If we were tasked with picking just one aspect of the New York Mets’ season that’s been most frustrating in 2020, what would it be?
There are a number of things to choose from, but without a doubt, I feel like nine out of every 10 people will mention the team’s eye-opening futility with runners in scoring position. Whenever it seems like New York is gaining momentum, the inability to drive runners in during key situations just grinds everything to a full stop.
Tuesday night’s doubleheader against the Miami Marlins was a perfect example. New York sidestepped any catastrophic results from the positive COVID tests that appeared last week and got to ease back into its schedule at home against Miami for four games.
You know, the team they had just beaten three straight times in South Beach.
Since I was excited to get Mets baseball back, I made the mistake of thinking, “Well, if they sweep, they’ll be back at .500. That would be cool.” Naturally, the Mets not only got swept, but they were swept in the worst way possible — by getting shutout twice, leaving a total of 19 runners on base and going a combined 0-for-15 with runners in scoring position.
It’s gotten to the point where I’m almost impressed with how little success they’re having in this department. Hitting a baseball is hard, but seemingly not having any luck in the process is astounding.
One of The Worst
Prior to Wednesday’s game at Citi Field against the Marlins, New York easily ranked among baseball’s worst in just about anything related to producing with runners in scoring position.
The team’s 69 wRC+ in this situation, although it’s very nice, is the league’s second-worst mark. Only the Texas Rangers are worse, with a 68 wRC+ heading into Wednesday’s action. Meanwhile, New York’s .604 OPS with RISP is easily the worst in baseball. The next-closest team is once again the Rangers, with a .640 mark.
New York being this ineffective for a specific situation is bad enough. What makes it worse is they’ve had plenty of opportunities to do damage. What’s frustrating, though, is they appear to be a productive offense by a handful of other general metrics.
Not only is their team .355 OPS the best in baseball through Tuesday’s action, but their collective 120 wRC+ was also among the league’s top five. Yet, the 123 runs they’ve scored ranked in the lower third of MLB’s 30 clubs.
This Just Doesn’t Make Sense
That’s the frustrating part. Now let’s get to the confusing part. In looking around and gathering data for this article, I was curious as to how the Mets offense has performed with runners on base.
Entering Wednesday, their OPS stood at .754 and their wRC+ was 109. Neither were better than being middle of the pack within the context of the league, but they’re still head-and-shoulders better than the RISP fiasco.
I then wondered if the Mets had produced so differently in adjacent situations in recent memory. Going back to 2010, you’ll see that what’s going in 2020 is an outlier.
Generally speaking, one situation followed the other. If New York produced at a below-average level with men on base, they performed in a similar fashion with men in scoring position, and vice versa.
There are a handful of Mets hitters doing well with runners in scoring position — I mean, some have to be — but the majority are not. Entering Wednesday, Michael Conforto (85), Pete Alonso (70), Amed Rosario (22), Jeff McNeil (10), and Wilson Ramos (-32) all had a wRC+ below 90 when hitting in this situation.
Something’a Gotta Give
Even with the Mets’ inconsistent play, they still have a very real shot at making the expanded playoffs this October. All it takes is one sustained hot streak to completely change the squad’s immediate outlook. Despite still being under .500, general manager Brodie Van Wagenen is reportedly expected to be active over the next few days leading up to the trade deadline (he says while holding his breath).
It doesn’t matter if New York can back its way into the postseason, if these problems persist into that portion of the year, the Mets won’t be there for long before getting booted to watch the rest of the playoffs from home.
Everything gets amplified in the postseason, and things such as legitimate scoring chances don’t come around nearly often as they do during the regular season. With that in mind, it’s imperative to take advantage of those limited opportunities. It’s not that the Mets need to surge themselves all the way up to the top of the league in this situation — literally any kind of production would be better than what’s been happening currently.
The differences between an average team, a good team, and a great team isn’t astronomically big. It’s a matter of doing the small things right and coming through in big spots. New York seemingly has the talent on paper to get this done, and with almost the exact same crew from last year, they were much better with RISP.
So, something’s gotta give. Either we watch the Mets finally break out and produce more consistently when the situation arises as we head toward October, or they run the chance of watching the playoffs from the couch yet again.
