Zack Wheeler is expected to leave the Mets in free agency this winter. That’s a huge blow to the Mets staff, but one that was expected. Wheeler is coming off back-to-back seasons with over 4 fWAR. He has been relatively healthy in both years as well having thrown 377.2 innings in 60 starts. He had an ERA of 3.65 over the last two years and had a FIP under 3.5 in each of those years.

There is no way the Mets are really going to replace Zack Wheeler without going out and getting Gerrit Cole. That’s not a likely scenario for a Mets team that is likely to see an increase in salary simply from arbitration. The Wilpons just don’t operate in a way that will see the team blow past the luxury tax. That’s a big part of the reason the team went after Marcus Stroman at the deadline. The hope is that the combination of Stroman, deGrom, Syndergaard, and Matz will be strong enough that they can be carried by a fifth starter type until one of David Peterson, Thomas Szupucki, or Kevin Smith is ready to step in.

Whether or not this plan is smart, or logical is not what’s up for debate here. It’s not what a major market team should be doing. The Mets should 100% be resigning Zack Wheeler and fortifying their five ace rotation. That is what they built this team around, and that’s what makes them so dangerous at the end of the season and in the playoffs. Going away from that to save money that they likely won’t spend on the bullpen or fixing the defense is not ideal. However, that’s what the Mets seem likely to do, so who is available who can step in and make a real impact at low cost?

Hyun-Jin Ryu

Ryu is about to hit MLB free agency for the first time. The lefty is likely to finish top three in Cy Young voting this year, but his price shouldn’t be that high. Ryu is going to be 33 next season, and free agency hasn’t been kind to players over 30 in recent years. That’s especially true for pitchers, just ask Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel.

Ryu is coming off the best season of his career with a 2.32 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 3.32 XFIP, and 4.8 FWAR. He dominated baseball not by striking people out and overpowering hitters. Rather, Ryu lived off of his low walk rate, just 1.18 BB/9, and his ability to both limit hard contact and force soft contact. Ryu’s 20.1% soft contact rate was seventh-best in baseball, and his 33.8% hard-hit rate was tied for 11th in baseball. Put all that together and it’s easy to see how Ryu kept the bases clear.

This isn’t a one-season aberration either. In 2018 Ryu posted similar, though slightly worse numbers, in all three categories. Ryu is a late-blooming lefty who looks primed for a huge second half of his career.

The only issue is his injury history and his lack of innings. Ryu has had injury issues since he came over from Korea. He saw time on the IL multiple times this year. Despite that, he threw more innings this year than in any season since his rookie year in 2013 with 182.2 innings pitched.

With his age and his injury history, Ryu is a gamble, and that’s why he’ll be more affordable than a pitcher with his numbers should be. With the Mets letting Wheeler walk they’re going to need to take a gamble to replace him, and there would be no more perfect replacement for him than Ryu. The Mets should be able to stomach a two or three-year deal at around $12-15 mil a year. If they trust analytics and their team doctors, remember the Mets didn’t have a single starter miss extended time due to injury this year, then they should dive headfirst into the market for Hyun-Jin Ryu.

Michael Pineda

The downside with Pineda is obvious. He has never been healthy. There is no reason to believe that he will be healthy for the first time in his age 31 season in 2020. That shouldn’t stop the Mets from making a move for him.

With so many potential back end starters likely to be close in AAA or AA to start next season they shouldn’t fear an injury to their fifth starter. This pitcher could be nothing more than a bridge to David Peterson who should make his debut at some point next season.

In the meantime, Pineda is going to do what he has always done. Throw strikes and limit home runs. That’s all he has ever needed to do, and that’s all he has to do next season. As a fifth starter, next year all the Mets need is a guy who isn’t going to cost them games every fifth day, and who won’t burn the bullpen. When he’s healthy Pineda can do that.

This past season Pineda averaged about 5.2 innings per start. The Mets would take a pitcher who averages about six innings a start. On top of that, he had a 4.01 ERA, 4.02 FIP, and 4.30 XFIP. Pineda has only had an ERA of 4.40 or higher once in his career. He’s only had a FIP over 4 twice, one of those was this year at 4.02.

Many would look at Pineda’s ERA while playing for the Yankees and say he can’t pitch in New York. However, his FIP in each of his four years with the Yankees was 2.71, 3.34, 3.80, and 4.66.

If the Mets are looking for an effective bridge to David Peterson on a short term deal Pineda is the way to go. He won’t replace what Wheeler brought to the table, but if the Mets idea is for Stroman to do that while they have a traditional fifth pitcher Pineda offers more than a Jason Vargas Esque pitcher could, likely with less commitment in money and years.

Wade Miley

Wade Miley has quietly been one of the most effective back-end of the rotation starters in baseball. After signing as a free agent midseason with the Brewers in 2018 Miley put together a 2.57 ERA, 3.59 FIP, and 4.30 XFIP in 80.2 innings. This season with the Astros Miley has a 3.98 ERA, 4.51 FIP, and 4.51 XFIP.

There is no secret to Miley’s game. He doesn’t strike batters out, he doesn’t avoid walks, he doesn’t limit hard hit, not does he endure soft contact. The one thing he does well is limit the home run ball, but to the extent that Ryu does. His home run numbers are similar to Pineda’s, so why is he effective all of a sudden?

Miley has mastered pitching to contact. He can get a hitter to hit the ball where he wants it when he wants it. It’s an unbelievable skill that works well with a good defensive team but doesn’t need on, for instance, the Brewers in 2018 had Travis Shaw at 2B and Jonathan Schoop at SS for a large portion of the second half. He managed to make that work.

The key to this is understanding positioning. It would take an analytically inclined manager who understands shifts well to maximize Miley’s ability. That’s why he’s found so much success with the Astros and Brewers.

Miley would be a gamble for the Mets. He could end up like Jason Vargas, or he could continue to excel. It all depends on how well the new coaching staff understands his game. It takes a special understanding of analytics to take advantage of Wade Miley. Will the Mets have a manager that can do that?

If yes than Miley is a better option than Pineda. For no other reason than he dealt with injury issues before. He can eat innings in a way that Pineda couldn’t. He would be a true fifth starter that should last the whole of 2019.

Again Miley isn’t going to replace Wheeler like Ryu could, but he would provide a real option at the majors. He would give the team a legitimate fifth starter that would force the team to throw away a game every fifth day. He should also come exceedingly cheap, he made just $4.5 mil for the Astros this year. He is likely to be one of the better value signings in baseball again this offseason. That is, if he’s signed by a team who understands how to use him.