I want to start this article off by saying that I am not in favor of the New York Mets trading for J.T. Realmuto if it means giving up part of their young core. Especially with Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Ramos still available on the free agent market, it would be foolish to give up Major League assets to acquire a catcher when there are other, just as good if not better options available. If you want to read a detailed analysis about why the Mets shouldn’t trade for Realmuto, check out John Edwards’ fantastic article from Thursday.
However, I’ve been thinking about it a lot lately, and I have come up with a case that including Amed Rosario as a centerpiece in a Realmuto trade would actually not be such a horrible idea.
The three big names that have been thrown around in the Realmuto trade rumors are Rosario, Brandon Nimmo, and Michael Conforto. As was reported by MMO on Tuesday, the Marlins wanted the Mets to start with Rosario or Conforto, and the Mets refused, but it was also said that the Mets may be willing to part with Nimmo and a minor piece to acquire Realmuto. Apparently, the Marlins are not high on Nimmo at all, as this proposal was not satisfying their desires.
However, despite previous reports, Rosario’s name has not been completely eliminated from these discussions. As Dan Federico of Bleacher Report reported on Friday, Rosario is “definitely on the table” for Realmuto and would be the headliner of that potential trade.
This has angered and upset a lot of Mets fans, especially prospect aficionados who have loved Rosario for years. And rightfully so. After all, Rosario is still just 23-years-old and looked better in the second half of last year.
But hear me out. While Rosario is still young and has plenty of potential, he has not been very good so far in his brief Major League career. This is an objective fact. Both offensively and defensively, Rosario has underwhelmed, especially considering that many scouts declared him the top prospect in baseball.
Rosario’s 2018 production was very similar to that of free agent shortstops Freddy Galvis and Jose Iglesias. In fact, you could make the case that Rosario was slightly worse than these two, but it was close.
Consider this scenario, Mets fans: Imagine that Rosario is still on the team, and the Mets found a way to acquire Realmuto without giving up any Major League assets. Considering that the Mets have an upgrade at catcher in this hypothetical scenario, would you be okay with Rosario essentially repeating his 2018 season? Would you be content with that production?
If the Mets were to trade Rosario for Realmuto, they could sign Galvis or Iglesias on a one-year contract as a stopgap until top prospect Andres Gimenez is ready. Gimenez, 20, is very polished and mature for his age but has still not seen a plate appearance in Triple-A. He’s not ready to be an everyday shortstop on a contending team, but it is not inconceivable to potentially see him with the Mets at some point in 2019.
Obviously, neither Galvis nor Iglesias offer nearly the same amount of upside that Rosario offers. They are what they are. Slightly below average hitters who don’t strike out much, don’t walk much, and don’t hit for much power while playing good but not great defense at short. Personally, if I had to choose between the two I’d pick Iglesias because his OBP is a little higher and his defense is a little better, but there really isn’t a significant difference between the two players.
I know, parting ways with Rosario would be hard. I completely understand that. And in a few years, Rosario might be a perennial MVP candidate leading the Marlins to World Series victories, and it would feel awful to know that you gave up all that just for a bit of an upgrade at catcher.
But in the short term, this could be a move that improves the 2019 team. Realmuto would provide an upgrade at the catcher position, as he’s coming off a 2018 season in which he posted a career-high 4.8 fWAR and 126 wRC+. Kevin Plawecki would provide a very solid backup option. And Galvis or Iglesias would fill in at shortstop, and would provide very similar production to what Rosario provided in 2018.
And who knows, maybe at some point during the season Gimenez gets a call-up and gets a shot at being the everyday shortstop. If Gimenez proves himself, the Mets can simply say goodbye to Galvis or Iglesias. For what it’s worth, Steamer projects Gimenez to hit .233/.282/.334 for a 72 wRC+ if he were to play in the Majors right now. This is slightly worse than Rosario’s production, but not by a whole lot.
If you’re doubting that Galvis or Iglesias would be a sufficient replacement for 2018 Rosario, just take a look at the numbers. Rosario hit .256/.295/.381 this year, good for an 85 wRC+. His defensive metrics did not look good, as he had -16 DRS and -5.2 UZR. Overall, he finished the season with 1.5 fWAR, which is slightly below average for a Major League starter.
Galvis also had an 85 wRC+ in 2018, same as Rosario. His defense was a little better, with 7 DRS and -4.4 UZR. A difference between him and Rosario was baserunning, where Rosario posted a 5.0 BsR versus Galvis’s 0.1. Galvis overall was worth 1.2 fWAR, similar to Rosario’s 1.5. Galvis’s numbers were pretty much in line with what he’s been doing for his entire career, although 85 was actually his career-high wRC+ by a very small margin.
Now to Iglesias, who spent the past four and a half years on the Tigers. He hit slightly better than Rosario and Galvis, with a .269/.310/.389 slash line and a 90 wRC+. His defense was also arguably better than both of theirs, as he posted 1.0 DRS and 8.2 UZR. For his career, he has accumulated 12 DRS and 40.3 UZR, while Galvis has not been quite as impressive with -3 DRS and 16.3 UZR. Iglesias does, however, provide the least amount of power of any of the three, as his career-high in homers for a season is only six and his career ISO is just .094.
Obviously, neither Galvis nor Iglesias are young potential stars like Rosario, but they’re still young enough that they should have at least a few more seasons like this in them. Both of them will be 29 this upcoming season.
Even though Rosario is now a Major Leaguer and technically not a prospect anymore, this trade would feel almost like trading a prospect. He hasn’t really done anything to prove to anyone that he is a star yet, but he is still young enough and there is still enough time to have hope and confidence that he will eventually become a star.
But the reality is that there is no guarantee that Rosario will ever become a star. Simple as that. Trading Rosario would be taking the same type of risk that you take when you trade any top prospect. You risk the chance that they eventually become a star for another team in an effort to win now rather than holding out for the future. With the Mets already making a huge “win-now” move by trading top prospects Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn, it is clear that they are in “win-now” mode. This trade would be an extremely “win-now” move in the sense that they are making an improvement to the team in the short-term while risking a net loss to the team in the long-term.
While Rosario could potentially break out in 2019, it is unlikely that he will just go from below-average Major Leaguer to superstar overnight. It will likely be a more gradual process, where he makes improvements here and there while repeatedly taking two steps forward and one step back to eventually get where he wants. We’ve seen this in his Major League play so far. But to expect Rosario to suddenly be Francisco Lindor in 2019 is extremely unrealistic. And if the Mets are okay with getting 2018 Rosario-level production from the shortstop position in 2019, either Galvis or Iglesias would be a pretty sure bet to provide that.
If I were Brodie Van Wagenen, trading Rosario for Realmuto would not be my ideal strategy. I like Rosario as much as the next guy, and I would rather he be on the team than not be on the team. While Realmuto is good, Yasmani Grandal is better and costs nothing but money. If it were up to me, I would just sign Grandal and keep the young talent.
But if I had to trade for Realmuto, the only way I’d consider it is if Rosario was the only major piece involved. If the Marlins are demanding for Nimmo or Confort, forget it. If they want to throw in a top prospect along with Rosario such as Gimenez or Peter Alonso, forget it.
I have hope for Rosario’s progression, and I really do hope that the Mets hold on to him. But looking at it from an objective standpoint, trading him as the centerpiece in a package for Realmuto just might be a move that would push the Mets closer to contention in the near future.
But for the love of God, Mets, please just keep things simple and sign Grandal so that in 25 years, we don’t have to watch Amed Rosario get inducted into the Hall of Fame as a Marlin.
