The Z Files: Robles' Fateful Pitch To Trayce Thompson

Jacob deGrom settled in after allowing two runs on two doubles and a sacrifice fly during the first inning but the New York Mets eventually lost 3-2 on a walk-off home run by Trayce Thompson off Hansel Robles in the bottom of the ninth inning.

Hansel Robles Pitch Selection & Movement

Prior to Thompson’s home run, Robles was attacking the strike zone with two-seam fastballs at 96 mph and hard sliders at 87 mph, throwing 12 of his previous 14 pitches for strikes (outstanding 85.7% strike rate). Robles gave up the home run on a 1-2 count with a 96 mph belt-high fastball over the middle of home plate.

Robles should have thrown a 96 mph fastball on the inside corner, preferably not for a strike in on Thompson’s hands, to discomfort Thompson in the batter’s box. This would setup the slider catcher Kevin Plawecki originally called, low and on the outside corner from Thompson which Robles shook off.

Regardless of pitch selection or game plan, Robles home run pitch was simply a poorly located 96 mph fastball which ran from belt-high on the outside corner to belt-high over the middle of the plate.

One issue with Robles given his current arm slot and release point is gripping his fastball as a four-seam fastball forces his fastball to run like a two-seam fastball. Normally, more movement is positive. The issue is his fastball runs from left to right like a two-seam fastball but doesn’t sink or drop down in the zone like a two-seamer. This makes Robles’ fastball tougher to command and creates less room for error when he lacks fastball command.

Simply, if Robles was able to sink his fastball against Thompson, the location of the pitch would have been approximately knee-high resulting in soft contact off the end of Thompson’s bat.

I’m not sure changing Robles grip to a true two-seam fastball in the middle of the season is possible but this is something Robles should work on during bullpen sessions with pitching coach Dan Warthen. Over the course of the season, it would allow Robles ground ball rate to go up, which besides strikeouts per nine innings to walks per nine innings ratio, is the most important stat for a relief pitcher.

Jacob deGrom (ND) 7.0 IP, 2 R, 8 H, 4 SO, 0 BB

DeGrom continued attacking hitters amassing a 68.9% overall strike rate, keeping his fastball and off-speed pitches low in the strike zone. Additionally, he showed excellent command with his off-speed pitches which created thirteen of his twenty-one outs and accounted for zero of his eight base hits allowed.

Despite pitching low in the strike zone, some of his pitches, predominately his fastballs, are moving back over the middle third of home plate much like his last start against the San Diego Padres. DeGrom keeping his fastball on the corners of home plate during last season is the difference between last year’s Cy Young caliber dominance and this year’s all-star caliber success.

Juan Lagares Leading Off

Lagares had four strong at-bats, Lining-out in the first inning, battling back to a full 3-2 count in the second inning and two base hits later in the game. Great teams have great depth. Probability shows us one of the outfielders will eventually need a few consecutive games off or a 15-day DL stint making it great to see the Mets have competent backups.

Stat of the Night

Once again, Mets hitters threaten opposing pitchers all night but can’t get timely hits going 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position. The Mets are tied for last in MLB (30^th in MLB) in batting average with runners in scoring position at .211.

Since 2001, these are how the World Series champions finished the regular season in batting average with runners in scoring position: