Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

New York Mets starting pitcher Marcus Stroman didn’t get a win on Tuesday against the St. Louis Cardinals, but he sure as heck deserved one. That’s been the theme of this season for the 30-year-old right-hander.

Stroman collected his 16th quality start of the year (out of 31 opportunities), as he allowed just two runs on four hits, one walk, and eight strikeouts in six innings. It was also the 23rd time he’s allowed two runs or fewer in a start, which has him rubbing elbows with some of the game’s best hurlers:

With Jacob deGrom sidelined for the majority of the summer, Stroman has stepped up as the squad’s most dependable starter. He passed the 30-start plateau for the fourth time in his career, which has led to 169 innings pitched, a 2.88 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 3.7 fWAR. Considering he didn’t pitch last year after opting out due to COVID-19, it’s impressive to not only see him stay healthy enough to rack up this amount of work, but also remain effective while doing it.

Using What He’s Got

Last winter, I talked about how valuable it is for a pitcher like Stroman to be constantly evolving his game to remain successful and keep the opposition on its toes. This is crucial for Stro because of how he goes about the business of getting hitters out. Although he’s currently on pace to set a new personal best for strikeout rate with a 22.0% clip, he doesn’t typically generate an above-average number of whiffs (the league average for starters in 2021 was 22.7% entering Wednesday). That’s generally happened because, unlike deGrom, he doesn’t pump a triple-digit heater into the strike zone constantly — Stroman’s average fastball velocity this year has settled in at 92.0 mph.

Controlling the quality of contact is a crucial component of his success. While it’s a number that’s significantly lower than it was a couple of years ago, Stroman is among the select few qualified hurlers who have induced ground balls at a rate higher than 50.0% (50.6%, to be exact). In a day and age when launch angle reigns supreme, this is no small feat.

The proof is in the pudding for those who may think there’s any amount of luck involved. Advanced ERA statistics like SIERA (3.90) and xFIP (3.52), while higher than his actual ERA, are currently the lowest they’ve been since 2017 and 2016, respectively.

The Constantly Evolving Pitch Mix

When I talked about the value of evolving for Stro back in December, it was based on a simple Twitter interaction. Here it is again:

This sent me down the rabbit hole of looking at Stro’s yearly pitch mix progression, only to find out he’s indeed been constantly changing to find advantages. As one might imagine, he’s doing it again in 2021. Check out how the right-hander’s pitch usage has changed since his rookie year, and what’s been different during this current campaign (info via FanGraphs):

This may be the nerd in me coming out, but it’s legitimately fascinating to look at this progression and see so many twists and turns without any real pattern happening. But even with all these changes, he’s found a way to execute better than ever. Here’s a look at the strikeout rate and opponent wRC+ for each pitch he’s thrown at least 25 times so far this season:

If these numbers hold down the stretch, it would be the first time just one of Stroman’s offerings produced a wRC+ over 100…and the current 112 mark for his sinker would be a career-best effort. So it’s not just the pitch mix that’s been constantly changing, but the execution of said pitches has also been top-notch.

Looking Ahead

With deGrom on the sidelines, Stroman has taken his place in not getting the kind of run support he deserves. I mean, heck, he’s got one of the lowest starter ERAs in baseball but is just one of two hurlers in the top 20 with a losing record. We didn’t need another reason to show why pitcher wins don’t really matter, but there it is.

What’s interesting is this tough luck isn’t necessarily new. The 2021 campaign is the fifth time Stroman has produced at least 3.0 fWAR in a single season, yet he’s enjoyed a personal winning record just twice during these performances. Either way, that doesn’t diminish the type of contributions he’s made to New York this year when someone needed to step up and steer the ship of the starting rotation.

Stroman has registered the second-highest single-season fWAR of his career, and if he continues to finish strong, a new high-water mark is certainly in the cards. Regardless of that, 2019 (3.9 fWAR) and 2021 (3.7) have been the most valuable back-to-back seasons of his career, and the fourth time in the last five seasons he’s posted at least 3.3 fWAR.

He bet on himself by taking the qualifying offer and he’s made the most of his opportunity. Whether it be impending contract status or injuries, there’s some uncertainty for the Mets’ rotation as we look ahead to 2022. Keeping the constantly evolving Stroman in Queens for the foreseeable future would help stabilize this area of the rotation.