One of the great things about the weeks leading up to the trade deadline is the trade proposing. As futile as it might seem sometimes for Mets fans, imagining the possibilities of what could be can be really fun. However — and I’ve noticed this among Mets fans especially — fans sometimes are so desperate to make a change somewhere that they’ll overlook facts to argue for a particular target.
The cream at the crop of this year’s shortstop class is about as good as it gets at any position. Troy Tulowitzki has been not only far and away the best shortstop in baseball, but also one of the league’s five or ten best position players overall. Typically, we caveat offensive numbers from shortstops with the fact that they play that position, the weakest offensively besides pitcher. Tulowitzki, however, transcends that. His typical numbers would be fantastic at any position.
Past him, though the drop off is huge. Almost all the names the Mets have been linked to are either having terrible seasons or were overrated in the first place. Some names look appealing, but the reality is that the market at this position is extremely thin right now. Let’s take a look at some of the trade candidates.
Jean Segura
Fans will always think of Segura as a budding star because of his 2013 season. But the numbers show he is really just a crummy hitter with some speed.
His 2013 stats look appealing, especially for a shortstop. .294/.329/.423. That’s quite a year. But looking deeper, it was really only an eight-week stretch.
April and May: .354/.393/.550
June, July, August, and September: .261/.292/.354
Besides those two months, Segura has done nothing offensively in the major leagues. His 81 wRC+ is below even the league average for shortstops this year, which is 83. Last year, his wRC+ was just 67. Compare that to Ruben Tejada‘s 95 wRC+ this year and 88 wRC+ last year and Segura looks nothing like the offensive upgrade the Mets desperately need.
Jimmy Rollins
This one has been thrown around for a number of years, and still doesn’t make sense. Rollins is as far from the great player he once was as he’s ever been. His .204/.259/.324 line is not only terrible for a shortstop, it’s worse than players like Eric Campbell, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Dilson Herrera, and Juan Lagares.
Fangraphs estimates that Rollins has cost the Dodgers 17 runs on offense this season, the fifth-worst in baseball. Some might say that his defense would be an upgrade, but even his defensive numbers have tanked this season. Oh, and don’t forget the money. Pass.
Brad Miller
The Mariners have basically fallen out of contention and may look to sell off some of their assets, including Miller, who has been linked to the Mets for a while.
The nice thing about Miller is that he’s got some power. His .154 ISO is fourth among MLB shortstops and he has eight home runs, 13 doubles, and three triples to his name this season. The problem is he is basically another Wilmer Flores. While his .237/.312/.391 batting line actually amounts to a significantly better wRC+ (99) than Flores (86), Flores is also in a weird power slump right now, which most of us agree he will eventually emerge from.
Acquiring Miller is hardly a significant upgrade, if he’s one at all. Sizable upgrades at multiple positions are going to help, but this wouldn’t be sizable.
Asdrubal Cabrera
Cabrera has shown some power in the past. In 2011, he hit 25 homers with Cleveland and slugged .460. However, his power numbers have dropped almost every year since. Last season, he hit 14 home runs and posted a .146 ISO. However, his overall wRC+ was just 97. This year, his numbers have taken an even bigger dive. His current line is .223/.275/.352 and he has hit just five home runs.
Alexei Ramirez and Starlin Castro
Here are two guys who have been above average major league starters for a number of years (although less so with Castro). The problem? They are both having absolutely awful seasons. Remember how Jimmy Rollins cost the Dodgers the fifth most runs in baseball? Number one and two are Ramirez and Castro.
Ramirez, 33, is hitting just .224/.251/.297 on the season (45 wRC+) with 11 steals and just three home runs. Castro hasn’t been much better. He’s hitting ..239/.272/.310 with four steals and five home runs, amounting to a 56 wRC+.
While the odds of two consistently above average players suddenly and permanently transforming into two of the league’s worst are slim, these aren’t the types of players who we can say with certainty are going to step in and rake over the final eight to ten weeks of the season.
With a market like this, Sandy Alderson should look someplace other than shortstop to upgrade the offense. And frankly, even if that means moving Wilmer Flores back to shortstop, I’d take it.
Really, with David Wright probably not returning this season, it’s looking more like acquiring a third baseman and an outfielder makes the most sense. Who would’ve thought we’d be saying that at the start of spring training?
