Position: RP B/T: R/R
Age: 30 (05/10/1994)

2024 Traditional Stats: 58 G, 49 1/3 IP, 4.38 ERA, 1.439 WHIP, 49 SO, 30 BB
2024 Advanced Stats: 101 ERA+, 22.8 K%, 14.0 BB%, 4.34 xERA, 5.23 FIP, 5.33 xFIP, 0.5 bWAR, -0.3 fWAR

Rundown

Lucas Sims was part of the trade that sent Adam Duvall from the Reds to the Braves, and he spent nearly all of his pre-free agency years in Cincinnati. He was solid with the Reds despite pitching in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. Somewhat bizarrely, Sims has posted much better numbers in Cincinnati, recording a remarkable 0.83 ERA in 2024 compared to his 4.38 ERA overall. Over his career, he has logged a 3.16 ERA in Cincinnati, significantly better than his combined 6.19 ERA elsewhere.

Although Sims has been a mainstay in the Reds’ bullpen, his career has been marred by injuries, particularly back issues from 2022 to 2024 and minor elbow problems from 2021 to 2022. These setbacks have limited him to surpassing 50 innings just once, in 2023, when he turned in the best numbers of his career. That year, Sims posted a 3.10 ERA and 151 ERA+ while holding opponents to a measly .163 batting average.

Unfortunately, Sims’ performance tailed off in 2024. Though he was, for the most part, healthy, Sims struggled after a mid-season trade. Through July, he recorded a solid 3.57 ERA in 43 innings, but after being traded to the Red Sox for a minor leaguer, he faltered, pitching to a dismal 6.43 ERA with Boston.

The biggest concern with Sims’ game has always been his ability to limit walks, especially when he doesn’t compensate for his poor control with higher strikeout rates. Most recently, Sims ranked in the first percentile for walk percentage (14%) while placing in the 49th percentile for strikeouts (22.8%). This strikeout rate is alarming, given Sims had previously been well above average in this area, striking out 32.2%, 39%, and 27.9% of opposing batters in 2019, 2021, and 2023 (his past full seasons). Sims remains exceptional at preventing hard contact, ranking among the top relievers in the game with an 85.4 mph average exit velocity. That’s in the 99th percentile — so despite his inflated 4.38 ERA in 2024, Sims still excelled at generating soft contact.

Contract

In 2024, Sims earned $2.85 million in his final arbitration year. Based on his strong performances in recent seasons, he’s due for a raise, though the amount will depend on how optimistic teams are about his ability to bounce back. Additionally, he’s only 31, so a multi-year deal is possible but far from certain.

Of the right-handed relievers who have already signed, Jacob Webb (one-year, $1.25 million), Jonathan Loáisiga (one-year, $5 million), and Jorge López (one-year, $3 million) are comparable players. However, each had quirks that contributed to their lower contracts. Webb had already been non-tendered, Loáisiga pitched only four innings last year, and López is just plain unreliable right now. While Sims is not necessarily superior to these pitchers, his long track record of results suggests he could exceed these deals, either by securing a longer deal with a similar average annual value or negotiating a more lucrative one-year deal.

Recommendation

Sims is a capable pitcher, and if the Mets can sign him on a team-friendly deal, it could be a smart move. If he can improve his strikeout numbers, he can effectively fill a similar role to Phil Maton or Ryne Stanek from last year. However, the Mets should be cautious about committing to a multi-year deal, given his 2024 regression.

The post Free Agent Profile: Lucas Sims, RP appeared first on Metsmerized.

Tanner Rainey, WAS

Rainey was amid a breakout when Tommy John prematurely ended his season. He has since receded to the backs of baseball fans’ memories and has been usurped by both Kyle Finnegan and Hunter Harvey in the back-end bullpen pecking order for the Nationals. While his walk rate is a bit above average, Rainey has strikeout stuff and throws very hard.  He’s under contract for two more seasons and would make for the perfect bridge to Edwin Diaz over those years. He has untapped potential and is finally healthy, and this could make for a savvy pickup that would solidify the back end and provide a more comforting alternative to Diaz when he isn’t available.

David Robertson. Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports

David Robertson, FA

Robertson had two stints with the Yankees, so why not have two with the Mets as well?  He was downright elite with the Mets last season but fell on hard times with the Marlins. He should still be viewed as one of the better setup options available, and if he isn’t upset at the Mets for trading him midseason, this reunion makes a lot of sense. Hopefully, tacking on a no-trade clause and having Diaz as the main guy out of the bullpen could make Robertson amenable to returning to Flushing.  While his ERA was unseemly with the Fish, his peripherals were not all that bad, and it would be hard to project Robertson for anything other than a solid season in 2024.

Ryan Brasier, FA

The 36-year-old former Red Sox pitcher has been randomly dominant at times. Those times include his stint in LA last season, where he pitched to a microscopic 0.70 ERA. While it would be foolish to expect that level of dominance from Brasier, he is better than he is recognized for and is a solid middle reliever as a worst-case scenario. Brasier still has a high-octane fastball, plenty of high-leverage relief experience, and should be considerably cheaper than most relievers with similar résumés. He’s had a successful career as a two-pitch reliever and added a third weapon with the Dodgers last season as he started throwing a cutter as well.  He is under the radar and should not be, which makes him one of the rare free agents who could be worth more than what he will be paid.

Keegan Thompson, CHC

After a stellar 2022, Keegan Thompson had a terrible time of it in ’23. Going into last season, Thompson was seen as a potential mid-rotation starter and now is on the outside looking in, in terms of the Cubs 2024 roster.  Additionally, Thompson has one more option remaining, so he can be a depth piece and shuttled between AAA and the majors all of next season. Thompson is still fairly young and has a robust repertoire. I think it would pay off to have him settle into a full-time relief role instead of constantly messing around with his workload. He has the potential to be a Seth Lugo type of reliever, which, as we know, is extremely valuable and is also controllable for a few more seasons.

Lucas Sims, CIN

Now one full year removed from Tommy John rehabilitation, Sims was once a rising bullpen star and may be primed to reach a new level of success next season. Sims had a fine season in 2023, but a bloated walk rate kept him from being dominant. His walk rate was significantly higher than his career numbers and it is known that some pitchers have struggled with command during their first year back from TJ. In 2021 Sims had elite peripherals and is one step away from the upper crust of dominant relief pitchers. He is also a free agent following the 2024 season and could be a prime trade candidate for the Reds, as their window for contention is only starting to open.

Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Robert Stephenson & Jordan Hicks, FA

Both Stephenson and Hicks have endured extended bouts of inconsistency during their big league tenures, and giving them $10-15M annually over 3-5 seasons is almost as wild as Hicks’ command. While these two pitchers both had excellent ’23 seasons, are fairly young and have tantalizing stuff, the contracts they are seeking are far from commensurate with their success at the big league level. This is, therefore, a very risky investment that could backfire.  They both have the potential to be top relievers, but paying them as such does not make much sense for the Mets, especially at this point of their expedited rebuild.

Brent Honeywell, FA

Honyewell wouldn’t be the first former prospect to evolve into a dominant reliever.  While he is a far cry from that and is closer to a borderline major leaguer at the moment, he most certainly still possesses the traits that once made him a top prospect.  If he can be unlocked, he could turn his career around.  He has a four-pitch mix and still throws mid-90s, with the right level of confidence, tutelage and health Honeywell could become an above-average reliever or better.

Matt Moore, FA

Under the radar excellence the last couple of seasons, Matt Moore has finally turned his career around and looks like a real weapon out of the bullpen. Similarly to Honeywell, Moore was once a top prospect for the Rays, who fizzled out due to bad performance and many injuries. Yet now, he’s put back-to-back quality seasons together and should be in line for a decently sized contract. He even lowered his walk rate to a personal best of 6.9%, throws hard from the left side and has had sparkling ERAs the last couple of seasons. What’s not to like here?

Nate Pearson, TOR

Once a top-10 prospect in all of baseball, Pearson succumbed to the injury bug early on in his career before making the full-time transition to relief in 2023. Still armed with a high-90s fastball, Pearson may be worth a flier.  He has obvious potential and had a solid, if not unspectacular, season in ’23. He is a high-octane back-end reliever waiting to happen and this seems like the perfect time to buy low.  Toronto has a very good bullpen and Pearson may not even be able to crack it.  A change of scenery in which he can forget about failing to materialize his former pedigree and focus on being a dominant reliever may be exactly what he needs.

Sam Hentges, CLE

If Hentges was the setup man for a big market team, he’d be on his way to stardom. Yet, playing in lowly Cleveland, his name is hardly recognizable. Hentges has asserted himself as one of the top setup men in baseball and may even be the reason the Guardians would consider moving on from all-star closer, Emmanuel Clase. I would assume the Guardians would be reluctant to move him, but it pays to ask, as I see him becoming a Zack Britton type very soon. He is my preference out of all the relievers I have gone through, but with his potential price tag being one of the Mets’ better prospects, it probably won’t work out. A left-handed reliever who’s been dominant at times, throws very hard, and has an elite groundball rate, Hentges would be a phenomenal get, especially because he is controllable until 2028.

Jason Adam, Colin Poche, Andrew Kittredge & Shawn Armstrong, TBR

The Rays have a smorgasbord of arms, and each one of these four pitchers may be available in the right deal. These four once-unheralded journeymen pitchers have all surpassed expectations with the Rays and have turned themselves into weapons out of the bullpen. Kittredge and Armstrong are both free agents after this season and will not be resigning with the Rays, making them ideal trade candidates. Poche and Adam both had a little more team control but are both arbitration-eligible, and the Rays could look to cut ties and bring in younger, more affordable options. Finding the right fit here is key, as some Rays relievers go on to have lots of success elsewhere while others cannot replicate that magic in their new haunts.  Asking price will also be of significance as the Rays may not be overly eager to move any of them for the sake of moving them.

Many other names could be of interest, like Josh Winder-MIN, Alex Speas-TEX, and Luis Ortiz-PIT, for example, as well as some others. All of whom are capable arms who have not been consistent enough to stay in the Major Leagues.  Teams are constantly cycling through solid if unspectacular pitchers, a handful of whom end up being quite useful to teams looking hard enough. Going through the vast number of these kinds of pitchers is exactly what Stearns and Co. have been up to so far, and I am excited to see them continue to add a couple more names to the growing list of bullpen candidates.

The post Mets Offseason Outlook Part III: Finding Relief Pitching Vol. 2 appeared first on Metsmerized.