The Mets received news Friday that Jacob deGrom, who’s been out since the All-Star break with various ailments, needs at least two more weeks for his elbow inflammation to calm down. Luis Rojas said deGrom’s injury has gotten better the two weeks he was shut down, but it’s not at the place it needs to be to start throwing again. (It should be noted that this suggestion came from Dr. Neal ElAttrache, one of the top orthopedic doctors in the world who deGrom went and saw while away from the team, and not the Mets doctors.)
This is obviously not good news. From 2015 to 2020, the 33-year-old had only been on the injured list two times–and both times, he spent the minimum 10 days. He’s now been on the injured list for a total of 42 days with at least another 30 days to go before he can even sniff pitching in another major-league game.
It’s been frustrating for deGrom, who expressed as much two weeks ago when talking at Marlins Park. “I feel like I was having the best year of my career,” he told reporters. The elbow flare up followed a forearm flare up, which followed lat soreness, which followed shoulder soreness.
So if deGrom is able to shed all the injuries and make it back this season, what should the rest of his 2021 look like? Let’s take a gander at a couple different scenarios.
Business As Usual
First, there’s the argument that, once his elbow isn’t hurting anymore, deGrom needs to build up length as much as possible until he can throw five or six innings in a game with ease. He’s the best pitcher in baseball, after all, and he should be throwing as many innings as is comfortable for his elbow.
The problem with that, though, is time.
On deGrom’s current timeline, he won’t throw again until at least August 27. If he’s cleared then, there’s probably another week or two before he’s facing live hitters–in a rehab game or not. From then, it’ll take four or five starts to build his arm strength back up to the length Mets fans want to see him go. Unfortunately four or five rehab starts will take him to the end of the Triple-A Syracuse season and basically to the end of the Mets’.
There’s always the chance the try the same thing they did with Carlos Carrasco, where the team sees him throw three or four innings in the minors, then extend him the rest of the way in the majors. But that hasn’t exactly worked out with Carrasco. He threw just four innings in his first two starts, and his third start lasted just an inning due to rain. (His third start wouldn’t have lasted longer than four innings in all likelihood as it took 37 pitches to get through the first three outs.)
So if you want to extend him fully, you’re extending him for the postseason. That plan only works if, well, you’re going to make the postseason, and there’s an argument to be had if the Mets are going to make the postseason at all if deGrom isn’t pitching down the stretch for the team.
So that’s why there’s always route two.
Use In Short Doses
Get him healthy, then use him in short bursts to start or in relief.
There’s a scenario where Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard return within a week of each other, and the Mets could line them up to pitch in the same game. Acting general manager Zack Scott has discussed Syndergaard returning in more of a reliever-type role, and perhaps they could do the same thing with deGrom for the final weeks of the season.
Give deGrom the first two or three innings of a game, then follow him up with Syndergaard for another two of three innings. Flip flop them. Have someone else start, then bring those two guys in for the last six innings. That’ll allow the rest of the rotation to take their normal turns. You could also jumble guys like Rich Hill and Taijuan Walker, who despite Saturday’s incredible outing has thrown nearly double the innings he had from 2018 to 2020, into that mix. Anything to get best value of the guys on hand. It’s a playoff race, so there’s no need to stick to the norms of having a guy who usually starts just start.
Unfortunately, the Mets don’t have the convenience of a first-place cushion in the NL East to get super creative with six- or seven-man rotations, so the creativity will have to come in maxing out usage for Jacob deGrom while also keeping in mind you don’t want to hurt his 2022 and beyond.
Shut It Down
Someone call Jon Taffer. Bring in the fire marshal. Get the host of the Baby Of The Year competition. Cut it short. Shut it down.
There’s always the option that the short-term reward may not be worth the long-term risk here.
A 33-year-old suffering five injuries–albeit most of them minor–in one season takes a toll on the body. The Mets’ plans for the next three years include deGrom at the top of the rotation. At the start of the year, when deGrom was striking out everyone under the sun, it left you wondering when he wouldn’t be this good. An injury-riddled season will make you wonder how much longer he can be this good.
It might be worth it to shut him down and look forward to 2022. The Mets’ odds to make the playoff in 2021 are down to under 20 percent, according to FanGraphs. (The return of deGrom plus a six- or seven-game win streak could obviously change that, too.) The team’s playoff odds will likely be that low in 2022 if deGrom has to miss this much time again.
Look at Chris Sale as he’s made his return for the Red Sox on Saturday. His 2019 season ended with elbow inflammation that just didn’t get better. He ramped up in 2020–starting and stopping cus of a bout with pneumonia–then felt the elbow soreness again. Turns out he needed Tommy John surgery and didn’t throw another pitch in the majors until two years after his last one. No two elbows are the same, but add in a dash of anxiety and you may want to tread as cautiously as possible with deGrom.
Conclusions
Everything here depends on the next MRI Jake will get around August 27.
If his elbow isn’t healing as fast as one would hope, there’s no other option than to shut it down–especially if by then, when the Mets will have just completed 13 straight games against the Giants and Dodgers, the team has fallen further out of first in the NL East.
But if deGrom gets cleared to throw come August 27, his best use to the team will be in any pitching capacity–not during the last weekend as a six-inning starter. As we’ve learned with the dozens of injuries and setbacks to Mets this season, you can have one plan for the next two weeks, then it gets thrown in a tizzy when a drove of bad news comes your way.
The best plan to utilize deGrom will have to come on a week-by-week basis.
If deGrom gets cleared to throw, but he’s not feeling great after a week or so, you might have to just shut him down and tell him to rest until his offseason throwing program starts. If he starts throwing again is feeling great, and he faces live batters without an issue, the team should probably have him throw innings against division rivals–even if it’s just one or two at a time–as soon as possible rather than the Palm Beach Cardinals and Lakeland Flying Tigers.
