
Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports
Major League Baseball’s hot stove is typically cold during the holidays. Except in San Diego, of course.
The Padres — fresh off their first postseason berth since 2006 — are officially doing everything possible to catch the Los Angeles Dodgers. The starting rotation, which took a hit right before the playoffs this past October, got a tremendous upgrade thanks to trading for Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. Since that wasn’t enough, San Diego also nabbed infielder Ha-Seong Kim for good measure.
It’s been a helluva week for San Diego and general manager A.J. Preller. We’ll soon see how this impacts the rest of the offseason around baseball, but when looking at #MetsTwitter, there are just way too many bad takes being shared. I will say, for every one tweet that makes me shake my head in disbelief, there are at least 10 in response to contradict it, so that’s comforting.
It’s easy to watch the Padres snatch up three players the Mets could’ve used and slightly panic. But, you know what? The sky isn’t falling.
The Padres Earned This
Could the Mets have swung a trade for Snell or Darvish? Well, sure. Would it have hurt the Mets’ farm system much more than the Padres? Uh, yea, absolutely. San Diego has spent years stockpiling elite prospects and has been at the top of baseball’s farm system rankings for a number of years now.
MLB.com ranked them third in the league this past September, while New York ranked 20th. Giving up multiple prospects would hurt an already-thin system (thanks, Brodie), and Sandy Alderson already said earlier this offseason the Mets would prioritize free agency over trades because of that. It doesn’t mean New York still won’t try to be opportunistic based on certain situations, but it’s not the main focus.
We know Steve Cohen agrees with this. And it’s a fact, not an excuse.
It’s A Marathon, Not A Sprint
It’s frustrating to know the Mets are flush with cash and not seeing a top free agent sign yet. New York hasn’t seriously hung out at the top of the market in recent years, though, so it may be hard to remember that MLB free agency has slowed to a snail’s pace. Furthermore, with the economic impact teams are claiming COVID has caused, it’s even slower. Like, barely-moving-kinda-slow:
# of the @mlbtraderumors Top 50 free agents to sign before Christmas (+ # of the Top 20):
2020: 9 (1)
2019: 25 (13)
2018: 20 (9)
2017: 18 (4)
2016: 27 (10)
2015: 24 (8)
2014: 30 (15)
2013: 31 (12)
2012: 36 (12)
2011: 31 (12)
2010: 31 (13)
2009: 21 (10)
2008: 14 (7)— Céspedes Family BBQ (@CespedesBBQ) December 26, 2020
Players and agents are still going to make aggressive asks before considering to compromise (like Trevor Bauer’s reported $36-40 million ask and George Springer asking for more than $150 million). When they’re sure nobody will meet the initial asking price, that’s when actual progress in negotiations actually take place.
Money is no longer an issue for the Mets, but why would they commit to an initial asking price just to say they’ve signed top free agent? Bidding against themselves would obviously be foolish and a terrible use of newfound resources. The luxury of having money is not spending because they can. It’s knowing that if they must overpay a smidge to acquire a player, it’d be no big deal.
If the calendar flips to February or March and all the top free agents have signed elsewhere, then there’s a reason to be annoyed. For now, let’s not jump to any conclusions before reading the whole story because the Mets aren’t the only ones who haven’t signed many (or any) top free agents yet. Nobody has.
This Is Where We See The Difference
I’ve seen way too many “These are the same old Mets” posts on the Twitter machine this week, so it’s important to keep perspective. MLB.com’s Mile Petriello gave us some by tweeting out a photo of current team fWAR projections for 2021.
Interesting to see the #Mets showing up as the first NL East team in this projection. #LGM https://t.co/zRVGW69BCC
— Matt Musico (@mmusico8) December 29, 2020
During the Wilpon regime, we’d see a picture like this and just knew major upgrades to the roster were done. The rest of the winter would be spent trying to find bandaid-type solutions with flawed players, hoping they’d either bounce back after a tough year or exceed preseason expectations. If that sounds familiar, it’s because that’s exactly what BVW’s front office did the last couple winters. They made some win-now moves, but never fully committed to finishing an offseason, and that showed on the field.
We know the new regime’s front office is working on guys like Springer while also showing interest in others at the top of the free-agent market. The difference between the Wilpons and Steve Cohen is what happens next. Instead of having to come to terms with an incomplete offseason, there’s legitimate hope (and expectation) that the most significant additions to the Mets’ roster are still to come.
But again, it’s about doing things thoughtfully. The goal is to not just be good in 2021. It’s to be competitive every single year. That happens by strategically investing in free agents and not stripping the farm system of its elite talent at every opportunity (anymore). Becoming an iconic franchise takes time, and the decisions made this offseason will be a direct impact of how quickly that actually can become a reality.





