The more you look at the Mets’ probable playoff rotation, the more likely it seems that they will be able to make a deep run in October.
Dave Cameron of FanGraphs recently wrote a piece talking about how dangerous the Mets are looking right now, pointing out the incredible rotation, above-average offense, and bullpen that isn’t as bad as people think. However, it’s the pitching statistics Cameron pointed out that showed just how unique and special the four-man staff has the potential to be.
Take this last four-game series against Cincinnati, in which Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, and Steven Matz all pitched, for example. Combined, those four tossed 26 innings over the four games. During those 26 innings, they racked up 36 strikeouts and didn’t walk a single batter. In addition, they allowed only a single home run. Their combined ERA was 2.77, but their combined FIP was a minuscule 1.03.
Sustainable? Of course not. Just by chance, they are going to allow more home runs and based on the fact that none of them are named Bartolo Colon, they will walk batters as well. But this just goes to show you how overpowering these guys can be.
The two characteristics that all of these guys seem to share are likely what allows them to be so dominant: velocity and high strike rates. According to Cameron, the four averaged over 96 miles per hour on their fastballs against the Reds, which is just astounding. Couple that with the fact that over 53 percent of pitches they threw were in the strike zone, which is well above-average. All of them are near the top of the league in terms of velocity, and all four have no problem attacking hitters with pitches in the strike zone. (It’s like giving actual quality pitches to Colon!)
Overall, these four pitchers have a 76 ERA- (or a 124 ERA+), a 79 FIP-, and an 80 xFIP-, which is astounding. As Cameron points out, that puts the four, combined, at the same level as Max Scherzer this year. The only rotations in recent memory (and granted, these are five-man staffs, so it’s probably a bit more impressive), are the 2011 Phillies and the 90s Braves. That’s good company.
When you look at these stats, it’s easy to see why Sandy Alderson and the rest of the organization were so patient with their young pitching, and so hesitant to give any of it away. It’s also easy to see why Todd Frazier dubbed the Mets “the team to beat.”
