MLB Trade Rumors released their annual Top 50 Free Agents list, complete with projected deals and landing spots. The project that the Mets will sign shortstop Ian Desmond and outfielder Dexter Fowler. Here is their capsule for each followed by my commentary.
Ian Desmond – Mets. Five years, $80MM. Perhaps the game’s best shortstop from 2012-14, Desmond slumped to a .233/.290/.384 batting line in 2015. He still hit 19 home runs, and is easily the best available at his position. Three MLBTR writers feel the Mets will sign their longtime Nationals adversary, while the Padres and White Sox also got mentions. Desmond will come with a qualifying offer attached.
Thoughts – He just turned 30 so a five year deal puts the Mets on the hook until his age 34 season, that’s not bad. Here’s what I like about Desmond. It’s true he had a poor season offensively after three straight Silver Slugger seasons. His WAR over the last four seasons are 3.4, 3.6, 3.9 and 2,0. Normally, that would be enough to scare away any team when you’re talking about an $80 million deal, but a terrible first half obscured his overall numbers last season.
Desmond posted a .777 OPS with 12 of his 19 home runs coming in his last 260 at-bats of the season. He also stole eight bases and drove in 38 runs in that span. In short, throw away a horrific June and you’re talking about the same offensive player we saw from 2012-2014.
That said, if you’re looking for a defensive upgrade over Wilmer Flores at short, Desmond is not your man. His 27 errors were the most since his rookie season when he committed 34 in 2010. And as a matter of fact, Desmond had a worse fielding percentage and range factor than Flores in 2015, and there’s every chance Flores will continue to improve with the leather.
Dexter Fowler – Mets. Four years, $60MM. Fowler, 30 in March, joined the Cubs from the Astros in a January trade. He did a fine job as the Cubs’ center fielder, playing in a career-high 156 regular season games and quieting concerns about his 2014 defensive metrics. The switch-hitter posted his standard solid OBP and a career-best 17 home runs, so he’ll be turning down the Cubs’ qualifying offer in search of a multiyear deal. A return to the Cubs makes sense, but if they decide to move on, the Mets, Nationals, Angels, Marlins, and White Sox are some decent matches. Teams like the Mariners and Rangers may seek help in center field, but may be reluctant to forfeit their first-round draft pick.
Thoughts -This guy scares me. I like him as a player but his lefty/righty splits concern me and I’m thinking you could throw out that 17 home run power spike playing half his games at Citi Field. He batted .228 with a .726 OPS vs RHP and a .326 batting average and ,865 OPS vs LHP. So you couldn’t really work Lagares into some platoon work with him given their similar lefty/righty disparity. What the Mets need most is a center fielder who could mash right-handed pitching and get on base at a .360 to .370 clip against them.
Yes, his defense was better this year than his awful 2014, but he’s still well below average in center field. He had the best season of his career in his walk year and that’s always a red flag for me. I just don’t see a $15 million dollar a year player here. His typical season will be .260 with 20 doubles, nine homers and 14 stolen bases while downgrading your defense. I think we can get more bang for the buck elsewhere.
Final Thought – I’m a little surprised that MLBTR sees the Mets splurging on a $140 million shopping spree this offseason. Do they know something we don’t? Adding these two players at these projections takes Mets payroll from $92 million to $123 million in 2016 and over $140 million in 2017. Hmm…
