Taijuan Walker’s Struggles Couldn’t Be at a Worse Time

Looking to upgrade the starting rotation over the winter, the New York Mets signed pitcher Taijuan Walker to a three-year, $23 million contract through free agency and expected him to serve as a reliable middle-of-the-rotation arm, which he accomplished up until recently.

Starting strong out of the gate, Walker exceeded his early expectations and blew away the competition through the first two months of the season, allowing him to become one of the top pitchers in the majors during that span. Though he was still considered the third-best starter on the roster, with teammates Jacob deGrom and Marcus Stroman ranked ahead of him, the 28-year-old’s stellar production was still a welcomed surprise.

Enjoying one of the most successful stretches of his career, the right-hander thrived in his first nine starts of 2021, posting a 1.84 ERA, 2.65 FIP, 3.91 xFIP, .160 OPP AVG, 25.9% strikeout rate, 2.4% HR/FB rate and he also only allowed one home run through 49.0 innings of work.

In addition, the 6-foot-4-inch hurler won four of those nine outings to begin the regular season, with two of them coming against National League East Division rivals, the Atlanta Braves, and Washington Nationals.

Thanks to the impressive start to Walker’s tenure with the Mets, he received an opportunity to make his first career All-Star Game appearance. Although it’s also forced him to take on a much larger role with deGrom sidelined with forearm tightness. With the ace of this team’s rotation not expected to return until September, the former Seattle Mariner has needed to step up in a much higher capacity over the last month and a half.

While he’s shined at times, the towering hurler hasn’t played up to his high expectations as of late and has struggled mightily at keeping balls in the yard. An alarming issue that couldn’t be coming at a worse time for this club.

Failing to rise to the occasion, the former first-round selection has hit a major speed bump over his seven starts before Tuesday’s, recording a miserable 7.18 ERA, 6.32 FIP, 5.05 xFIP, .291 OPP AVG, 17.6% strikeout rate, 22.2% HR/FB rate and has surrendered eight home runs through 31 1/3 innings.

Taking into account these troubling results, paired with a lack of inconsistent run support, Walker has dropped each of his last two outings and hasn’t earned a single victory since Jul. 3, where he allowed just two runs over 5 2/3 innings. Even more concerning is that he’s been unable to perform effectively with two of his three primary pitches, as his four-seamer and slider haven’t been nearly as dominant as they were earlier in the season.

Starting with his mid-90s heater, which has been utilized 32.3% of the time in 2021, it proved to be a strikeout machine early on as the towering righty created a 44.1% strikeout rate with it over his first nine starts of the campaign. Digging even deeper, his fastball also induced a .115 AVG, a .188 xAVG, a .148 SLG, a .325 xSLG, a .165 wOBA, a .262 xwOBA and didn’t allow any home runs during that same span.

Playing a huge factor in his recent woes, Walker has gotten a little off track with the command of his four-seamer, allowing opposing hitters to create a ton of damage against it over his last seven starts. As a result, it’s registered a .250 AVG, a .255 xAVG, a .536 SLG, a .534 xSLG, a .363 wOBA, a .368 xwOBA, a 21.0% strikeout rate and has allowed four home runs.

If featuring an unreliable fastball wasn’t damning enough, the Yucaipa HS standout has also recently experienced control issues with his mid-80s slider, which has been thrown 22.0% this season. Unable to keep it away from hittable locations, it’s generated a mind-numbing .391 AVG, a .346 xAVG, a .739 SLG, a .561 xSLG, a .501 wOBA and a .423 xwOBA since Jun. 20.

Struggling to consistently stay in the ballpark, his breaking ball has given up a pair of home runs during those last seven starts – adding some additional frustration to his recent performance. Along with allowing plenty of contact, it also hasn’t served as an effective swing-and-miss offering, resulting in just a 15.4% strikeout rate.

Putting his ineffectiveness into perspective, Walker’s slider was a very reliable weapon over his first nine starts of the season, as it produced a .125 AVG, a .235 xAVG, a .175 SLG, a .397 xSLG, a .148 wOBA, a .283 xwOBA, an 18.2% strikeout rate and didn’t allow a single home run from Apr. 8 to May 29.

Searching for the culprit behind this dramatic change of events, the California native has witnessed notable declines in the amount of spin he’s been able to generate with both his four-seamer and slider since the calendar switched to June.

While it’s unclear if the crackdown on foreign substances has had any effect on him, it’s hard to ignore the fact that his production started to slip, and has since continued to worsen, around the same time that policy was put into place. Still, there could be multiple factors that might be impacting the spin on his pitches, like perhaps an undisclosed injury to his pitching arm.

In particular, Walker’s fastball averaged 2,173 RPMs through his first nine starts of 2021. But over his last seven outings, it’s only averaged 2,028 RPMs, which is a difference of 145 RPMs – that sudden decrease should be a large enough amount to raise some eyebrows inside the organization.

As for Walker’s slider, its average spin rate hasn’t lowered nearly as much compared to his fastball, although it’s still something the Mets’ coaching staff needs to be concerned about.

From Apr. 8 to May 29, his breaking ball averaged 2,438 RPMs. But similar to his heater, its average spin rate has dropped to 2,358 RPMs since Jun. 20, resulting in a decline of 80 RPMs.

If Walker was indeed using some sort of illegal substance, which remains to be seen, it could be very difficult for him to bounce back from these recent struggles, especially since every pitcher has been forced to essentially go “cold turkey” during the middle of the season.

Given that deGrom will likely be sidelined for at least another month, it’ll be extremely crucial for Walker to find a way to recapture some of the success he enjoyed earlier this season. Even if that previous form of himself isn’t completely attainable, he’ll still need to significantly reduce the number of home runs allowed while also improving his ability to generate swings and misses.

The Mets’ playoff chances have taken a major hit as of late, the odds of this team holding onto their current division lead will continue to drop unless the offense starts producing more consistently, or the pitching staff takes its performance up to another level and begins to carry an even heavier load moving forward.

But considering how this lineup has performed in the second half, there may be a higher chance of Walker correcting his woes on the mound than there is of receiving increased run support through the rest of the way.