homers by a Mets rookie, with Davis (19 in 2010) and Ron Swoboda (19 in 1965) coming the closest. There have also been only three years of 70-plus RBI: Strawberry (74 in ’83), Davis (71 in ’10), and Ty Wigginton (71 in ’03).

Citi Field has been tough on Mets hitters, but one has to imagine that Alonso’s pure power at least has a decent chance to overtake Strawberry in the dinger category. And based on the type of lineup New York will be assembling, the young first baseman will hopefully have plenty of chances to drive in runs.

The current leader in rookie OPS is Benny Agbayani (.888 in ’99), followed by David Wright (.857 in ’04) and a three-way tie for third (McNeil in ’18, Steve Henderson in ’77, and Lucas Duda in ’11, all with .852). McNeil, Duda, Henderson, Strawberry, and Mitchell each produced a wRC+ of at least 130 during their first big-league season, with McNeil currently holding the crown with a 137 mark.

When looking at Alonso’s recent performances in the minors and how he’s hit this spring, these numbers certainly feel as though they’re in his range of possible outcomes.

What Do The Projections Say?

Putting together a projection for a player that hasn’t yet accumulated any big-league plate appearances can be tough. That doesn’t stop any website from throwing things into their algorithm, though.

FanGraphs’ Steamer projections currently has Alonso tabbed for 1.6 fWAR, a .781 OPS, and 115 wRC+ — all well below some of the benchmarks discussed above. However, they’re also projecting him for 25 homers and 71 RBI in 503 plate appearances. ZiPS is also projecting similar homer (24) and RBI (71) numbers with a slightly lower OPS (.774) and higher fWAR (2.2).

Any way you slice it, Alonso is expected to be a big part of what the Mets are trying to accomplish in 2019. After not getting called up last year, it’s about time he gets this opportunity. And if things go well, he’ll not only rank among the better position-player performances in franchise history, but he’ll also have a shot at being the Mets’ first non-pitcher to win Rookie of the Year since 1983.