Now that the Mets have struck out in their pursuit of Ben Zobrist, it is possible that they could now turn their attention to one of the premier outfielders on the market. Leading that group are Jason Heyward and Yoenis Cespedes.
If the Mets choose to go after one of those high-priced outfielders available in free agency, it will be important for them to have two characteristics. For one, they need to be well above average at the plate, with perhaps a little bit (if not a lot of) power. Second, they must be able to handle center field.
Keeping that criteria in mind, let’s take a look at how Cespedes and Heyward compare.
Heyward is a much better defender
Heyward is arguably the best defensive corner outfield in baseball. FanGraphs had Heyward at 16.4 runs above average this past season and 17.3 in 2014. His career UZR/150 is an outstanding 18.3 runs above average. Over the last five seasons, he’s tied with Juan Lagares for second among all position players in UZR/150. Defensive Runs Saved puts him at 24, 32, and 16 runs above average the last three seasons, compared to 11, 11, and zero for Cespedes. No matter how you slice it, he’s elite.
Cespedes was actually a Gold Glove finalist in the American League and has a cannon for an arm, but the numbers point to a rather inconsistent defender. His numbers are all over the place in fact, including one season where he was almost 15 runs below average in the field. With Michael Conforto cementing himself in left field and Granderson settling in at right field, it doesn’t seem likely Cespedes will take to center very well. In fact, over his career, Cespedes has been 17 runs below average according to Defensive Runs Saved, and has his defense prorating out to 17.6 runs below average, according to UZR/150.
Heyward has a good arm himself in addition to great range and instincts. It’s also important to note that, at least for the first few seasons, Heyward will be in his defensive prime. And if you are concerned about either playing center field, keep this in mind: Curtis Granderson has just two years left on his contract. Once that expires, right field opens up again. That’s Jason Heyward’s natural position, but not Cespedes’. Cespedes would have to remain in center for the duration of his contract unless Michael Conforto is moved.
Heyward will be the better defender, and it isn’t even close.
Over their careers, Heyward and Cespedes have been equally productive hitters
Mets fans will never forget the August and September that Yoenis Cespedes had this past season. In just 57 regular season games with the Mets, he smashed 17 home runs with a .287/.337/.604 line, including 14 doubles and four triples. While it’s hard to argue that a single baseball player can carry a team, he was as close to doing it as I’ve ever seen.
It will be hard for many Mets fans to accept the fact that what we saw wasn’t the real Cespedes.
Coming into this year, Cespedes was coming off two pretty lackluster seasons. In 2014, he hit .260/.301/.450, amounting to just a 109 wRC+. That’s Daniel Murphy type production. The season before was even worse, as Cespedes hit just .240/.294/.442 for a barely-above-average 102 wRC+. That’s approaching Michael Cuddyer territory.
Meanwhile, Heyward has had a fine offensive career, boosted by a sky-high On-Base-Percentage. This year, he slashed .293/.359/.439, a 121 wRC+ line. That’s around where he’s been his entire career. He won’t hit a ton of home runs (he’s hit more than 20 home runs just once), but as we know, players can be just as productive in different ways. Heck, even Cespedes wasn’t more than a 25 home run-type slugger until this year.
Cespedes and Heyward are both very different hitters. Cespedes does the flashy thing by hitting home runs, while Heyward “grinds out” at bats, and gets on base at a very high rate.
For their careers, their production levels, although gone about in very different ways, are just about the same. Cespedes owns a career 121 wRC+, just three percentage points above Heyward’s 118.
Some will argue that the Mets need a bona fide home run threat in the middle of their lineup, but the truth is if a team can put together a lineup full of Jason Heyward-types, they will win championships.
The Royals didn’t have anyone slug over .500 this season or hit 25 home runs. Keep that in mind.
Believe it or not, speedy players age better
The traditional belief is that players who rely on their legs and defense age and decline faster than power hitters. However, the data doesn’t back that up. The truth is that players like Heyward age as well as any player.
Take a look at this chart from Beyond the Box Score, measuring how certain types of players declined using wRAA:
Heyward is not the type of player who is likely to suddenly decline at 32 or 33, making him a smarter bet long-term. Cespedes’ production stems from his outstanding bat speed, which could go quicker.
Comparing the contracts
The one definite edge Cespedes has over Heyward in this comparison is the contract. Heyward will likely get an eight to ten year deal worth north of $180 million, while Cespedes is looking at possibly five years and around $120 million. However, there’s a reason Heyward is getting such a long deal: he’s 26 years old.
Heyward came up at 19, starting his service clock incredibly early and positioning him for a massive free agent deal. In comparison, Cespedes is 30 years old. For Heyward, an eight-year contract would take him to 33, while a five year pact with Cespedes will take him to 34. Luckily, in neither case are we talking about holding onto someone into their late 30s or early 40s.
The average annual value of each deal will be just about the same, somewhere between $20-25 million However, Cespedes gets the edge because his deal would simply be less risky. Even if Heyward is the type of player who will decline gracefully, you never know when a freak injury is going to strike. I’d rather have my team handcuffed with dead weight for three or four years instead of six or seven.
The Verdict: Heyward is the clear choice
Cespedes was amazing this summer. He energized a fanbase more than any player in a decade. However, he isn’t the right choice between him and Heyward, especially given the circumstances.
Cespedes would have to play a position he hasn’t been able to handle, significantly eating into whatever offensive value he provides. And at the plate, although they are different style hitters, they are both equally productive.
If Michael Conforto weren’t in the picture and Cespedes could play left field every day, perhaps this would be different. Perhaps Cespedes would be seen as a better value over Heyward. However, under the current circumstances, he doesn’t fit with this team.
Heyward is a great bet to be a 5-6 fWAR player for many years to come, which can’t be said about Cespedes, especially moving to a position he can’t really play. Coming into this year, Cespedes had never posted an fWAR greater than 3.3.
Heyward will cost more in total dollars and length of contract, but he’s also the type of player you can rely on for consistent, high-level production year in and year out. The same cannot be said for Yoenis Cespedes.
Yoenis, it was fun while it lasted, but it’s time for the Mets to go after Jason Heyward.
