I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. The answer is CONTACT.
We all know the Mets offense has been struggling mightily since the All-Star break. At the break, I wrote how the Mets offense improved as their contact rates improved. As the Mets offense has faltered, guess what? Their contact rates have gone down as well.
It’s no surprise that as their post All-Star offense has faltered, their strikeout rate has gone up. Their best offensive period? When they struck out the least. This isn’t a team that lives or dies by the Home Run. If they did, we could live with the strikeouts. They don’t…. and boy, are the strikeouts killing us.
Runs Per 9 Innings
Average Per Games:
1-25 3.9
26-50 3.8
51-75 3.4
76-85 4.6
Average Per Games:
1-85 3.8
86-95 5.8
Post All-Star Break:
96-128 3.1
Pitches Per Plate Appearances:
Average Per Games:
1-25 3.9
26-50 3.9
51-75 4.0
76-85 3.9
86-95 3.8
Post All-Star Break:
96-128 3.9
122-126 4.0
Over the 5 game stretch from August 14th to August 19th when they managed a total of 19 hits, they took as many pitches per at bat as they did during their worst offensive stretch in the first half.
Plate Appearances Per Nine Innings:
1-25 37.7
26-50 38.4
51-75 37.6
76-85 38.1
Average Games: 1-85 37.9, 86-95 40.1
Post All-Star Break: 96-128 36.1, 122-126 34.1
The lineup has become significantly more stagnant post All-Star Break.
Percentage of plate appearances resulting in strikeouts:
1-25 24.4%
26-50 19.5%
51-75 21.3%
76-85 22.1%
Average games 1-85 21.8%, 86-95 15.1%
Post All-Star Break: 96-128 21.5%, 122-126 23.9%
After the hot stretch heading into the break, their strikeout rate jumped and their run output per nine innings tanked. The more they struck out, the more futile the office became.
Hits Per Nine Innings:
1-25 7.2
26-50 8.9
51-75 7.1
76-85 10.2
Post All-Star Break: 96-128 6.9, 122-126 4.0
Contact Rate versus runs per nine innings:
1-25 66.4% contact vs. 3.9 runs
26-50 72.5% contact vs. 3.8 runs
51-75 67.3% contact vs 3.4 runs
76-85 73.2% contact vs. 4.6 runs
86-95 74.8% contact vs. 5.8 runs
Post All-Star Break:
96-128 71.3% contact vs. 3.1 runs
122-126 65.0% contact vs. 3.3 runs.
Since the All-Star Break, the Mets have 4 or fewer hits in 11 (33%) of their games played. In these 11 games only 68.9% of all at-bats ended in contact and they averaged just 2.2 runs per 9 innings.
The Mets need to stop striking out and just put the ball in play.
