Yesterday, the Atlanta Braves announced the dismissal of their general manager, Frank Wren. Wren had been hired in 2007 after his predecessor and mentor, John Schuerholz, had been promoted to president of the Braves. This marks an end to Wren’s fifteen year career as a member of the Braves’ front office, of which he spent seven as the general manager. Also yesterday, there were reports from multiple sources, such as Mike Puma of the NY Post, Adam Rubin of ESPN New York, and Andy Martino of the Daily News, that the Mets have reached a three year extension with Sandy Alderson – which you can read more about in Joe D’s post here.
So, what are we as Mets fans to make of all this? An Atlanta Braves team that had gone 96-66 to win the N.L. East Division Title in 2013, and had a 94-68 record in 2012 to win an N.L. Wild Card, decided that the man that drafted a majority of their top young talent had to go. As part of the Atlanta front office before his position as general manager, Wren was involved in the 2007 draft that brought Jason Heyward in the first round, Freddie Freeman in the second, and would have brought Craig Kimbrel in the thirty-third. Kimbrel did not sign that season, but did so in the third round of the 2008 draft. Wren’s front office clearly had an eye for talent. They also picked Washington’s budding superstar Anthony Rendon in the 2008 draft, but he too failed to sign.
From 2009 to 2012, the Braves drafted Mike Minor, Andrelton Simmons, Evan Gattis and Alex Wood. These players have combined for 18.4 WAR since 2013. That’s an average of 2.3 WAR per season, per player. On the open market, that production would fetch around $10 – $12 million per season, per player. Even though Wren’s 2009 to 2012 drafts do not come close to those from 2007-2008 (3.58 WAR per season, per player between Heyward, Freeman and Kimbrel since 2013), his later drafts still produced cheap, quality talent at key positions.
These last few words should stand out for Mets fans under the Alderson regime. Alderson has made it a point to acquire young, team controlled, up-the-middle talent and right-handed power pitching through his drafts and trades. In 2011, Alderson drafted the then-unknown Brandon Nimmo. While Nimmo has since packed on muscle mass and may not be able to stick at center long-term, he was seen as a possible center field candidate at the time of the draft and has played mostly center field throughout his professional career.
In 2012, Alderson chose shortstop Gavin Cecchini in the first round of the MLB draft. The picks the Mets received for the loss of Jose Reyes netted middle infielder Matt Reynolds and catcher Kevin Plawecki. In the international market, Alderson chose to give out one of the largest international bonuses in Mets history to shortstop Amed Rosario. Regarding trades, Alderson acquired two right-handed power arms in Zack Wheeler and Noah Syndergaard, and of course, the Mets’ starting catcher, Travis D’Arnaud. Let’s not forget about right-handed pitcher Vic Black or Dilson Herrera, also a middle infield prospect.
Wren and Alderson have both emphasized the same kind of talent in their farm systems. Why then is a general manager whose teams have gone 190-134 in a recent two-year period out of work while another, whose teams have gone 148-176, is signing a three year extension? It’s because of bad contracts to underperforming players. Wren had signed B.J. Upton (-0.6 WAR in two seasons as a Brave), Dan Uggla (4.9 WAR in four seasons as a Brave), and Derek Lowe (7.0 WAR in four seasons as a Brave).
B.J. Upton is signed for $72 million over five years, and has produced a value of about -$4 million (yes, negative). Uggla was signed for five years and $62 million and before being released had produced a value of about $24 million. Derek Lowe earned $45 million over three years with Atlanta, but produced at a level of about only $35 million.
If Alderson is paying attention, and if he is held at all accountable by ownership, he should be made extremely wary by this canning in Atlanta. We already have two overpaid and underperforming players this season in David Wright and Curtis Granderson. Wright is due $20 million in 2014, but has produced at a value of only about $8 million. Granderson is due $13 million but has been worth about $6 million. That’s not to say that both of these players won’t bounce back, but the facts are the facts and they haven’t earned their money this season. They may not come close to the values of the rest of their contracts.
The news that Alderson and the Mets are looking at an additional three years of partnership, in light of the Wren firing, highlights the role Alderson plays in the current state of the Mets. Working or not, whether you agree with it or not, Alderson’s plan is here to stay until the Mets win a World Series or until Con-Edison cuts off the lights at Citi Field.
