Understanding Joey Lucchesi’s Turnaround and Role Moving Forward

When the New York Mets acquired Joey Lucchesi as part of a three-team trade that sent Joe Musgrove to the San Diego Padres, it was unclear how big of a role the left-handed starter would play this season.

Lucchesi figured to be good starting pitching depth for the Mets. But when they signed Taijuan Walker at the end of the offseason, it appeared like his chances of sticking in the rotation would be very slim.

Going into spring training, Lucchesi and David Peterson were competing for the final spot of in the rotation, along with some other arms who were brought into camp like Jordan Yamamoto and Jerad Eickhoff.

Ultimately when Carlos Carrasco went down with a hamstring injury, the door was open for both Lucceshi and Peterson to make the Opening Day rotation and for better or worse, that has essentially been the duo the Mets have been using at the back-end of their rotation all year.

Peterson has been more of a fixture than Lucchesi, as he has started in every game he has pitched, while the Mets have played around with an opener when the former Padres starter has been schedule to pitch. Still, Lucchesi remains a big part of this Mets team thus far and he is at least showing some signs of improvement over the last few weeks.

Through his first six appearances this season, Lucchesi was not having much success no matter what role he was asked to fill. The 28-year-old pitched to a 9.19 ERA, with a 1.53 WHIP. Opposing batters were hitting .306 against him and his walk rate of 3.0 BB/9 was certainly not helping his cause either.

Yet over his last three starts, Lucchesi has suddenly started to flash the signs of being the effective starting pitcher he was back in 2018 and 2019 for the Padres.

The turnaround began on May 22nd, when Lucchesi took the mound against the Miami Marlins and faced the minimum across four innings pitched. He needed just 43 pitches (34 strikes) to get through those four scoreless frames, striking out eight Marlins along the way.

Many were surprised that Lucchesi was not asked to go back out to pitch the fifth inning in that game, but with three power-hitting right-handed batters in Adam Duvall, Brian Anderson and Garrett Cooper due up, Luis Rojas decided not to press his luck by sending him out for another inning.

Lucchesi has taken the ball twice since then and has yielded just one run over 7 2/3 innings pitched, on a solo home run off the bat of Manny Machado last Friday night. All told, Luccheshi has pitched to a 1.46 ERA, with a 0.81 WHIP over his last three starts. Opposing batters are hitting just .167 against him during that span.

If you are wondering what the big change has been that has allowed Lucceshi to turn things around so quickly, there is a pretty clear mechanical adjustment that has been made to the left-hander’s delivery.

Looking back to Lucchesi’s worst start of the season against the St. Louis Cardinals on May 3rd, when he gave up six runs off seven hits, you can see that he was throwing more over the top with a release point well over six-feet on his churve and at around six-feet with his sinker.

Fast-forward to his most recent start against the Padres, you can see Lucchesi releasing his pitches at more of a pronounced three-quarter arm slot, dropping his release point on both pitches.

                               

By changing his arm slot, Lucchesi has generated better control of his best pitch, his churve and is now able to keep the pitch at the bottom half of the strike zone. Earlier on this season, he was too often hanging those churves up in the zone, where batters could square the pitch up and drive it.

Here is a look at the pitch charts for Lucchesi in the two starts shown above against the Cardinals and then the Padres.

                             

As you can see from that second image, by adjusting his arm slot, Lucchesi’s churve is now living almost entirely at the bottom of the zone, with the pitch never coming in above belt-high for the batter.

Through his first six appearances this season, the whiff rate on Lucchesi’s churve was 35.5%. Over his last three starts, that number has climbed to 43.3%.

With these clear improvements, one may wonder if it is time to start stretching Lucchesi out to go deeper into games. Last Friday’s start against the Padres was the first time this season that he recorded an out in the fifth inning, but he was not allowed to finish the frame as he was pulled in favor of Jacob Barnes with two outs and two runners on.

The timing of the hook was no coincidence, as leadoff batter Tommy Pham was about to step into the box for the third time against Lucceshi. While it would be great to see him get that opportunity to close out the inning himself, it is understandable for the Mets to be cautious of asking too much from Lucchesi.

For his career, there has been a clear regression with each time a lineup gets the chance to see Lucchesi, as he is essentially a two-pitch pitcher. When facing a lineup the third time through, batters have hit .312/.395/.548, against Lucchesi across 234 career plate appearances.

This season, the Mets have not allowed Lucchesi to face any batters more than twice in a game, and there is no indication that they will adjust that strategy any time soon. Yet despite the lack of length that he provides, Lucchesi can still be a valuable fifth starter for this team moving forward.

The Mets have gotten great pitching from their bullpen all season, particularly from relievers pitching multiple innings. Robert Gsellman, Sean Reid-Foley and Tommy Hunter are just a few of the arms that have been tasked with covering multiple innings when Lucchesi pitches and all of them have found success in these spots.

Seth Lugo‘s return to the mix should only help the Mets manage these shorter starts from Lucchesi further, as he presents an outstanding option to bridge the gap to the later innings for New York in a close game.

Where the Mets can run into trouble with Lucchesi is if he were to follow up a bad performance from a starter like David Peterson.

Pitching Peterson and Lucchesi on back-to-back days spells trouble for the Mets bullpen, as they could quickly become overused if neither left-hander provides much length. This might be the reasoning behind the Mets current alignment of the rotation, as Lucchesi is scheduled to take the ball on Saturday, once again facing his former team.

With two off-days this week, Jacob deGrom is set to start Friday night’s game and Marcus Stroman would have been available to pitch on five day’s rest on Saturday. Instead, the plan is to go to Lucchesi first, which will sandwich him between the Mets top two starters.

Assuming the Mets stick with this alignment moving forward, this should help the bullpen manage Lucchesi’s starts much easier, as deGrom and Stroman will provide the length that allows them to rest before and after his starts.

Obviously the Mets rotation would be better if they had a healthy Carlos Carrasco and/or Noah Syndergaard in Lucchesi’s place. But for the time being, the Mets must make do with what they have available.

Lucchesi has shown that he can be very effective if used properly and a great four-inning pitcher is better than any alternative presently available on the roster.