The New York Mets’ 22-year-old catcher, Francisco Alvarez, has had an up-and-down season. In the middle of May, Alvarez tore the ulnar collateral ligament in his thumb which held him out of action until June 11. After a feeling out period, Alvarez went on a tear, before cooling off and finds himself in a prolonged slump. Further digging into Alvarez’s underlying metrics paint a troubling picture.
Alvarez’s traditional numbers are decent in 2024. He is slashing .263/.323/.429, good for an above average .742 OPS. However, his home run numbers have fallen off a cliff compared to last season (5.9% in 2023 to 2.3%), which is also evident in his isolated power (ISO) figure (.157 versus a .207 career number). Meanwhile, his strikeout (0.4% less) and walk rates (0.3% less) are relatively stabled compared to 2023.
As mentioned, Alvarez was on a tear in June after he returned, posting an OPS of 1.123. However, that OPS dropped all the way to a measly .577 in July. He has bounced back somewhat in August, posting a five-game hit streak. However, the power is still lacking mightily as he only has one extra-base hit in the month (.640 OPS). Not to mention, he now finds himself hitless over his last seven at-bats.
Francisco Alvarez. Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports
The Metrics
As pointed out above, the overall season numbers aren’t bad and actually say he has been an above-average offensive player (111 OPS+). However, the troubling aspect is what the underlying metrics are saying.
Alvarez is not consistently hitting the ball hard (32nd percentile average exit velocity) as he is failing to make good contact; 10th percentile “square-up” rate, 34th percentile barrel rate, and a sweet-spot contact rate that is one of the worst in the league. In addition, he is striking out too much (28th percentile strikeout rate) thanks to an extremely high whiff rate (13th percentile) and moderate chase rate. All of this is resulting in expected batting average (xBA), expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA), and expected slugging (xSLG) numbers well-below league average (.219 xBA, .275 xwOBA, .336 xSLG).
Luckily, his actual metrics are not as bad as what his expected numbers say and ultimately that is what that matters. However, when the expected statistics are as poor as they are over a longer sample, regression becomes much more likely. That is what we are finally seeing happen out of Alvarez as his season OPS has continued to drop from .900 to .742.
Defensively, Alvarez is once again showing that is he is one of the best framers in the game; 87th percentile in Baseball Savant’s framing metric. This has helped Mets pitchers considerably get calls most catchers don’t get for their pitchers. He has also posted really solid pop times; 81st percentile. However, that has not exactly translated to strong caught stealing numbers with him behind the plate (20% versus the 30% league average). Additionally, Alvarez has struggled blocking balls at the plate, which we have seen be sometimes due to his over-reliance on getting the framing right, which has cost the Mets at points this season (second percentile blocks above average rate).
Overall, though, in 2024 he has been very strong defensively with everything factored in. According to Fangraph’s total defensive rating, Alvarez ranks 19th among 94 catchers who have played in a game this season. He has less innings played than all but three of the catchers in front of him.
Francisco Alvarez. Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Takeaways
Alvarez’s first two professional seasons have certainly been intriguing. Last year’s batting profile confirms Alvarez hit the ball harder on a consist basis, thus the much-higher home run rates. However, during his short major-league career he has posted low expected batting average and weighted on-base percentage metrics, among other figures that predict future success.
He is certainly still developing as a hitter and luckily for him and both the Mets he is still only 22-years-old. With continued play one would assume his overall profile as a hitter continues to be developed and he becomes a more well-rounded hitter.
With all that being said, it is way too early to declare for sure, one way or the other, what Alvarez will be in the long term. He certainly appears to be all the tools to be the franchise catcher for years to come, however, the expected batting statistics have painted a troubling picture. Luckily, which is extremely rare for young catchers, Alvarez has already established himself as a solid defensive presence.
Hopefully health continues to be there for Alvarez and the rest of the season, and with consistent playing time, we will see the hitting profile become more consistent. As mentioned, the traditional numbers and the actual results have been decent for Alvarez offensively this season and that is all that matters. Hitting the ball harder and curbing that strikeout rate will help the regression from continuing and in return the expected numbers will start to get better which of course should equal strong play.
