Top 5 Questions Facing Mets Heading Into 2023 Season

It’s World Series or bust for the 2023 Mets.

Owner Steve Cohen made that clear by signing Justin Verlander to replace Jacob deGrom, and it became more clear when Cohen made an effort to sign Carlos Correa. Fielding a rotation that runs five-deep of elder statesmen means you’re not looking at the long term, at least for the moment. It’s about now. Mets fans, reasonably, wonder if all the spending will be enough.

However, there are always going to be questions for any team. Though the Mets are listed with the third-highest World Series odds by several sportsbooks, a lot will need to go right for them to get there. In fact, a lot had to go right for them to win 101 games in 2022, even as much of it went wrong at the end to cause a disappointing first-round exit from the postseason.

What are the top five questions that need positive answers for the Mets to make a World Series run?

1. Can the Rotation Stay Healthy?

When a team’s rotation is headlined by two first-ballot Hall of Famers with a combined age that is barely lower than the current life expectancy in the United States, there are obviously going to be many questions about health. It’s not just Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer who will have to be monitored throughout the season, though.

It recently came out that Kodai Senga had questions on his team physical, which is why his contract is structured with both a conditional player opt-out after 2025 and several innings-based incentives. While this is not all that unusual for Japanese pitchers, who start throwing at a younger age and therefore traditionally have more wear on their arms than other pitchers of the same age, it means that Senga is already an injury risk. Couple that with the need for an adjustment to pitching every fifth day rather than once a week, and there’s a significant concern of a prolonged IL stint.

Jose Quintana and Carlos Carrasco are also on the wrong side of 30, and Carrasco has dealt with numerous injuries in recent years. He did not quite make it to the 170-inning threshold that would have guaranteed his team option for 2022, although the Mets did opt to pick it up.

Obviously, there is a risk for age-related regression, but the first thing the Mets are betting on is that these pitchers remain healthy. That is why the option of a six-man rotation or at least extended rest at different times is very much on the table according to general manager Billy Eppler. David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi, and possibly Elieser Hernandez may play key roles in keeping the team’s aging arms fresh for an October run.

2. Can the Hitters Maintain 2022 Production?

Several Mets players had stronger-than-average years in 2022, albeit in different ways.

Brandon Nimmo‘s actual statistics were somewhat below his career norms, particularly his on-base percentage. However, the fact that he played in 151 games last season was unusual, as it was only the second time in his career that he cleared 100 games played, let alone a full slate. Nimmo has dealt with injuries many times in the past. The Mets can be fairly sure they know what they’re getting from him as a hitter, but his health is always a concern.

Meanwhile, Jeff McNeil and Francisco Lindor rebounded from subpar 2021 seasons to become key cogs in the Mets’ 2022 lineup. For both, it was more of a return to career norms than a sudden breakout; McNeil hit well over .300 in his first three seasons prior to his 2021 season-long slump, and Lindor had been a highly productive hitter before the 2020 Covid-shortened season. Still, whenever a player has a strong season following a down one, there is always the concern that they will revert back to the unexplained slump from the season prior. Injuries are always a concern with McNeil, as well, due to his generally gimpy hamstrings and lay-it-all-on-the-line playing style.

Mark Canha and Starling Marte were also stronger-than-expected contributors. Canha’s numbers were not all that much higher than his career totals, but considering his age, the Mets could hardly have expected a .367 OBP and 128+ wRC+ from him. The same went for Marte’s .292 average and 136 wRC+. However, both players are at risk for regression and injury due to their age (34). Marte, in particular, is at risk of an IL stint to begin the season after undergoing core muscle surgery this offseason.

To top it all off, Daniel Vogelbach had the strongest and most consistent season of his career in a much larger role than he was accustomed to prior. Vogelbach’s .360 OBP, .793 OPS, and 128 wRC+ were all career highs.

That’s six of the nine primary starters in the Mets’ lineup (Vogelbach will see the lion’s share of the DH at-bats because most starters are right-handed). There’s an awful lot of risk for regression and injury. Even if you take out McNeil and Lindor and assume they will follow their career norms over an outlier season or two, the other four players are still question marks.

For all the issues the Mets had scoring runs at the end of the 2022 season, they were still fifth in the majors in that category over the course of the season. If they want to match or exceed that mark, they will need repeat performances from most if not all of these players.

3. Who Will Step Up?

In 2022, the Mets received a breakout performance from Edwin Diaz, who finally looked like the dominant closer they thought they had acquired in 2019. Diaz’s dominance allowed the Mets to go 89-0 when leading entering the ninth inning.

Besides Diaz, though, Adam Ottavino also delivered a tremendous year. Otto seems to be a one-year-on, one-year-off kind of guy; in 2022, it was the on year, as he pitched to a 2.06 ERA, 188 ERA+, 2.85 FIP, and 0.975 WHIP. 2.3 bWAR for a reliever is pretty impressive.

Who will be that guy in 2023? The Mets could use a bounce-back performance from one or more of Eduardo Escobar, Omar Narvaez, and (if he’s still on the roster) Darin Ruf. If not, they’ll need one of their young guys, most likely Brett Baty or Francisco Alvarez, to come up and produce to his potential almost immediately.

This Mets team does not have quite enough proven names to win it all without significant contributions from other players besides their big stars. They’ll need their depth and youth to play a sizable role.

4. How Will They Get to Otto + Diaz?

After the excellent 2022 season from Ottavino and Diaz, they are, presumably, the main eighth and ninth-inning relievers. Although Buck Showalter did sometimes bring in Otto earlier for high-leverage outs, he seems to prefer having more defined roles for his players.

David Robertson and Brooks Raley were brought in to make that bridge both deeper and less right-handed, but there is still some uncertainty in the bullpen. The Mets have been reportedly seeking another arm for months now, but other than claiming Sam Coonrod off waivers to replace Khalil Lee on the 40-man roster, no move has been forthcoming thus far. They seem content to roll with any combination of Megill, Lucchesi, Hernandez, Drew Smith, Stephen Nogosek, Bryce Montes de Oca, John Curtiss, Zach Greene, Stephen Ridings, and Jeff Brigham to fill out the remaining four bullpen spots.

The Mets need to hope that their bullpen is not a revolving door like it was in 2022. Although relief pitching is fickle, lacking that quality middle relief compared to the Braves was one of the biggest reasons that they lost out on the division last season. There are always going to be questions and issues in this area, but the team can’t be rolling with performances like those of 2022 Joely Rodriguez and Chasen Shreve and expect to succeed.

Hopefully, Showalter will have enough reliable depth to keep playing to win even when his team is down two or three runs in the fifth inning.

5. Will the Mets Be Able To Add At the Deadline?

Steve Cohen explained his thought process about other owners’ resentment in a candid interview earlier this week. However, the fact remains that many teams do not want to do business with him, whether due to jealousy or the perception that he makes them look bad to their fan bases.

Since the Mets did not add that big bat in free agency or pursue one of the remaining bullpen arms, there’s a good chance they’ll be looking for the same things at this season’s deadline as last year’s: ideally, a game-changing bat, but short of that, a player who can hit lefties and bullpen depth. Billy Eppler swung and missed at the 2022 trade deadline. Even if it was due to exorbitant asking prices, it still left the Mets just a bit short of the depth they needed to make a title run.

Can Eppler overcome that issue and not have to trade way too much for a Darin Ruf-level player?