The New York Mets are currently dealing with budget constraints, the exact figures we don’t know, but we do know that they are staying out of the big name free agent and trade market.
Therefore, the Mets need to get creative if they’re going to contend in 2018 and beyond with a roster that is currently has many needs.
One of the most obvious needs for the Mets is second base. After the trade of Neil Walker on August 12, the Mets second baseman had a 95 wRC+ the rest of the season. They also had a .109 ISO which ranked 27th in that time span and were a well below average group defensively.
The Mets currently have the group of Wilmer Flores, T.J. Rivera, Gavin Cecchini, Matt Reynolds and Luis Guillorme as second base options that are on the 40-man roster.
Flores (-7 DRS career) isn’t a second baseman defensively, neither is Rivera (-1 DRS) and he’s coming off Tommy John surgery. Cecchini looked passable at second base but was brutal with the bat last year in Triple-A (85 wRC+) and the majors (40 wRC+, SSS alert). Reynolds is nothing more than a utility player and his 40-man spot seems vulnerable. Guillorme is gold glove material at short and second though he has a career .328 slugging percentage in the minors.
The trade market is still strong for second baseman despite Ian Kinsler already being moved to the Los Angeles Angels but let’s focus on one player, Jason Kipnis. Now, I’m not going to dig deep into the merits of Kipnis as a worthwhile target, that has been done multiple times on the site here and here.
Kipnis no longer has a position with the Cleveland Indians given MVP candidate Jose Ramirez is now the everyday starter at second base. Ramirez, as well as Giovanny Urshela and Yandy Diaz at third base, pushed Kipnis to center field in the 2017 playoffs. The Indians also used top prospect Francisco Mejia at third base in the AFL.
Indians also have Bradley Zimmer, Lonnie Chisenhall, Michael Brantley, Abraham Almonte, Tyler Naquin, Greg Allen and Brandon Guyer as outfield depth. Moral of the story, the Indians could see the two-years, $30.5 million guaranteed (2020 option at $16.5M) left on the contract of Kipnis as an unnecessary expense.
The Indians have lost relievers Bryan Shaw and Joe Smith to free agency this offseason leaving a gaping hole in the middle part of their bullpen before Andrew Miller and Cody Allen. They’ve also shown zero interest in getting into the market for relievers on multi-year deals, enter AJ Ramos.
It was reported on Wednesday by Ken Rosenthal that the Mets could trade Ramos in an effort to improve at second base then go out and sign another high-end reliever.
Ramos, 31, was acquired by the Mets mid-season from the Miami Marlins in exchange for prospects Merandy Gonzalez and Ricardo Cespedes.
In 21 games for New York, the right-hander pitched to a 4.74 ERA, 4.47 FIP, 1.632 WHIP and had an 11.8 K/9 in 19.0 innings tossed.
The longtime Marlin, Ramos has a career 2.88 ERA, 3.31 FIP and 1.250 WHIP in six big league seasons (346.1 innings pitched).
MLB Trade Rumors projects Ramos will earn $9.2 million through arbitration this season before hitting the open market for next offseason. That number sounds a little high to be so let’s go with $9 million for the rest of the article.
Ramos gives the Indians a much needed reliever on a one-year deal and Kipnis would give the Mets the second baseman they’ve been looking for. I think the Metss would likely have to throw in a lower-level arm or two to make the deal work.
The swap of Ramos for Kipnis would only add approximately $4.5 million to the Mets 2018 payroll. It would also allow the Indians to get out from the remaining $17 million guaranteed ($14.5M in 2019 and $2.5 2020 buy-out) on Kipnis. The move makes sense for both teams in this regard.
Now for the second half of the deal for the Mets that has to happen for them to contend, getting another reliever. The Mets would then need to sign a back-end reliever and Addison Reed looks like a great fit.
Reed, 28, is expected to command a three on the open market and is coming off a season in which he pitched to the tune of a 2.84 ERA in 77 appearances between the Mets and Boston Red Sox.
The three-year, $27 million deal the Colorado Rockies gave to Bryan Shaw looks like a very comparable deal that Reed could be looking at. Earlier this offseason, it was reported that Sandy Alderson would be open to giving a reliever a three-year deal and it was reported they did to Shaw.
If Alderson was going to give someone else a three-year deal you have to think Reed would be that guy. Reed had a 2.09 ERA, 2.47 FIP, 1.01 WHIP and 6.50 SO/W in parts of three seasons with the Mets after Sandy traded minor league non-prospects Matt Koch and Miller Diaz for him in 2015.
One point thing I keep seeing when discussing this possibility is that why trade Ramos when they need bullpen help? That’s pretty easy to answer with two important notes. One being that swapping out Ramos for Reed is already an upgrade. Second thing is that you would have Reed for three years instead of Ramos for one, which is huge given that Jeurys Familia and Jerry Blevins are free agents following the 2018 season.
In conclusion, the Mets would be getting the upgrade they seek at second base in a deal that would only add $4.5 million in 2018 payroll then making their bullpen better for the next three seasons.
In an offseason that has been devoid of movement outside of signing reliever Anthony Swarzak (I like the deal), these moves would allow the Mets to improve two needs at a reasonable financial risk which is unfortunately a key component with the current state of the franchise.
