In the land of baseball, the strength of pitching is well regarded, the effectiveness of speed and defense is also well documented and the power of hitting is revered. Yet there is one skill among them that is rarely spoken of and that is the value of flexibility.
Flexibility is the ability to minimize the most predictable yet also the least predictable factor in baseball, the factor of injuries. It is most predictable as they are practically guaranteed and each team will lose one or two key contributors for a significant portion of the season. But it is also the least predictable as there is no formula to determine which of your players will visit the DL.
The ability to shift around also provides options when players inevitably underperform and it allows a manager to adjust his lineup based on various factors (pitcher type, opposing bullpen, ballpark, schedule, etc).
To take a look at how prepared we are from a flexibility perspective, I want to review the current projected lineup for the Mets going into 2015.
- Juan Lagares – CF
- Daniel Murphy – 2B
- David Wright – 3B
- Lucas Duda – 1B
- Michael Cuddyer – LF
- Curtis Granderson – RF
- Travis d’Arnaud – C
- Wilmer Flores – SS
This is a well balanced lineup with three left-handed hitters and five right-handed hitters. So far so good. But how would a major injury to each of these players affect the positioning and the lineup? Let’s look at their replacements.
Lagares – Matt den Dekker or Kirk Nieuwenhuis will be inserted in center, but a major question would be who takes over the leadoff spot?
Murphy – Flores will probably shift to 2B and Ruben Tejada will be the everyday SS unless Matt Reynolds is tearing it up in Las Vegas. Your lineup also goes from three LHH to just two LHH. This is a very troubling thought.
Wright – Campbell, Murphy or Flores can play 3B and either Tejada can play SS or Herrera/Reynolds can be called up. Either Cuddyer, d’Arnaud or Flores can slot into the three hole. Great options here, I actually believe we can soften the potential loss of David Wright very well.
Duda – this may be the one player the Mets can ill afford to lose to injury. Cuddyer will likely take the bulk of the 1B playing time and den Dekker or Nieuwenhuis will be added to the OF. Everyone batting behind Duda moves up a slot. However, this injury will lead to Granderson being the only “power” left-handed bat in the lineup.
Cuddyer – Once again, Kirk or MDD takes over.
Granderson – Same scenario as Cuddyer.
D’Arnaud – Kevin Plawecki will be called up.
Flores – Ruben Tejada will take his place or Matt Reynolds may be called up.
Overall, the Mets have pretty good flexibility in filling out positions from an injury perspective. This is greatly helped out by Cuddyer’s ability to play 1B as well as the OF, albeit he is a poor defender at any position. It is also great to see that Campbell can play just about anywhere and not be a liability and that whoever makes the team between Kirk or MDD gives us a strong defender able to cover any of the OF positions.
What Can Change – Backup Shortstop
As it currently stands, having Flores being backed up by Tejada is not very logical. With a poor defensive combo up the middle already, I believe there will be many games that it makes sense to sit Flores when you face a tough RHP and the team you play has good baserunners and/or hits a lot of ground balls. You would ideally substitute him with a left-handed hitting shortstop who plays above average defense. Tejada doesn’t fit that description. And as noted earlier, if Murphy goes down, your internal options to take his place are Tejada/Herrera/Reynolds, making your lineup very righty dominant.
Didi Gregorius or Cliff Pennington would be excellent backups. I’d try to swing some Triple A arms like Cory Mazzoni and Logan Verrett for Gregorius and possibly consider a straight up deal for Rafael Montero or Vic Black. I’d also be willing to swap Parnell for Pennington or Gee for Pennington and a prospect. If there is no interest in any of these trades, middle infielder Munenori Kawasaki and Jonathan Herrera, a switch hitting defensive SS, are now free agents and should be available at a reasonable price.
To make room for the new SS, the Mets would have to move Tejada. I’d like to see them deal him to Minnesota who is in need of a backup or perhaps starting SS (depends how they move their players around) for Brian Duensing, a solid lefty reliever who may be non-tendered anyway. I believe a 1-for-1 swap would be very fair in this case.
What Won’t Change – Catcher & First Base
Anthony Recker is a solid backup catcher and appears to be a great teammate as well, but I believe Juan Centeno should’ve been our 2015 backup behind the plate. As an above average defender who bats lefty, Centeno would have complimented TDA perfectly. At the very least, they should have kept him in Triple A in the event that the injury prone d’Arnaud hits the DL again and Plawecki is not ready. At this point, it looks like we will move into the season without addressing these risks.
First base was a pleasant surprise for us in 2014. I think it’s safe to count on Duda to hit .250 and hit 25 home runs next season, but a good baseball team will account for all potential scenarios, including one where Duda must miss significant time. The acquisition of Cuddyer somewhat addressed this, giving Collins a righty complement to occasionally rest Duda against the Kershaws and Hamels of the league. It also provides a major league caliber player to step in for a longer period if necessary.
However, I am very disappointed that there didn’t even appear to be an attempt to acquire Scott Van Slyke, a much better defender than Cuddyer at 1B and in the OF. I would think Rafael Montero for Van Slyke straight up would have been a reasonable deal. Wouldn’t having Van Slyke and a 2015 1st rd pick + $22M be better than having Montero and Cuddyer?
Final Assessment
Year in and year out, it seems like the best teams in baseball are also the best at absorbing injuries and maximizing match-ups. To give a team this tactical advantage, a GM must look beyond the nine slots he sees on a baseball field and envision how all 13 or 14 of his position players can be used and cover for each other over a course of a long season. While there are some moves that I felt the Mets could have made and still can make, I still believe we have above average flexibility going into 2015.
