What’s Wrong With Dominic Smith?

Last offseason, there were a surprising amount of takes declaring that Dominic Smith was the Mets’ first baseman of the future, and not Pete Alonso. I was one of the seemingly few people arguing that way too many Mets fans were overreacting a 60-game sample, and that Alonso was still the better hitter and better overall player going forward.

The argument in favor of Smith doesn’t hold much weight anymore, as Smith has experienced a mediocre 2021 season while Alonso has been pretty much what he was expected to be. While Alonso hasn’t been quite as great as his phenomenal rookie season, he’s improved from his good but unspectacular campaign in the shortened 2020 season. Smith, meanwhile, has been worth negative fWAR in 2021.

So what’s wrong with Smith? His wRC+ has plummeted from 164 in 2020 to 84 this year, despite similar strikeout and walk rates. He’s hitting line drives at a nearly identical rate (0.2% increase), fewer ground balls (3.4% decrease) and more fly balls (3.3% increase). Despite a marginally stronger batting profile, his BABIP has gone from to .368 to .289, and his ISO has gone from a strong .299 to a measly .120.

As you might be able to guess from those numbers, the main difference for Smith has been his average exit velocity. In 2020, he was in the 66th percentile for average exit velocity and 86th percentile for barrel rate. This year, he’s dropped to the 45th percentile for average exit velocity, and all the way down to the 34th for barrel rate. That’s a massive drop.

While some of the BABIP drop could potentially be attributed to luck (both good in 2020 and bad in 2021), the lack of hard-hit balls obviously plays a huge factor into it. He’s still hitting the ball in the air — in fact slightly more so than in 2020 — which is good, but he’s just not squaring up the ball as consistently. What good is a fly ball or even a line drive if it’s not hit hard?

The reality is that Smith probably isn’t as good as his 2020 numbers or as bad as his 2021 numbers. But when looking at this year, and his career stats as a whole, it’s tough to be confident about his ability to be an everyday major league player. In 367 games and 1182 plate appearances, he’s accumulated a grand total of 1.2 fWAR. With Alonso manning first, Smith doesn’t provide much defensively, and he hasn’t hit enough to offset that.

The good news is that he at least has the right approach at the plate, considering that he’s hitting balls in the air, walking and striking out at similar rates to his 2020 season. The bad news is that he just isn’t hitting the ball hard enough. Some of it could be attributed to poor BABIP luck, but Smith is still going to have to turn it around to prove himself as one of the Mets’ core young players going forward.