Alex Rodriguez played his final big-league game last night for the New York Yankees. His legacy will always be marred with what-ifs… What if he never took PEDs? What if he stayed away from off the field scandals? What if Cameron Diaz never fed him popcorn at the Super Bowl? But one of these lesser talked about what-ifs stems from the New York Mets’ pursuit of the three-time MVP in 2000.
In the 2000 offseason, it looked very possible that Rodriguez could have been a Met. A-Rod, who grew up a Mets fan, dreamed of playing for the orange and blue in Shea Stadium. But a lofty list of Scott Boras demands prevented this from ever happening, as Mets brass were uninterested in providing all these extra amenities. A-Rod eventually signed a record setting ten-year, $252 million dollar contract with the Texas Rangers.
Had Rodriguez signed with the Mets, their franchise history would have likely looked far, far different than it does now. And based on A-Rod’s production, it could have looked far, far better. Particularly in what would have been his first season in Flushing in 2001.
That year, the Mets were coming off of the pennant-winning season that ended in a heartbreaking Subway Series loss. They eventually disappointed by falling far short of the playoffs with an 82-80 record. But had they signed Rodriguez, things could have been much, much different in subsequent years.
That year, he batted .318 for the Rangers with 52 home runs and 135 RBI. He would have led the Mets in all three categories that year, and set single-season franchise records in home runs and RBI. In fact, Rodriguez had more home runs than then-Mets shortstop Rey Ordonez had RBIs. Ordonez batted .247 with a .299 on-base percentage with three home runs and 44 RBI.
In terms of advanced analytics, the difference A-Rod would have made in 2001 is far more clear. While Ordonez posted a bWAR of -0.1, Rodriguez posted a bWAR of 8.3. Assuming this translated into eight actual wins, this would have given the Mets a final record of 90-72, which would have been the best mark in the NL East. This would have meant the end of Atlanta’s ten-year run as NL East champions.
The Mets would have been set to play the Astros in the playoffs, who the Braves swept in three games. They then would have faced off against the eventual World Series champion Diamondbacks in the NLCS.
The Mets would have then faced a repeat Subway Series with the Yankees had they won, assuming there’s no butterfly effect from A-Rod altering history, of course (see Marty McFly’s family picture). The Mets would have stood a far better chance with the best offensive catcher and shortstop in baseball history in their lineup, a one-two punch that could have potentially spurred a dynasty.
There are obviously a lot more variables to this “what if” situation. A-Rod could have ended up getting hurt, played like Jason Bay or taken a Bobby Bonilla-sized buyout. Or maybe he wouldn’t have. Maybe he saves Bobby Valentine‘s job and helps the team avoid the Art Howe years. Maybe Jose Reyes is used as a trade chip to acquire some other big-time player, since Rodriguez would have been their franchise shortstop. Maybe A-Rod and David Wright become the best left side of the infield in baseball history. Maybe none of that happens. But hey, it’s fun to imagine what a Piazza-A-Rod tandem could have done for the Mets.
