Tylor Megill Proving to Be Much-Needed Surprise

Coming into this season, the New York Mets were expected to feature one of the deepest starting rotations in the major leagues, which would’ve been a drastic change from last season, although injuries have caused this team to rely on someone who probably wasn’t on anyone’s radar before 2021.

With starters like Jacob deGrom (forearm tightness), David Peterson (oblique strain), Noah Syndergaard (Tommy John surgery), Joey Lucchesi (UCL tear) and Carlos Carrasco (hamstring tear) all currently on the injured list, there are a few vacancies within the rotation just over a week away from the trade deadline and the pitching staff would definitely be in a far worse state if not for rookie Tylor Megill‘s sudden emergence.

Despite finishing the 2019 campaign at double-A Binghamton, Megill, who was selected in the eighth round of the 2018 MLB Draft, stood out at the club’s alternate training site in 2020 and that progression helped him excel across two levels in the minors earlier this season. After making just three starts at triple-A Syracuse, where he produced a 3.77 ERA and struck out 17 batters over 14 1/3 innings, the 25-year-old earned a well-deserved promotion to the majors.

Though there’s still some room for growth, the towering 6’ 7″ hurler has been exactly what the Mets have needed since making his MLB debut on Jun. 23, as he’s provided some much-needed length and a handful of quality outings over his first five starts.

Exceeding his expectations up to this point, Megill has compiled 24.0 innings over those five appearances, producing a 2.63 ERA, 2.05 xERA, 3.71 FIP, 3.87 xFIP, 1.21 WHIP, .220 OPP AVG and a 0.4 fWAR rating.

In the minor leagues, the right-hander didn’t have any issues creating high amounts of strikeouts, allowing him to register a strikeout rate of at least 30% at every level except for high-A St. Lucie. Now performing at the highest level of competition, his ability to transfer those strikeout totals over to the big leagues has been one of the biggest reasons he’s enjoyed so much success early on in his major league career.

While his strikeout rate in the majors hasn’t surpassed that 30% threshold just yet, Megill has still been able to induce a considerable amount of swings and misses, resulting in a 27.7% strikeout rate, 23.1% whiff rate, 24.0% chase rate and a 35.4% chase whiff rate. In addition, he’s also succeeded at attacking the zone early in counts and has kept runners off the bases by generating a 67.3% first-pitch strike rate and an 8.9% walk rate.

Proving to be a starter who isn’t solely reliant on strikeouts, the former top prospect has been fairly effective at keeping the ball on the ground and inducing weak contact, which is a skill he began to unlock at the higher levels of the minors. Despite allowing a season-high 11 hard-hit balls during his latest start, limiting hard contact and line drives have served as key parts of his gameplan on the mound.

Looking past his 41.3% hard-hit against, Megill hasn’t allowed opposing hitters to barrel up his pitches this season, as he’s only allowed two barrels over 63 batted ball events. As for his ability to create ground balls, the youngster has produced a 48.4% GB rate and a 12.9% LD rate – the second-best percentage of his professional career.

Coming up through the minors, the hard-throwing righty relied heavily on his mid-90s fastball, which can reach up to 97-98 mph. Utilizing that same approach in the majors, the talented hurler has thrown his heater over 50% of the time and has performed effectively with his primary offering so far, as it’s recorded a .273 AVG, .192 xAVG, .364 SLG and a .263 xSLG.

While there was plenty of hype surrounding his fastball, Megill has surprised a ton of experts with the development of his mid-80s slider, especially since it had previously been considered an unpolished weapon. Even though its usage only sits around 21%, the rookie’s primary breaking ball has kept batters off-balance and has induced a high percentage of swings and misses.

Making a solid impact in limited portions, the Arizona standout’s slider has posted a .125 AVG, .091 xAVG, .125 SLG, .114 xSLG, .156 wOBA, and a .136 xwOBA. Additionally, it’s also generated a 34.6% strikeout rate – highest among all of his pitches – 34.0% whiff rate, 22.2% chase rate, 58.3% chase whiff rate, 26.7% hard-hit rate against and an 85.3 mph average exit velocity.

Since Megill has only made five starts in the majors, his slider doesn’t qualify for any major league leaderboards, but if it did, his secondary offering would currently own the best xSLG, the third-best SLG and xAVG, and the fourth-best xwOBA among all pitchers who’ve compiled at least 50 plate appearances against their slider, according to BaseballSavant.com.

Digging deeper into his slider’s performance, it’s helped him dominate against right-handed batters and is a major reason why he hasn’t allowed a single run against righties this season.

For the most part, Megill has located his primary breaking ball down and away to right-handers, which has allowed him to effectively target the outside corner of the strike zone. Even though he’s occasionally left a few pitches hanging in the upper half of the zone, they’ve still been kept out of the middle of the plate, preventing hitters from creating significant damage against it.

Thanks to his superb location, Megill’s slider has created a 33.3% strikeout rate, 34.5% whiff rate, 30.0% in-zone whiff rate – highest among all of his pitches – 63.6% GB rate, 27.3% hard-hit rate and an 84.1 mph average exit velocity over 18 plate appearances against right-handers.

Following this impressive start to his MLB career, the Mets announced the California native would remain in the starting rotation moving forward, however, that doesn’t mean he’s a finished product. Being able to rely on two quality pitches is a great start, but in order to stay effective in the majors, he’ll need to continue developing his mid-80s changeup and high-70s curveball.

Once Megill reaches the point of his career where he can consistently utilize three or four offerings, which doesn’t seem too far away from now, he’ll likely be able to unlock his full potential and could become a mainstay on the pitching staff, potentially solidifying his spot at the back of the rotation.

But for now, the soon-to-be 28-year-old is focused on helping this team win in any way possible, and at this point, it seems his emergence might allow the front office to target one starter rather than two at this year’s trade deadline.