There has been a lot of chatter since the 2013 season has come to an end, regarding which model the Mets should be following in order to build winning baseball.
Should they follow the Oakland Athletics model? How about the San Francisco Giants? Let’s try the Boston Red Sox…
The truth is there is no secret formula to building a baseball team. If there was, there is no way it would be able to be kept a secret the way Coca-Cola keeps their famous cola recipe a secret.
Major League Baseball is a copycat league. When one team has success, the other unsuccessful teams try to build their teams using the other teams’ models.
All businesses operate that way when you think about it. Harvard Business School is famous for its case study model, which uses case studies of some of the more successful and unsuccessful businesses to guide the business leaders of tomorrow. We learn from the success and failures of ourselves, but also from the successes and failures of others.
We can argue back and forth about what makes teams successful or not. One team can spend five times more than another team in player contracts, and have much less success, so what really drives success? As the Angels proved this year, it’s not always about having the best players in the lineup.
The secret is Timeliness.
Timeliness, in baseball, can be described as taking advantage of opportunities on the baseball field when they present themselves. That is the only thing that can determine the success or failure of a team. There is no model to follow.
The Oakland Athletics have been doing the same thing for years–some years they are really good, and others they aren’t so good. There is no crystal ball. There is nothing that a team can do to guarantee success.
I predicted the Mets would win 85 games in 2013 at the beginning of the year. I don’t think it was crazy to think it could have happened. They had solid pitching on paper, and when you have solid pitching all you need is opportunistic offense. Notice how I did not say the team needs good offense–opportunistic will do.
However, the Mets did not have opportunistic offense in 2013. In fact, they were ranked 23rd in the league while hitting with runners in scoring position–the top three teams were the Cardinals, Tigers, and Red Sox. Two of those teams are playing in the World Series this year. In fact, I went back to 2010, and there was a team featured in each seasons’ World Series that was in the top five in the league with regards to hitting with runners in scoring position.
To add to the poor hitting, the Mets were also ranked 24th in the league while pitching with opposing runners in scoring position this past season. When you add those two factors together, you can see why the Mets ended 2013 the way they did.
Here is a breakdown of how the Mets performed in 2013 with regards to hitting with RISP:
| AB | HR | RBI | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Lutz | 5 | 0 | 2 | .400 | .500 | .800 | 1.300 |
| Wilfredo Tovar | 4 | 0 | 2 | .500 | .600 | .500 | 1.100 |
| Juan Centeno | 2 | 0 | 1 | .500 | .500 | .500 | 1.000 |
| Andrew Brown | 42 | 2 | 19 | .333 | .391 | .548 | .939 |
| Collin Cowgill | 10 | 1 | 7 | .300 | .300 | .600 | .900 |
| John Buck | 97 | 5 | 46 | .299 | .381 | .495 | .875 |
| Marlon Byrd | 108 | 8 | 55 | .287 | .314 | .556 | .870 |
| Daniel Murphy | 141 | 3 | 60 | .305 | .340 | .447 | .787 |
| David Wright | 95 | 0 | 31 | .284 | .407 | .368 | .775 |
| Josh Satin | 56 | 0 | 14 | .268 | .391 | .357 | .748 |
| Jordany Valdespin | 27 | 2 | 14 | .185 | .290 | .444 | .735 |
| Ike Davis | 78 | 3 | 22 | .205 | .354 | .333 | .687 |
| Juan Lagares | 96 | 1 | 28 | .240 | .324 | .354 | .678 |
| Matt den Dekker | 13 | 0 | 5 | .308 | .357 | .308 | .665 |
| Omar Quintanilla | 69 | 0 | 19 | .232 | .368 | .275 | .643 |
| Eric Young | 76 | 0 | 24 | .250 | .301 | .342 | .643 |
| Wilmer Flores | 27 | 0 | 12 | .259 | .300 | .333 | .633 |
| Kirk Nieuwenhuis | 24 | 1 | 9 | .167 | .300 | .292 | .592 |
| Ruben Tejada | 42 | 0 | 9 | .262 | .295 | .262 | .557 |
| Lucas Duda | 76 | 1 | 17 | .145 | .343 | .197 | .541 |
| Mike Baxter | 20 | 0 | 4 | .150 | .357 | .150 | .507 |
| Anthony Recker | 25 | 0 | 8 | .160 | .281 | .200 | .481 |
| Rick Ankiel | 13 | 0 | 2 | .154 | .214 | .231 | .445 |
| Justin Turner | 44 | 0 | 13 | .182 | .229 | .205 | .434 |
| Travis d’Arnaud | 20 | 0 | 3 | .100 | .240 | .150 | .390 |
| Team Total | 1300 | 27 | 441 | .242 | .329 | .357 | .686 |
And here is a breakdown showing the Mets Clutch Stats from 2013 (RISP with 2 outs):
| AB | HR | RBI | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Murphy | 65 | 2 | 30 | .354 | .425 | .538 | .963 |
| Andrew Brown | 23 | 0 | 8 | .348 | .375 | .478 | .853 |
| Eric Young | 34 | 0 | 12 | .294 | .385 | .412 | .796 |
| John Buck | 50 | 2 | 18 | .260 | .362 | .420 | .782 |
| Juan Lagares | 48 | 1 | 16 | .250 | .357 | .417 | .774 |
| David Wright | 40 | 0 | 10 | .250 | .412 | .350 | .762 |
| Marlon Byrd | 53 | 2 | 18 | .264 | .339 | .396 | .735 |
| Wilmer Flores | 16 | 0 | 8 | .313 | .353 | .375 | .728 |
| Josh Satin | 24 | 0 | 6 | .250 | .357 | .292 | .649 |
| Omar Quintanilla | 36 | 0 | 9 | .167 | .388 | .250 | .638 |
| Anthony Recker | 12 | 0 | 3 | .167 | .333 | .250 | .583 |
| Matt den Dekker | 7 | 0 | 2 | .286 | .286 | .286 | .571 |
| Lucas Duda | 40 | 1 | 8 | .125 | .327 | .225 | .552 |
| Zach Lutz | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .500 | .000 | .500 |
| Ruben Tejada | 21 | 0 | 5 | .190 | .261 | .190 | .451 |
| Ike Davis | 44 | 0 | 7 | .159 | .288 | .159 | .448 |
| Justin Turner | 26 | 0 | 6 | .154 | .214 | .192 | .407 |
| Kirk Nieuwenhuis | 12 | 0 | 2 | .083 | .267 | .083 | .350 |
| Rick Ankiel | 7 | 0 | 1 | .143 | .143 | .143 | .286 |
| Travis d’Arnaud | 13 | 0 | 1 | .077 | .200 | .077 | .277 |
| Mike Baxter | 11 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .267 | .000 | .267 |
| Wilfredo Tovar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | |||
| Team Total | 657 | 10 | 190 | .222 | .330 | .321 | .651 |
As you can see from the charts, the most clutch player the Mets had in 2013 was Daniel Murphy. I know there has been trade talk surrounding Murphy in the fan base, but he would definitley be one of the players I would be hanging on to in 2014 especially after seeing he was also the best Mets hitter with RISP in 2013. The other players that hit extremely well with RISP and in the clutch were Marlon Byrd and John Buck. Byrd would be a player that the Mets should definitely consider bringing back in 2014.
One player that people are down about offensively is Matt den Dekker, but in a small sample, he has shown to be very effective while hitting with RISP. He hit .305 with five RBI in just 13 at bats in 2013 with RISP. He showed flashes of this ability in Spring Training last season, and it was one of the main reasons why I was lobbying for him to join the team out of camp before a broken wrist dashed that idea. His clutch hitting, coupled with his solid defense, could land him a starting job in 2014.
If there is one specific thing the Mets should look at moving forward, it is adding additional players who have had success while hitting with runners in scoring position, and pitchers who have success in pitching in similar situations…timely hitting and pitching is the key to success.
If there is a secret formula to building teams, it’s really not a secret…it’s all about having clutch players, not necessarily the best players.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gPbCgfEDYxs
