Francisco Lindor. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

All is forgiven for Francisco Lindor following a terrific bounce-back season in his second year with the New York Mets. Thumbs down and boos gave way to cheers as Mr. Smiles lived up to the expectations of an all-around player and team leader. On a team that ranked fifth in the majors in runs scored, Lindor was the second-biggest driver of those runs, as expected when he signed his 10-year, $341 million extension.

Following Lindor’s 2021 season, the trade in which the Mets acquired him from Cleveland didn’t appear too great. Sure, Lindor played much better in the second half of the season and his underlying metrics indicated that he got somewhat unlucky. Still, a 100 OPS+ is not what the Mets had signed up for.

Let’s reexamine that trade again, two years later. How are both sides looking? Who “won” the trade?

The Prize: Lindor

Obviously, the impetus for this trade was Lindor. The Guardians knew they could not afford to retain him in free agency and therefore unloaded him for the best deal they could get.

In six seasons with Cleveland, Lindor slashed .285/.346/.488/.834, averaging 29 homers and 85 RBI per 162 games (he played 99 games in 2015 and 60 in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, so he had the equivalent of five years of service time). His OPS+ was 118, and he compiled 28.1 bWAR.

Lindor’s first season with the Mets did not go as planned. He hit just .230/.322/.412/.734 with a dead-average OPS+ of 100. He totaled just 3.1 bWAR, the lowest total of his career (excluding the pandemic year).

Furthermore, because Lindor’s OPS was just .698 in the first half of the season while the Mets were still competitive, there was a perception that he could not handle the pressure of New York. In this area, Lindor did himself no favors when he and Javier Baez made the thumbs-down signal to each other in a game, signaling their defiance towards the fans’ displeasure.

Lindor also had stark splits between the Mets’ wins and losses in 2021. In 62 wins, he hit .288/.397/.550/.947, but in 63 losses, he hit .174/.273/.278/.521. His OPS+ was 124 in wins and 73 in losses. When the Mets were ahead in games, he hit .271/.357/.556/.914; when they were behind, he hit .195/.281/.289/.570. This also furthered the idea that Lindor could not hit in big spots to help the team get over the hump.

Ironically, Lindor hit significantly better at home than on the road in 2021, which means the home fans got to see the better version of him, at least. At home, he hit .244/.335/.453/.788, certainly not an ideal batting average but actually similar to his overall 2022 output in terms of OPS. On the road, though, those numbers went down to .216/.310/.370/.680. That puts into question the narrative that the pressure of New York was too much for him.

In 2022, though, Lindor returned to his old excellent form. His overall slash line of .270/.339/.449/.788 and 125 OPS+ understate his value to the Mets. He posted 5.4 bWAR and 6.8 fWAR, which do a better job of describing how much the Mets needed him, as those numbers led the team. He also put up 26 homers and 107 RBIs, bringing the power element to a team that needed it.

As described in a previous article, many of Lindor’s underlying metrics were actually worse in 2022 than 2021. However, they were also more in keeping with his career norms: not hitting the ball quite as hard or as high, but making good contact in the zone and outperforming some of his expected metrics.

It also cannot be overstated how much value Lindor brings the Mets as a switch hitter. They feel comfortable slotting him in at the top of the lineup regardless of the handedness of the pitcher since he can hit both ways. In 2022, Lindor was remarkably consistent from both sides of the plate, hitting .269/.343/.446/.789 from the left side and .271/.327/.457/.784 from the right. His ability to hit lefties was a huge boon for a team that struggled to find consistency vs. southpaws.

After one difficult season and one strong one, there is no way to know for certain where Lindor will head in 2023. However, he had already started to come on in the second half of 2021, which means he has posted a year and a half of Lindor-like numbers. The ZiPS projections forecast 6.1 fWAR for him in 2023.

So far, this part of the deal seems to be working out for the Mets.

Carlos Carrasco

The Mets were thrilled to receive Carlos Carrasco as part of the Lindor package. Cookie was coming off a bounce-back Covid year in which he posted a 2.91 ERA (3.79 xERA), 3.59 FIP, and 1.5 WAR in 68 innings across 12 starts. From 2014-18, Carrasco was a rock-solid starter, posting ERAs no higher than 3.63 and FIPs as low as 2.44. He had a rocky 2019 before his leukemia diagnosis, but rebounded in 2020.

However, Carrasco’s first year in orange and blue never really got off the ground. He missed the first three-and-a-half months of the season with various injuries. When he returned, he pitched just 53.2 innings across 12 starts, posting a 6.04 ERA, 67 ERA+, and a 5.22 FIP. He was particularly terrible against right-handed batters, allowing a .296/.347/.600/.947 line (155 OPS+) in his supposed platoon advantage.

In Carrasco’s second season with the Mets, he was penciled in as the fourth or fifth starter during spring training. He often functioned as a third starter during the season, though, due to injuries up and down the Mets rotation throughout the year.

On the surface, 2022 was another bounce-back season for Carrasco. He pitched 152 innings across 29 starts, posting a 3.97 ERA and 3.53 FIP. However, his 1.32 WHIP meant that he was working in and out of trouble every game. In addition, his 97 ERA+ indicates that he was slightly below average in ERA when adjusting for the ballparks he pitched in. He put up 2.4 fWAR, which is okay for a fifth starter.

Carrasco’s biggest asset as a pitcher was getting batters to chase pitches out of the zone, placing in the 94th percentile. He was also above average in whiff rate (65th percentile) and the spin on his curve (75th). However, his poor hard-hit rate (32nd) was one of the drivers of his high WHIP, which put pressure on his defense and led to many high-leverage pitching situations.

Overall, Carrasco’s part in the Lindor deal has been uneven. He battled injuries and poor performance in 2021, but the sum total of his performance in 2022 was close to what the Mets could have realistically expected from him at his age and given his career trajectory.

There has been some trade speculation about Carrasco this offseason. However, there does not appear to be anything imminent in the works. As of now, Carrasco will likely play out his one-year team option for $14 million in his age-36 season and then become a free agent.

The Mets would be thrilled if Carrasco can give them a repeat performance from last year. He once again enters spring training as the fifth starter. Given his age and injury history, along with the ages of the Mets’ other starters, the team will likely end up relying significantly on their starting pitching depth, including David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi, and Elieser Hernández.

Carrasco’s ZiPS projection forecasts 140 innings pitched for Carrasco with a 4.35 ERA, 4.24 FIP, and 1.1 fWAR. The Mets would be happy with those innings numbers but hope for some better production. However, the amount of hard contact Carrasco allowed in 2022 would tend to indicate that his .337 BABIP was not fluky and will correlate with worse results as he continues to age.

Andrés Giménez

Many Mets fans liked Andrés Giménez, who displayed a plus glove and some intriguing hitting skills in his time with the Mets. However, a price had to be paid for Lindor, and New York now had two shortstops who were rendered redundant in Gimenez and Amed Rosario.

Giménez’s first season in Cleveland went far less swimmingly than even Lindor’s in New York. He hit .218/.282/.351/.633 in 210 plate appearances for the Guardians, posting a 74 wRC+ and 0.8 fWAR while striking out 25.7% of the time. Defensively, he played a fine shortstop, posting 5 OAA and 4 DRS in 322 innings. He was not as good at second base, putting up -1 OAA and -2 DRS in 196 innings.

It appeared that Giménez was never going to make it as a hitter enough to develop as a starting-caliber middle infielder. However, he was still just in his age-23 season and had time to grow as a hitter.

2022 was a totally different story for the diminutive Giménez. In 146 games, a full starter’s slate, he made the All-Star team and looked like the player the Mets had seen glimpses of at times when he was a rookie. Giménez hit .297/.371/.466/.837 with 17 homers, 69 RBI, and 140 wRC+. His 6.1 fWAR was among the top for middle infielders.

Interestingly, Giménez’s Statcast numbers read somewhat similarly to Jeff McNeil‘s, as he recorded a .353 BABIP, which was identical to McNeil’s. He was also below average in both hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and average exit velocity, although not quite as low as McNeil. The main difference is their batting eye and expected batting average: McNeil was in the 99th percentile in strikeout rate and the 91st in whiff rate, while Giménez was in the 56th and 39th in those areas, respectively.

Still, Giménez seems like a typical Mets prospect: a seeing-eye hitter who can hit it where the fielders aren’t. If he can keep that up, the Guardians will have gotten back a player who can make up for a lot of what they lost in Lindor. Indeed, Giménez’s 17 homers and .837 OPS show that he’s not even that far behind Lindor in the power department (if at all). Not bad at all for what was supposed to be a one-sided trade.

Of course, Giménez needs to show that he can sustain his success rather than be a one-year wonder. His ZiPS projection for 2023 is .266/.336/.416/.752 and 4.9 fWAR, which is a significant drop-off from his 2022 height (although still solid). However, since ZiPS takes into account the previous three seasons in the projection, Giménez can outperform it significantly if 2022 was a true breakout.

Amed Rosario 

The other major leaguer involved in the deal was Amed Rosario, another shortstop who had shown flashes of potential with the Mets. However, after a strong finish to 2019, Rosario reverted back to his high-strikeout, low-contact prior ways in 2020.

Rosario has been just about an average player for Cleveland in both of his seasons with them. His slash lines of .282/.321/.409/.730 and .283/.312/.403/.715 are about what you’d expect from a player with his hitting profile. He posted an identical WAR of 2.4 and wRC+ of 99 and 103, respectively. That is pretty much textbook average.

Statcast metrics for Rosario are all over the map. He doesn’t hit the ball that hard (41st percentile in hard-hit rate and 39th in average exit velocity) or barrel many balls (18th) and his chase rate is terrible (4th), but his whiff rate is above average (74th) and he did not strike out a lot in 2022 (79th). His batting eye has seemingly improved since his days with the Mets, but the results aren’t all that different.

Rosario placed in the second percentile in OAA in 2022, which makes him a very poor defensive shortstop.

Overall, Rosario is a competent major-league starter who seems unlikely to develop into anything more than that. His defense is a liability that lowers his value, but his hitting is good enough to keep him in the lineup. He was a decent complementary piece for Giménez in the deal.

OF Isaiah Greene and RHP Josh Wolf

These two were minor leaguers of little consequence for the Mets. Both were in A-ball in 2022. Isaiah Greene hit .226/.393/.340/.733 in 114 minor league games last season. Josh Wolf had an ERA over 6.00 between rookie ball and Class-A. They are 21 and 20 years old, respectively, so there may be some time for them to develop, but neither appeared on the Guardians’ MLB.com top 30 prospects list in 2022.

Who Won the Trade?

After two years, the Mets still received the biggest star of the deal. Lindor’s combination of power, defense, clutch hitting, speed, and leadership cannot be underestimated. He has a solid history of above-average play. Carrasco also provided the Mets with value.

However, this trade has not turned out quite as one-sided as it appeared at the time, at least as of now. Giménez had a year that rivaled Lindor’s in many areas. Rosario is almost as serviceable a hitter as Carrasco is a pitcher, and he’s 27 years old to Cookie’s near-36.

I believe that each side is likely satisfied with what they have. Should the Guardians have gotten a higher-ceiling prospect than Rosario in return for one of the best shortstops in the league? Likely, but they did not have leverage due to their noted inability to pay Lindor and the influx of top shortstops hitting the free-agent market the following offseason. Considering that trade position, if Giménez can sustain his 2022 success, it will truly be a win for the Guardians, as well.

The one regret that the Mets might end up having is giving up Giménez instead of Ronny Mauricio. At the time, Mauricio was considered the Mets’ second-best prospect, as he was No. 67 on MLB.com’s top 100 list in 2021. It was quite the coup not to have to give him up for Lindor. However, Mauricio has now fallen out of the top 100 (although he is still on Keith Law’s list at No. 87), and there are questions about his long-term prospects in the majors.

Hindsight is always 20-20, but imagine this Mets team with Lindor at shortstop, Gimenez at second, and McNeil in left field (or wherever else the Mets chose to place him on any given day). Still, you’ll hear few complaints from Mets fans who have their second- or third-best hitter locked down for a decade.

We’ll continue to revisit this trade as the years go by. For now, consider Steve Cohen’s first big splash with the Mets a good one.

The post A Look Back At Mets’ Trade for Francisco Lindor, Two Years Later appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

It was a deadline day for the New York Mets as they acquired two-time All Star shortstop Javier Báez and right-handed pitcher Trevor Williams from the Chicago Cubs.

On a day that saw the rival Atlanta Braves strike multiple deals to improve their team, the Dodgers acquire Max Scherzer and Trea Turner, and the Giants trade for Kris Bryant, the Mets knew they had to make a move to keep their name among the top of the NL contenders.

Friday afternoon saw Mets team president Sandy Alderson and general manager Zack Scott speak to the media about the trade and their thoughts on the deadline around the league.

When asked about why the team locked in on Báez as their main target for the deadline Zack Scott said “Javy gets the edge over maybe some other guys because he fits a direct positional need right now. He provides that versatility when Francisco does return.”

Later on Scott said a quote that can only excite Mets fans when he said “He’s not going to back down in this kind of market. He’s going to thrive in it. He’s fearless.”

Something to note as well was that team owner Steve Cohen was involved in talks this past week speaking frequently with Scott and “being very supportive of whatever it was that we wanted to do”.

Sandy Alderson went on to say that the front office felt they had to make a big splash for the team, “We needed to do something, not only to improve the team, but to demonstrate to the players that we had their backs and we’re attempting to make the team better for the next 60 games.”

Sandy also went on to say that prices were high from teams and never really went down which along with the high amount of buyers made this deadline different than ones we’ve seen in years past.

When asked about how they felt the Mets stacked up to the three-headed monster of the NL West, Zack Scott said, “I think we have as good a shot as anybody.”

At the end of the presser Scott also praised the teams positional flexibility when everyone is healthy, “We have some versatility, I think that alone will help us find the best spots for everyone.”

The post Highlights From Post Trade Deadline Presser appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

The Royals were dealt tough news when they found out that long-time catcher Salvador Perez needed Tommy John Surgery. Perez had surgery on Wednesday and will miss the entire 2019 season. 

As things currently stand, the only catchers on the Royals 40-man roster are Cam Gallagher and Meibrys Viloria. The two players with a combined 114 major league AB’s with no real stats or memorable tools to speak of. 

The Royals are a rebuilding team, so they could conceivably just lick their wounds and stick with Gallager and Viloria. However, there’s multiple reports saying they have talked to free agent catcher Martin Maldonado. Meaning they’re looking to upgrade at the position, which brings us to the Mets and Travis d’Arnaud. 

The Mets signed Wilson Ramos and brought back Devin Mesoraco (potentially as deGrom’s personal catcher) in the offseason, which could possibly leave Travis d’Arnaud out to dry.

D’Arnaud, 30, is just coming back from his own Tommy John procedure from last year and is in his last year of team control. He is due to make just $3.5 million this season. 

Looking around what could be a possible return for d’Arnaud, I reached out to a good friend of mine who is a die hard Royals fan, and we work on some possible deals and eventually worked on two possibly deals that could leave both teams happy.

Proposal 1

Mets trade Travis d’Arnaud for for RHP Kyle Zimmer

Zimmer, 27, is a former 5th overall pick in the 2012 Draft and hasn’t been able to break the major leagues yet. He missed the 2018 season due to injury, but has the experience as both a starter and a reliever, which is the type of versatility that the Mets love. Pair that with with a very high K/9 rate (career 10.9 K/9) a moderately low walk rate (career 3.1 BB/9) a mid-90’s fastball and a plus curveball and he could possibly be the final piece to a much improved Mets bullpen for 2019.

The former top 100 pick looks to be healthy, he’s thrown 4.2 scoreless innings this spring.

Proposal 2

Mets trade Travis d’Arnaud for CF Bubba Starling and 3B Emmanuel Rivera

Starling, 26, is another failed former top prospect of the Royals, ranked as high as 17th in MLB’s top 100 prospects in 2012, but offensive struggles and lingering injuries have held him back. However, Starling is a player that used to be seen as a five-tool guy, and maybe a change of scenery is what he needed. Rivera is seen as the Royals 16th overall prospect according to MLB.com. He’s a natural third baseman that has started to tap into some very real hard contact and raw power with a solid glove at the hot corner as well.

The post Can the Mets and Royals Match for D’Arnaud Trade? appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Luis Santana, Shervyen Newton Photo by Tanner Cook of TimesNews

With the Mets trades this offseason, many of their top prospects are gone leaving various outlets, including our own, to revisit their rankings. FanGraphs released their Top 25 Mets prospects on Monday after adjusting for recent movement by the team.

For example, two of the top 10 prospects as determined by Fangraphs previously, are no longer with the organization. In their recently published Top 25, Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn have been replaced by Shervyen Newton and Desmond Lindsay. FanGraphs also noted that Luis Santana would’ve been No. 10 on this list before being trading to the Astros this past weekend.

Newton earned his spot in this list with a very strong season with Kingsport where he hit .280/.408/.449. Fangraphs is quite how on Newton going so far as to say “the ceiling on Newton if everything actualizes is superstardom.”

With the the trades and Newton among those riding, the top 25 is now:

1. Peter Alonso, 1B
2. Andres Gimenez, SS
3. Ronnie Mauricio, SS
4. Mark Vientos, 3B
5. Shervyen Newton, SS
6. David Peterson, LHP
7. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP
8. Thomas Szapucki, LHP
9. Anthony Kay, LHP
10. Desmond Lindsay, CF
11. Francisco Alvarez, C
12. Franklyn Kilome, RHP
13. Will Toffey, 3B
14. Carlos Cortes, 2B
15. Adrian Hernandez, CF
16. Junior Santos, RHP
17. Walter Lockett, RHP
18. Sam Haggerty, 2B
19. Tony Dibrell, RHP
20. Christian James, RHP
21. Ryley Gilliam, RHP
22. Gavin Cecchini, 2B
23. Nick Meyer, C
24. Ryder Ryan, RHP
25. Jordan Humphreys, RHP

The two newest names on the list are those from this past weekend’s Kevin Plawecki trade.

Walker Lockett, 24, was recently a member of the San Diego Padres organization before a November trade. In four Major League appearances, Lockett was 0-3 with a 9.60 ERA, 2.133 WHIP, and a 1.2 K/BB.  Overall, while Fangraphs Lockett is hittabke, and he  “needs a weapon that works in on the hands of lefties, like a cutter” to be a backend starter.

The other prospect obtained in the Plawecki trade was Sam Haggerty, who Fangraphs now ranks as the 18th best prospect in the Mets farm system. Fangraphs sees him as a hitter who understands the strike zone, but “limited from both a power and bat-to-ball standpoint, so it’s possible his patience will be irrelevant if big league pitching decides he’s not a threat to do damage on his own and make it a point to let him put the ball in play.”

The 24-year-old spent time between Double-A and Triple-A hitting .239/.369/.384 while playing second, third, short, and all three outfield positions.

Other prospects of note to be included in the Top 25 were Simeon Woods-Richardson, Carlos Cortes, Ryley Gilliam, and Nick Meyer, all of whom are the highest drafted players remaining from the Mets 2018 draft.

Those prospects are joined on the list by recent international free agent signees Alvarez and Santos.

When you also include the players recently obtained in trades, nine of the 25 players on the list were obtained over the past calendar year.

While an influx of talent like that is promising, it should be noted the Mets farm system has taken a significant hit with the recent trades.

The post FanGraphs Releases Post-Trades Mets’ Top 25 Prospects appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

The trade deadline has come and gone, and the Mets have only made two trades. With all of the pieces that could have been moved, only Lucas Duda and Addison Reed were sent elsewhere. That leaves New York with Asdrubal Cabrera, Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson, Rene Rivera, Neil Walker and Jose Reyes despite the rumblings over the past few weeks leading up to Monday.

An interesting league-wide aversion to trading for position players truly took hold Monday, as over the past couple of weeks almost every trade that will impact a playoff race came in the form of pitching. Outside of Eduardo Nunez, Jonathan Lucroy, Lucas Duda, Todd Frazier, JD Martinez, Alex Avila, and Howie Kendrick, there were no position players with much Major League service time to their name acquired by contenders.

I’m not entirely sure what this means. It could potentially be as simple as 2017 is a season in which offense leads the way and even with a couple of holes in the pitching staff, a team like the Houston Astros can still be roughly 162 games up on the rest of their division. That’s something to monitor not only for this season but in the future as well. Unfortunately for the Mets, it made Addison Reed the only likely trade target for any of the buyers out there.

As much as myself and every other fan wanted to see all of our impending free agents traded Monday, that’s not what happened. What does this mean going forward?

The big factor that still looms is the waiver trade deadline on August 31st. For the uninitiated, this means that teams can place a player on revocable waivers, and wait for them to be claimed or pass through the 29 other teams. If claimed, the two sides have 48.5 hours to work out a trade, or the player can be pulled back by their team. If there is no claim, the player has cleared waivers and can be traded to any team in the league, or pulled back and return to their team. In sum, despite the more discussed deadline passing today, the next month will still be busy for the front office.

As for Bruce, this one seems pretty clear. The market was lower for him than Sandy Alderson and the staff expected, so they decided to keep him for at least another month, and potentially through the end of the season if nothing presents itself. When free agency begins, the Mets can either attempt to re-sign him or extend a qualifying offer, which would net a draft pick if he leaves. Given Alderson’s comments about Conforto’s play in center field, it’s not hard to envision a scenario where Bruce is a Met in 2018.

Reyes and Granderson are in similar situations, as it’s likely that neither return to the team next year. Whether or not Bruce is still manning right field at Citi in 2018, Granderson’s tenure in Queens is probably over with Juan Lagares and Brandon Nimmo primed to become full-time members of the big club. Unless he’s willing to take a cheaper deal instead of walking, or even retiring, he could be an expensive fifth outfielder. I would love to have him around for depth purposes, but he’ll have more value elsewhere. If Jay Bruce is a Met, then there’s absolutely no chance that Granderson signs on to sit at the very end of the Mets bench.

Reyes is in a similar situation, where he could accept a bench role, but no one will be falling over themselves to sign him. With Wilmer Flores and T.J. Rivera potentially becoming depth infielders, Reyes doesn’t do much more than take on space on the roster. If one of those two is starting, however, it could make sense to see Reyes come back next year.

The one important factor with Reyes that I may be downplaying is his ability to mentor Amed Rosario as he adjusts playing shortstop in the Majors, but I have no idea how to properly rate that. Both Reyes and Granderson can be sold to the highest bidder, with Grandy being much more likely to be traded, even if it means the team is getting almost nothing in return. The issue is, I’m not sure if there will be any bidders.

Cabrera and Walker is where life gets interesting. There’s an unfortunate truth about the second base position with the way our team is constructed, which is that if we lose both Cabrera and Walker, we’ve committed full-time to Rivera. While that may actually work out well because Rivera is consistent and has shown to be at the very least average, some insurance would be nice. I don’t mean insurance in the form of Wilmer Flores, Gavin Cecchini, or Matt Reynolds, I mean insurance in the form of a player who has a longer track record of being average or better.

This wasn’t a thought I had considered until I began writing this post, but it makes a lot of sense to me now. I believe we can all agree that we would prefer to have Walker around, even if his injury issues in each of the past two seasons give us some pause. Clearly the Mets agree with that sentiment, or they wouldn’t have shopped Cabrera over the past few weeks. However, because he’s the better and more steady player, he may command more than the Wilpons are willing to spend at the position, so we could end up stuck with Cabrera after all. This is all depends on whether or not the baseball operations team can receive the assurance from ownership that they can spend few million dollars extra to keep Walker.

Look at this horror scenario: the Mets trade Cabrera to try and maximize his value, they get the prospect or two from the one team who wants his services. They then fail to re-sign Walker this offseason, leaving us with only Rivera and Reynolds/Cecchini. Again, this is not so much horrible as it is a horrible risk to take when the team wants to compete. It could work out fine, but it’s not a position that you want to be in heading into the year. If you think that we can trade away both players and simply re-sign them, you’ve underrated the advantage that an incumbent team has to retain their players, even outside of the built-in five day exclusive negotiating window after the World Series.

So what does this mean for the August 31st deadline? My completely unfounded prediction says that the Mets will plan to retain Walker, and push hard to trade Cabrera this month.

I almost forgot to mention Rene Rivera. I like him, but he’s entirely replaceable, so I would expect the Mets to throw him at any team that’s in the market for a backup catcher, even if it’s a team like the Royals who have a catcher in Salvador Perez who never takes a day off.

In sum, this will be an active month for Sandy and Co. Regardless of the perceived inaction at the deadline Monday, it’s hard to truly judge the team’s selling process until we’ve reached the month of September as we see who’s still around and who packed up their lockers at Citi.

The post The World Didn’t End With The July 31 Deadline appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

The Mets’ young core is giving the fans hope for a sustained run of success. But the mere presence of these budding superstars, in a bizarre way, holds them back as they try to supplement this core. Every team wants to break up our top young rotation.

Other teams ignore our silver, simply because they see we also have gold. Then they accept offers of silver, even bronze, elsewhere

This has bothered me for a long time, and the feeling resurfaced today. By now, you’ve probably heard that superstar closer Aroldis Chapman is coming to New York.

Yes, THAT Aroldis Chapman. The Cuban lefty whose 105 MPH missile makes the Mets’ young “fireballers” look like they’re lobbing water balloons.

But not THAT New York baseball team. Aroldis Chapman is not coming to Queens, where he’d fill what might be the Mets’ biggest hole: an elite relief pitcher to pair with Jeurys Familia in the bullpen. Chapman will not be giving the Mets a multi-headed bullpen monster like the one the Royals showed off en route to their recent World Series title at our expense; he’ll be adding to the one the Yankees have already built across town. Chapman, Dellin Betances, and Andrew Miller (it sure looks like we should have signed him last winter) will give the Yankees a trio of nearly unhittable arms out of the pen. The Yankees won’t have to worry when one of those guys needs a day off. If they can get the ball to their bullpen with a lead, even if they can’t get it straight to the closer, the Yanks will be just fine.

The Mets could have used an elite reliever, and Aroldis Chapman fits that bill. Furthermore, he doesn’t come attached with a long-term commitment— while most teams would rather acquire a guy under “control,” the Mets appear to almost exclusively want guys on one-year deals, which is why they’ll happily shell out over $22 Million to Addison Reed, Jerry Blevins, Alejandro De Aza and Bartolo Colon in 2016 but have balked at multi-year deals for the likes of Darren O’Day, Ryan Madson and Joakim Soria in the bullpen or Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton, and Gerardo Parra in the outfield. Chapman, like most players the Mets have brought in, is a free agent after the season.

The Yankees got Chapman while managing to hold on to all of their top prospects. The names you may have heard— Judge, Bird, Mateo, Severino— are all staying put. The Yankees gave up their #6 and #10 prospects, along with two guys outside their top 30.

The Mets reportedly discussed Chapman at the trade deadline, so he was surely at least on their radar at some point. If the Yankees took a guy who had been on the Mets’ list, it wouldn’t be the first time. Look at Starlin Castro, who was connected to the Mets for a couple years in rumors and hypothetical mutually beneficial trade scenarios. The Mets were starting at a steep price tag of at least one of their young aces (Steven Matz, Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Zack Wheeler and Matt Harvey) and potentially more. The Yankees got him for a pretty good 28 year-old pitcher with little upside. A similar outcome took place with Didi Gregorius: the Mets balked at the high price tag, but the Yankees scored a discount by landing Didi in a three-team trade that cost them a 26 year-old with a 3.80 ERA.

For the Mets, a comparable Chapman package to the one the Mets gave up would be: Matt Reynolds, Wuilmer Becerra, Akeel Morris and Max Wotell. I have been generous, even, listing a probably-more-valuable package to account for my admittedly lacking knowledge of the details of the Yankees’ farm system. What I am quite confident of, however, is the likelihood that if the Mets engaged the Reds in trade talks— even after the legal troubles I will address at the end of this article— the players being floated about would have been the young aces and guys like Brandon Nimmo, Amed Rosario and Dom Smith, rather than guys like Reynolds and Morris (he of the 67.50 MLB ERA).

The Mets have a set of absolute gems at the top of their trade-value pyramid. They have a billion-dollar rotation making peanuts (in addition to Michael Conforto). Is there a drop-off after that? Sure, how could there not be, with such amazing young talent at the front of the pack? But the continued pattern— at least one that certainly appears to be the case when we hear about guys other teams are asking for in talks with us, then see the guys they ultimately accept from other squads— appears to indicate that Sandy Alderson’s fellow GMs are expecting him to give a ton simply because he has a ton to give, and are turning up their noses at some very solid alternatives to the untouchable— deservedly so— pieces. The Yankees can trade guys of value on par with Nimmo or even Reynolds and Morris because they don’t have guys like Syndergaard.

What still remains odd, then, is the quality of the players the Yankees gave up relative to their OWN system. It is somewhat understandable that a team might accept Judge from the Yankees when they’d want Thor from the Mets— the Yankees don’t have a guy like Thor to give. But, unlike in negotiations with the Mets, teams appear to be willing to take packages of lesser minor-leaguers when the Yankees hold firm on keeping their own top guys. And if anything, it should be the other way around. The Mets’ 11th-best prospect is probably a good amount better than the Yankees’ 6th-best guy, but Brian Cashman is having a much easier time getting teams to give up great players than Sandy Alderson, despite having inferior chips to trade.

Now, I am not praising Cashman at Sandy’s expense. I happen to think Cashman is a mediocre GM blessed with an aggressive and extremely wealthy ownership group. Sandy has made his share of terrific trades, such as the Beltran-Wheeler deal or the Dickey-Syndergaard/d’Arnaud/Bucerra pillaging. The swap of Marlon Byrd for Dilson Herrera should pay off soon. But what do these deals have in common? Sandy is getting prospects for established MLB studs, and is fortunately (but to his credit) hitting on these prospects rather than getting a haul of busts. That’s all good and well, but the Mets are at the point where they should put a twist on that model, and see if they can move prospects for elite MLB talent— without emptying out the farm system. The Yankees have routinely swung such trades, and while I’m never shy to criticize the Mets’ front office, it seems like much of the issue lies with the attitudes of the people across the table from Sandy when he and his counterparts sit down to negotiate.

I would be remiss in not acknowledging Aroldis Chapman’s current legal troubles. These troubles certainly hurt his trade value, because he could get suspended— and they hurt his value in the eyes of many fans who are put off by his possible character issues. But it seems unlikely he’d get a massive suspension (if he did, the Yankees might get another year of him due to service time rules, if not, they’ll get a draft pick if they want to let him walk after the season). So the Yankees will have a superstar for nearly the entire season and the postseason, and it doesn’t seem like they gave up much to get him— certainly not as much as the package the Mets would have needed to send to Cincinnati to get the same player.

While these situations are all unique (the Didi deal was a three-teamer, and Chapman’s situation is certainly cloudy) and trading is not based on a mathematical “value” rating like you might see in a video game, it doesn’t seem like the Mets are being given fair treatment when they attempt to play the trade market. As players shed the “prospect” label— Harvey and deGrom already have, the other starters will soon— other teams may stop trying to steal our aces at a “prospect” price and begin to appreciate the considerable value of the next tier— Nimmo, Smith and the like— of top Met prospects when the Mets show up to hammer out a trade.

But the irrational negotiating stance our fellow teams appear to be taking with us is as frustrating as any internal payroll gripe.

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The MLB Draft is just a few days away, so one might expect front office executives to currently be focusing their attention on the top college and high school players in the nation. But yesterday, the first real trade of the 2015 season went down out West, where Seattle acquired slugger Mark Trumbo from Arizona in a six-player deal.

Is it trade season? It is never too early to make a trade. It is never too late— until July 31, shortly before which there is always a flurry of activity. But teams rarely strike notable deals early in the season, preferring to wait until July or at least June to make moves. Somebody has to break the ice. The Mariners and Diamondbacks broke the ice yesterday, and teams might now feel ready to kick down the door and start patching up the holes they have identified in their organization thus far.

Injuries, poor performances, and pre-existing holes have combined to create some serious needs on the Mets’ roster, especially on offense. This team is in contention, but has been trending down since a red-hot start to the year. If Sandy Alderson & Co. are serious about playing meaningful baseball this fall, the time to act is not July 31. It is now.

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Turns out the Mets gave up 3 young players who were still regarded as prospects- Billy Beane, Bill Latham, and Joe Klink. Beane was a former first-rounder who never panned out with the Mets, but obviously he was the key player in the deal for Minnesota, because they gave him a fair amount of playing time in 1986. He hit all of .213 with no power, pretty much sealing his fate as a failed prospect. Beane, of course, later became one of the fast rising young executives in baseball and has been firmly entrenched as the Oakland A’s GM for quite awhile now. Latham and Klink were young lefthanded pitchers. Latham was probably considered the better prospect, but Klink had some success in the major leagues as a lefty specialist a few years later, while Latham had no more than a cup of coffee.

Teufel had been the Twins’ regular second baseman, yet the Mets were pretty well-set with Wally Backman. The thing is that Backman was a failed switch-hitter who was terrible from the right side, so the Mets figured they would be better off with a Teufel-Backman platoon and they were right. Teufel was never a star, but had a lot of key hits for the Mets, and was one of the quiet, unsung heroes of the team. This was clearly a good deal for the Mets and a gamble for the Twins that didn’t pay off. Not only did none of the prospects the Mets sent them help much, but Teufel’s successor at second base, Steve Lombardozzi, never amounted to much either.

So, this was a fairly low profile deal that turned out quite nicely for the Mets.

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