Top 5 AL Cy Young Candidates for 2019

For the players, Spring Training is the time of year to get back into playing shape and get their reps in before the season starts. For management, it’s the time of year to decide who stays in the Bigs and who’s sent down to the minor leagues. For the fans, it’s the time of year when we all draft our free agent teams – minus the keepers, of course. For me, in this series of articles, Spring Training is the time of year where I make my predictions regarding the 2019 season.

This article will take a look at who I believe are the strongest candidates to win the 2019 American League Cy Young Award.

1. Chris Sale – Boston Red Sox

In 2010 and 2011, Chris Sale was a relief pitcher. When 2012 rolled around, the White Sox had made the decision to convert their effective reliever to a starting pitcher, and the rest is history. He finished 6th in Cy Young voting in 2012, which is the lowest he’s finished since. From 2013 to 2018, he finished fifth, third, fourth, fifth, second, and fourth. To put it plainly, he is really really good every single season.

He is only getting better, as 2018 was his best season by far. If not for an early-season injury that limited him to 27 starts, he would have finished far higher than fourth place in Cy Young voting. In those 27 starts, Sale went 12-4 with a 2.11 ERA, 1.98 FIP, and 0.861 WHIP, striking out 237 batters in 158 innings. He posted career bests in ERA, FIP, WHIP, H/9 (5.8), HR/9 (0.6), and K/9 (13.5).

Turning 30 years-old on March 30th, Chris Sale already holds two all-time records. Of all starting pitchers to throw at least 1000 innings ever, Sale has the highest career K/9 rate at 10.9, and the highest K/BB ratio at 5.31. He beat another hard-throwing lefty for the K/9 rate, beating Randy Johnson‘s 10.6 rate, and staying ahead of Corey Kluber‘s 5.14 mark for K/BB.

He is outstanding year-in and year-out and only got better last season. While he’s never taken home the award, his elite consistency earns him votes every season, and if I had to bet, I’d put my money on Sale in 2019.

2. Corey Kluber – Cleveland Indians

Since 2014, Corey Kluber has won the Cy Young award twice, finished third in voting twice, and finished ninth in voting once. While he doesn’t strike out quite as many batters as Chris Sale, he is just as effective, putting up numbers as consistent as any.

After earning 28 first place votes in 2017 to win the award, Kluber finished third in voting in 2018 as he went 20-7 with a 2.89 ERA, 3.12 FIP, 0.991 WHIP, 222 strikeouts, and just 34 walks in an AL-leading 215 innings. He also threw two complete games, one of which a shutout, making that 17 complete games and seven shutouts since 2014.

Not only has he struck out at least 220 batters every year since 2014, he has had the lowest walk rate among qualified starting pitchers American League each of the last two seasons, posting a 1.6 BB/9 rate in 2017 and an even better 1.4 BB/9 rate in 2019.

The Indians ace, who turns 33 years old in April, is showing no signs of slowing up, and should be a very strong competitor to win his third AL Cy Young Award in six years.

3. Gerrit Cole – Houston Astros

When Gerrit Cole was on the Pirates, he was a very good pitcher. He finished fourth in Cy Young voting in 2015, but 2013, ’14, and ’16 were all injury plagued, pitching no more than 138 innings in those seasons. In 2017, Cole went 12-12 with a 4.26 ERA in 33 starts, striking out 196 batters 203 innings. Then, he was traded to the Astros, and everything changed.

Once arriving in Houston, the Astros said that despite his elite velocity, Cole should utilize his breaking balls more. He subscribed to their advice, and saw instant results. After striking out 8.4 batters per nine innings from 2013-2017, Cole led all qualifying Major League starters with a 12.4 K/9 rate in 2018, striking out 273 batters in 200.1 innings. Overall, he went 15-5 with a 2.88 ERA, 2.70 FIP, and 1.033 WHIP.

While he walked more batters than ever before (2.9 BB/9), he set career bests in WHIP, H/9 (6.4), and K/9. At just 28 years old, there is no reason to think that his success can’t continue. Further, as he’s thrown 200 innings in consecutive seasons for the first time in his career, the 2011 #1 overall pick hopes his injury-plagued days are behind him as he heads to free agency after the 2019 season.

4. Blake Snell – Tampa Bay Rays

Before 2018, I had no idea who Blake Snell was. After 2018, we all knew his name, as he won the American League Cy Young Award, joining David Price (2012) as the only Tampa Bay Rays to win the award. Though he only narrowly edged out Justin Verlander, who earned 154 against Snell’s 169, his numbers were outstanding.

The 26-year-old lefty went 21-5 with a 1.89 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 0.974 WHIP, and 11.0 K/9, striking out 221 batters in 180.2 innings across 31 starts. Many pointed to his 2.95 FIP, which was tied for 5th best in the AL, as a red flag because FIP is generally accepted as a “more accurate ERA”. Despite that, his peripherals were strong — and winning 21 games doesn’t hurt.

Snell had a 2.81 ERA and 10.5 K/9 ratio across seven minor league seasons, so he has enjoyed success before. However, in 43 MLB starts between 2016 and ’17, he went 11-15 with a 3.81 ERA, 3.87 FIP, and 8.9 K/9 rate. If I didn’t think he would continue to pitch at a high level, he wouldn’t be on this list. However, he’s at #4 despite winning the award last year because of his thin track record.

5. Justin Verlander – Houston Astros

From 2007-2018, Justin Verlander threw less than 200 innings in a season once. He has a Rookie of the Year, an MVP, two Cy Youngs, seven All-Star appearances, and three World Series (one ring) under his belt. He has been pitching at a very high level for a very long time, and he’s not stopping any time soon — In fact, the 36-year-old is coming off one of his best seasons ever. Verlander missed winning his third Cy Young Award by just 15 points, two seasons after getting snubbed for the award as even when he got 14 first-place votes, the award went to Rick Porcello who earned only eight.

Last season, Verlander went 16-9 with a 2.52 ERA, 2.78 FIP, 0.902 WHIP, and 290 strikeouts in 214 innings. He led the American League with 34 starts and those 190 strikeouts, but he led all of the MLB with his 0.902 WHIP and outstanding 7.84 K/BB ratio (290 strikeouts against 37 walks). His 12.2 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 7.84 K/BB, 0.902 WHIP, and 2.78 FIP were all career highs for the righty flamethrower.

He is due to be a free agent after the 2019 season, so he certainly has a lot to prove this season. If he shows any sign of regression, he will make a lot less money than he’s probably worth. One thing’s for sure: You can count on Verlander to give you 200 above-quality innings, and as he’s done nine times in his career, earn Cy Young votes.

Honorable Mentions

• Carlos Carrasco – Since 2014, Carrasco has quietly been one of the more consistent starters in the game, going 68-43 with a 3.27 ERA and 3.01 FIP during that span, striking out 10.1 batters per nine innings. He is due to be a free agent after the 2019 season at the age of 32.
• Trevor Bauer – Bauer broke out in a big way in 2018, going 12-6 with a 2.21 ERA, 2.44 FIP, and 1.089 WHIP, striking out 221 batters in 175.1 innings. His FIP and 0.5 HR/9 rate paced the American League in 2018, and he’s due to hit free agency following the 2020 season.
• Charlie Morton – I am very surprised that Morton did not receive any Cy Young votes in 2018 after going 15-3 with a 3.13 ERA and 3.59 FIP, striking out 201 batters in 167 innings. He’s finally figured it out, so look for him to form a formidable two-headed monster in Tampa Bay with Blake Snell. Also, he went to my high school, so I’m always rooting for him.
• Nathan Eovaldi– A four-year, $68 million contract ain’t bad for a guy with a career 4.16 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 1.348 WHIP, and 6.8 K/9 rate, who also missed all of 2017 due to Tommy John surgery. It probably had something to do with his outstanding Postseason, during which he recorded a 1.61 ERA across 22.1 innings. He instantly became a Red Sox fan favorite, a team who’s counting on his success to continue — And why shouldn’t it? He’s got outstanding stuff.
• Jose Berrios – If you haven’t seen this guy pitch, which wouldn’t be a surprise considering he plays for the Twins, check out this video. Welcome back. He just made his first All-Star team, tossed a shutout, and struck out 200 batters at the age of 24. He’s got outstanding stuff, so don’t be surprised if he earns more than a few Cy Young votes this season.
• Luis Severino – Severino finished third in Cy Young voting in 2017 and ninth in 2018, so to not include him on this list would be silly. Over the past two seasons, he’s gone 33-14 with a 3.18 ERA and 3.01 FIP, but can be very inconsistent from start to start. If he’s able to nail that down, he could finish a lot higher than ninth in voting this season.
• Blake Treinen – Armed with a wipeout sinker that would make even Jeurys Familia sweat, Blake Treinen had a heck of a season closing games for the Athletics in 2018. He went 9-2 with a 0.78 ERA, 1.82 FIP, and 0.834 WHIP across 80.1 innings, striking out 100. In those 80.1 innings, Treinen allowed only two home runs — One to Justin Upton in April, and the other to Max Kepler in August.