David Wright is expected to start quite a few games at third base this season, and with Asdrubal Cabrera and Neil Walker manning shortstop and second base respectively, Jose Reyes remains as the odd man out. Collins recently told the NY Post that Walker, Cabrera, and Granderson will be considered as leadoff options, so let’s take a close look at those guys and see if anyone else should be considered for the leadoff spot.
Curtis Granderson
Before the Mets brought back Jose Reyes, Curtis Granderson served admirably as leadoff hitter over the past few seasons. However, he profiles as a middle-of-the-order bat despite his high on base percentage. Terry Collins talked to Mike Puma of the NY Post and said about Granderson, “When we put him in the middle of the order last year, that is when he really got going, so that is something we might not want to change.”
As a leadoff hitter in 2016, Granderson hit .218/.317/.443 with 16 home runs and 25 RBIs in 81 games, but batting cleanup he hit .321/.440/.605 with six home runs and 18 RBIs in 23 games. He also batted second in the order in 22 games, slashing .235/.316/.365 with two home runs and seven RBIs. The #2 spot in the order is apparently Granderson’s favorite, as he told Mike Puma, “The spot I love the best is the No. 2 spot, which I haven’t done the most. It’s been the best spot for me throughout the course of my career.”
Asdrubal Cabrera
Cabrera has the next most experience out of the leadoff spot, as in 77 games he slashed .286/.321/.410 with four home runs and 34 RBIs. Because those at bats all came in the American League, the #9 hitter was a position player and not a pitcher which could have been part of the equation when he was chosen to bat leadoff due to the ability to drive in runs.
In this stage of his career, especially with his knee issues, I don’t see him as a great candidate as he has been very valuable hitting in the middle of the order. His career .329 on base percentage (.336 in 2016) is just not quite high enough to bat leadoff. He is, however, capable of swiping a bag when necessary as he averages 11 steals per 162 games and even with his knee issues stole five bags in 2016. He is not the best option for leadoff, but there are certainly worse options.
Neil Walker
Unlike Granderson, Neil Walker has virtually no experience batting leadoff. His career .339 on base percentage isn’t eye-popping, but then again, it isn’t horrible by any means. His OB% in 2016 was .347, however that is not the only quality of a leadoff hitter. Walker averages only five stolen bases and four triples per 162 games, while Reyes for example has averaged 49 stolen bases and 12 triples per 162 games in his career.
Walker understands the differences, telling Puma, “[Reyes] adds an element that we really don’t have in here, and that’s the speed threat. And he’s got ability to hit from both sides and drive the ball and get on base. That’s as valuable as it comes in the leadoff spot, and he did a great job.” There are worse options than Walker, as he will be productive, but I would rather have him batting lower in the order providing protection for the batter in front of him.
Juan Lagares
While Terry Collins hasn’t actually mentioned Juan Lagares as a lead-off option, he would be a good choice against left-handed starting pitching. When facing lefties, Terry will do everything he can to get both David Wright and Wilmer Flores into the lineup as they both crush lefties and he should do the same with Lagares for the same reason. In limited exposure batting leadoff, has has slashed .256/.303/.355 with 14 stolen bases in 72 games.
He has good speed and with more exposure to the base paths could develop into a solid base-stealer. It is also very important to have his glove out in center field as he provides superb defense. Against left-handed pitchers, Collins could sit Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, or Curtis Granderson to give them a day off. That would also increase the potency of the lineup as those men aren’t too effective against lefties.
David Wright
Though Collins hasn’t mentioned David Wright, he might actually make the most sense to bat leadoff. As he will usually be the reason Reyes is left out of the lineup, having Wright bat in the same spot would allow Terry Collins to keep the rest of the lineup in the same order. Being comfortable is a huge factor at the plate, and if everyone knew what spot in the order they’d be batting every day it could be beneficial.
Wright’s career on base percentage of .379 is phenomenal, much better than any other Met in this conversation, even Reyes (.338). While his back issues will curtail his power, it has nothing to do with his batting eye and should minimally effect his on base percentage. Over the past two seasons in which Wright played 75 games, Wright managed a .365 on base percentage, stealing five bases (which extends to 11 steals per 162 games). Having him hit in the middle of the order is not really necessary with other strong hitters such as Neil Walker, Yoenis Cespedes, Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda, and Asdrubal Cabrera.
