The Curse of Expectations: How Mets Rotation Is Perceived vs How Good It Actually Is
New York Mets fans became aware of the incessant expectations set in place for their team’s starting rotation beginning early in Spring Training. All one had to do was google “Mets greatest rotation ever” to find discussion of the subject in favor of such an argument. It was obviously premature yet it had some basis in reality. Two-thirds of the way through the 2016 baseball season, that declaration is not only premature; it seems insane.
A few of the horses of the rotation have indeed held up their end of the bargain. Jacob deGrom has been stellar as the under-appreciated staff ace. Second-year Norse God Noah Syndergaard has been dominant for the most part as well. Syndergaard’s 2.18 FIP ranks second-best in all of baseball behind only the peerless Clayton Kershaw.
The men tied for first and second on the team in wins respectively this season have also been pretty solid. The ageless Bartolo Colon and youngster Steven Matz have been as solid as a team would hope from the backend of a rotation. They allow a few too many baserunners and Colon especially doesn’t strike anyone out anymore, but for men who were supposed to be fourth and fifth starters, the Mets can’t ask for anything more.
Yet while four men have been collectively adequate to great, with Logan Verrett unfortunately filling in at some level well below that in his 10 starts, Matt Harvey, the man who was supposed to anchor this greatest rotation ever for the Mets, had been terrible and is now out for the rest of the season after being diagnosed with Thoracic Outlet Syndrome and opting for surgery.
Harvey’s 2016 season is just the latest example of tempering expectations for all pitchers, no matter how good they appear. He pitched long enough in 2016 to collect 10 losses. The team was 6-11 in games when he took the mound. This is a far cry from what anyone expected of him, and now his season has been cut short yet again. For all the hubbub surrounding Harvey and what the future may hold, the man has never made 30 starts in a professional season, major or minor league.
Then there are the distracting injuries that have befallen the rest of these arms. Syndergaard and Matz are both dealing with bone spurs that were diagnosed earlier in the summer. The former was removed early from a few starts; the latter pitched through it. It remains to be seen if this has had an effect on performance. Syndergaard has only pitched into the seventh inning once since June 15.
Such items are worth monitoring even as the players keep taking the mound. And then there’s the supposed fifth ace of this team, Zack Wheeler. He remains out while recovering from Tommy John surgery and is eyeing a September return to the team. But Wheeler hasn’t thrown a Major League pitch since September of 2014, nearly two full years ago. It would be unfair to count on him for anything of substance.
The Mets did acquire a potential starter at the trade deadline: retread Jon Niese who may be an option over Verrett as the fifth starter. But he hardly alters the landscape of this rotation if guys remain banged up or remain less effective.
It isn’t fair to blame a failure to meet those high expectations on Harvey’s shortcomings and subsequent injury. For one, the Mets rotation has been one of the best in the National League. But it hasn’t and probably never will reach the lofty heights folks projected for it when the season began. And a lot of that does fall on Harvey.
Even with Harvey’s poor numbers, the Mets have the third-best team ERA in the NL. Their collective FIP is above their ERA numbers, meaning the group is being aided slightly by the defense behind it and luck, but that’s part of succeeding as a ball club.
The Mets’ vaunted rotation is certainly not in the greatest-of-all-time territory, but their ability to compete for a pennant is failing more so because of a lack of runs than anything the rotation is or isn’t doing.
Hopefully the recent move to acquire Jay Bruce will help this issue. So this feeling that they are underachieving is really just a case of them being misjudged by their own lofty, unrealistic expectations.
