MMO Fan Shot by Julio Rivera

Although there is much debate as to when Major League Baseball teams permanently switched from a 4-man to 5-man rotation, the man that is perhaps most largely credited for initially employing a standard that has lasted for over 50 years is none other than former Dodgers standout and Mets Hall of Fame Manager, Gil Hodges.

In the final months of the magical 1969 season, Hodges decided to give his 4-man rotation of Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman, Gary Gentry, and Don Cardwell, an extra bit of rest by running the marginally effective Jim McAndrew every 5^th day. Going into his start on August 2^nd McAndrew sported an ERA of 5.76. But Hodges had a hunch, and the rest is history. McAndrew would finish the regular season with an ERA of 3.47 by getting hot at the right time.

The results were legendary, and the unforgettable October of 1969 belonged to the Miracle Mets.

The team stormed through the playoffs with a 7-1 record (3-0 vs the Western Division Champion Atlanta Braves, 4-1 vs the American League Champion Baltimore Orioles) behind strong pitching that arrived in the postseason refreshed, in part due to the extra day of rest that the top of the rotation enjoyed in the home stretch of the regular season.

In the years after, mostly during the 1970s, 5-man starting rotations would become increasingly normalized, even as the role and responsibilities of the starter have changed, particularly in recent years. Yes, the horses of the past, names like former Met Nolan Ryan, and others of his generation routinely pitched into the 8^th and 9^th innings with nary a care for “pitch counts” and “innings limits.” Back in the days when all arms outside of Don Gullet’s and Tommy John’s (Pre-surgery) seemed to be bionic, pitchers were expected to take ownership of their turn in the rotation, and primarily log the innings that the franchise was depending on them for when their turn came up.

Now times have certainly changed, with the rise of elbow ligament injuries and the maxed-out fashion that pitches deliver their offerings.

Additionally, the out-of-control cost of starting pitching has also lent itself to holding back modern hurlers, who frankly, have not been conditioned to go 9 innings or throw 150 pitches.

So where does MLB go from here? The natural conclusion would be a move towards the installation of 6-man rotations across baseball, starting with the 2023 Mets.

Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The 1969 version of the Amazin’s were dealing with much younger starters at the top of the rotation than the current Mets will be running out there in 2023, as the 4 oldest projected starters for the team on Opening Day (Justin Verlander 40, Max Scherzer 38, Carlos Carrasco 36, Jose Quintana 33) will have an average age of 36.75 years, which is geriatric by MLB standards.

The projected 5^th man in that group, newly signed Japanese phenom Kodai Senga, will be on the wrong side of 30 on Opening Day, and is accustomed to pitching only once a week during his 11-year professional career in Japan.

That is an obvious recipe for disaster for the most expensive roster in Major League history. But of course, the naysayers will talk about how “gamers” like Verlander and Scherzer are accustomed to pitching every 5^th day, and that changing up that routine may affect their psyche. Well, tough! The fact is, even in his CY Young season last year, Verlander only threw 175 innings. During his previous 3 full seasons of play (2017 to 2019), Verlander averaged over 214 innings pitched per season. If you look at Max Scherzer you’ll find a similar decline, as in his last 3 seasons of over 30 starts (2016 to 2018), Mad Max averaged over 216 innings pitched per season. Max then averaged only 165 innings pitched per season over his last 3 full seasons, excluding the COVID year of 2020, including only 145 last year. These two pitchers will be a combined 78-years-old on opening day!

The likelihood is that this rotation does not possess an anchor that will throw over 200 innings next year. So, if they plan on making a deep run into the playoffs, the Mets are best off borrowing a page from the legendary Gil Hodges and thinking outside of the box for a method to keep their top starters fresh and not overworked for what will easily turn into a season of 36 or more starts, including the playoffs, in a 5-man rotation scenario.

So more simply stated, the Mets should squash the Cookie trade talk, insert former 1^st round draft pick David Peterson into the rotation, and once again lead the way in resetting the standard for starting rotations in MLB. Regardless of the Carlos Correa signing and other moves, the team will only go as far as the starting pitching takes it.

Julio Rivera is a business and media strategist, and Editorial Director for Reactionary Times. His writing, which is focused on cybersecurity, politics, and sports, has been published by numerous websites and he is regularly seen on national and international television.

The post Mets Created 5-Man Rotation, Now It’s Time For 6-Man Rotation appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Fanshot by Marc Epstein (Mystere2417)

“When Willie stepped on the field, it was like going to see Michael Jordan, Muhammad [Ali].”

That is the quote from the opening montage of the feature-length documentary “Say Hey, Willie Mays!” that stays with you as you become immersed in the life and career of the 91-year-old living baseball legend. The film, now streaming on HBO Max, will be of interest to baseball fans of all ages.

Lending credence and gravitas to the film is Willie himself, who appears in past and present interviews throughout the one hour and thirty-eight minute retrospective. Photos and videos of Willie shown In the film date back to his childhood, the Negro Leagues, his army days, his prime with the Giants, the team’s move from New York to San Francisco, and his trade to the Mets, which provide insight into his personal life and showcase his incredible baseball career. What comes through is his love for the game, his immense talent, his incredible power which yielded 660 home runs and yet was curtailed by his stint in the army and by the swirling winds during night games at Candlestick Park, and the purity of his exuberance during every play, AB, and base-running opportunity.

Viewers will hear from his son, Michael, as well as many famous players strewn throughout the film, including Juan Marichal, Orlando Cepeda, Tito Fuentes, and Reggie Jackson, as well as baseball announcers Bob Costas and the late Vin Scully. Some of the honors bestowed upon him after his career was over are covered, from Willie Mays Night at Shea Stadium back in 1973 to receiving the Presidential Medal of Freedom from President Obama in 2015.

But the most frequent, insightful, adoring, and enduring perspective comes from another all-time baseball great, Barry Bonds, who is prominently featured in the film and is also Willie’s godson. Barry’s father, Bobby Bonds, a Giant star himself, was Willie’s teammate, outfield partner, and friend. Barry grew up idolizing Willie and running around the clubhouse at Candlestick Park as a young boy. He was even mad at his father for hurting Willlie when the two collided in one of Willie’s greatest defensive plays.

Speaking of great defense, viewers will be treated to an analysis of the most well known defensive play of all-time, simply known as The Catch, made by Willie in Game 1 of the 1954 World Series at the Polo Grounds. With the score tied 2-2 in the 8th inning between the NY Giants and the Cleveland Indians, Willie raced deep towards the centerfield fence and made an incredible over-the-shoulder catch with his back to home plate in 6.5 seconds to rob Vic Wertz of a tie-breaking, bases clearing, extra-base hit, and his twirling throw back to the infield immediately afterward prevented the runners from advancing on the play. It was an early turning point which set the tone for the Giants winning that World Series

What the film unfortunately does not do is attempt to elicit Willie’s thoughts about modern baseball. It seems completely incongruous with Barry Bonds so prominently featured in the narrative that the topic of performance enhancing drugs and the steroid era of which Bonds was so prominently linked, would not come up even once in the film, apparently pre-determined by director Nelson George as off limits. Adding to the dichotomy is the video of Barry hitting his 660th career home run and the video of Willie asking to speak unscripted at the Giants ceremony retiring Barry’s number, pleading for Barry’s induction in the Hall of Fame.

Beyond Willie, the athlete, the documentary does an effective job contextualizing Willie, the man, within the times in which he lived. It gives viewers insight into how he approached his own super stardom, his role as a leader on and off the field, the prejudice and racial slurs he endured as a black man in segregated America, his unique and understated approach to advancing equality and helping minority ball players, as well as his controversial reticence to participate publicly in the Civil Rights movement.

A notable element of the film is that it doesn’t shy away from controversy even as it pays significant homage to his incredible five-tool talents. It delves into the discrimination he famously faced when he was denied the purchase of a house in San Francisco because neighbors didn’t want a black family living in their neighborhood. Willie was adamant about purchasing that home, which he eventually did after much drama, but the very public controversy exacted a personal toll on his marriage leading to divorce.

Willie was harshly criticized, and most notably called out by Jackie Robinson, the man who broke the color barrier four years before Mays was signed by the Giants, for not lending his fame to the Civil Rights movement. The documentary does a good job showing how Willie, in his own way, helped black and Latino ballplayers and contributed to public acceptance of racial tolerance and equality in a more personal and less public fashion.

Mets fans will not be disappointed when the story of Mays’ career switches from San Francisco back to New York due to the Giants inability to pay Mays’ salary any longer. Mets owner Joan Payson, former part-owner of the NY Giants and a huge Willie Mays fan, steps in and takes care of all the arrangements, giving Willie a veritable blank check to finish his career in NY after the 1972 trade, and even lured him back for one additional season, in 1973, which ended up extending all the way to Game 7 of the World Series. NY fans fully embraced his triumphant return to NY in the twilight of his career.

Images of Willie as a Mets player in the Game 2 of the World Series ranged from his troubles losing the ball in the sun and stumbling in the outfield, to pleading on his knees with the home plate umpire that he was wrong to call Bud Harrelson out trying to score, to his last hit, a game-winning RBI-single in the 12th inning, to his final speech on Willie Mays Night when he told Mets fans that “it was time to for Willie to say goodbye to America.”. The documentary ends fittingly with #24 being retired by the Mets at the first Old Timer’s Day at CitiField in 2022 (a game I attended with my son just as I had attended Willie Mays Night with my father almost 50 years earlier).

I give the documentary 4.5 out of 5 stars, deducting for the omission of steroids and the modern game from the narrative. But say hey, the focus is where it belongs, on Willie Mays himself, and that makes it a home run.

The post MMO Fan Shot: A Mets Fan’s Review of “Say Hey, Willie Mays!” appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Fan Shot by Roger Cormier

Dear Steven,

Congratulations on your recent purchase. I know you are going to break my heart. You are a Major League Baseball owner now, and that is what they do to Major League Baseball fans. It is part of the job description. I am not being cynical, just realistic.

But I do have some requests. It is really only one favor to ask, and it is a simple one to follow through on. I ask you, please don’t destroy our spirits in the brutally odd, specific ways your predecessors, Frederick and Jeffrey did.

I have read Jeffrey does not like you. This is a good start. After decades of Mets fandom however, I always wonder and endlessly speculate on who provides such juicy news nuggets and their relationship to the publication who disseminated the information. Maybe you put that out there. If so, I approve. It would prove you know what makes Met fans happy.

Now please don’t do this again. Attempting to control the narratives is a game your predecessors tried to play, a game they played far more often than the game of Putting the Best Baseball Team You Can on the Field. You would think after 10,000 hours of practice they would be decent at it. Malcolm Gladwell needs to print a retraction.

All you have to do is spend your money. On the team. The Yankees have about 20 members in their analytics department. The Mets have two? Hire nine of the Yankees 20 away from the Bronx. It would be symbolic and shrewd and hilarious.

I see you have six children. I am sure they are nice, intelligent young folks. Some might share your passion for baseball. Do not let them make baseball decisions.

Same goes for yourself. Hire baseball people to make baseball decisions. Find knowledgeable baseball people who aren’t all white dudes while you’re at it. A little diversity never hurts.

Beef up the scouting department. Or I should say create an MLB-caliber scouting department, then beef it up.

You got away with insider trading. Yes I know, S.A.C. Capitol Investors ended up with a $1.8 billion fine, and you were basically S.A.C. Capitol Investors, so maybe you feel like you didn’t “get away” with anything. But you avoided the slammer with the excuse you get so many emails in a day there’s no conceivable way you can read all of them, even the ones marked urgent.

You might have noticed some successful MLB teams used technology in nefarious ways over the last few years. You also might have noticed they got caught, and somehow heckled by fans during a season where no fans are allowed inside ballparks. Don’t tolerate those shenanigans. You won’t need to, because you spent money on scouting and player development and free agent talent, remember? It is not worth it.

Never say the Mets are snakebitten. Bad luck is the residue of Fred Wilpon. Luck is the residue of design and Steve Cohen, that one is on the house. You could print that down the third base line free of charge.

Did you have a favorite Met from the last decade who isn’t good at baseball anymore? That’s nice. Give him a call. Take him out to dinner. Just please don’t bring him back in a Met uniform.

Don’t ask fans to sign loyalty oaths.

If a player is injured, don’t make them play.

If a player is concussed, don’t let them on a plane.

Extend Michael Conforto. Do not say he is “a really good kid” but “not a superstar.” I will personally come after you if you do this. In fact, his new name is Superstar Scooter or Scooterstar.

Give Dominic Smith a hug (after you both get tested for COVID). Listen to what he has to say.

Give Mr. Met a raise. Whatever he’s making, it isn’t enough.

Save the Binghamton Rumble Ponies. And if you have time, Rowdy.

If your general manager and their lieutenants want to fire the manager, let them fire the manager.

Let your general manager and the rest of the front office know what the payroll is.

Don’t fire an executive for having a baby out of wedlock.

If you keep Brodie Van Wagenen around, make him apologize to every fifth chair he sees.

Tell James Dolan his band sucks.

Don’t be stingy with retiring numbers.

Open up a doggie day care during home games.

Let Ron sit.

Love the Mets and your fellow human beings with your heart, your soul, and your wallet. We will love you back.

Sincerely,

Roger Cormier

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Have something you want to say about the Mets? Share your opinions with over 25,000 Met fans who read this site daily. Send your Fan Shot to GetMetsmerized@aol.com.

The post MMO Fan Shot: An Open Letter to Steve Cohen appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Good Morning, Mets fans!

I’m speechless. About the Mets. Probably not a good thing for a writer, so here goes nothing.

The Mets were swept in a day-night doubleheader by the other New York team yesterday. Jared Hughes and Edwin Diaz couldn’t hold a five-run lead in the seventh inning. (You can’t believe you’re reading that sentence; I can’t believe I’m writing it.)

In the nightcap, the Mets were stifled by Deivi Garcia, who made his Major-League debut. With the game tied in the eighth inning, Drew Smith gave up a grand salami to Gary Sanchez.

Today’s the last day to trade players without placing them on waivers. The deadline is set for 4 p.m. EST; the teams are currently prepping to make their best package for a certain superstar whose name begins with “C” and ends with “Levinger.”

Latest Mets News

Today, the Mets are looking for some redemption in the form of Jacob deGrom (2-0, 1.80 ERA). deGrom will be matched by Trevor Rogers (0-0, 0.00 ERA), who will be making his second MLB start. The game will be at 1:10 p.m. and be shown on SNY.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic heard that the Mets are looking into Red Sox’s backstop, Christian Vazquez.

Meanwhile, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweeted out that the Mets are kicking the tires on trades involving starting pitchers, relievers, and catchers.

The Mets promoted Drew Smith and Franklyn Kilome to accommodate Dellin Betances‘ and Steven Matz’s IL placements

Latest MLB News

Jerry Dipoto inherited A.J. Preller’s body for a couple of hours yesterday, landing a plethora of Major-League talent. When the dust settled, he came away with Jason Castro, Austin Nola, Mitch Moreland, Austin Adams, and Dan Altavilla.

And they might not be done. Mike Clevinger is virtually a lock to be traded in the next couple of hours. The Padres, the Blue Jays, and the Braves all have interest in the right-hander with Atlanta willing to dangle outfielder Drew Waters in trade talks.

Dipoto, who can’t go one day without acquiring a player, orchestrated a seven-player deal with San Diego, receiving Taylor Trammell, Andres Munoz, Ty France, and Luis Torrens.

The Orioles parted ways with Mychal Givens, sending him to Colorado.

The Cubs’ newest position player is Jose Martinez. Their newest pitcher: old friend A.J. Ramos

The Rays are reportingly interested in Joey Gallo and Lance Lynn, however, the Rangers are putting high prices on the pair of stars.

The Diamondbacks are looking to move Starling Marte and Archie Bradley.

Latest NL East News

The Braves traded for old friend Tommy Milone.

Latest on MMO

James published a Fan Shot on how the Mets saved him.

Breaking: Matt Mancuso (the writer of this Morning Briefing) has been traded to Baseball Cloud in exchange for resume clout. Sources have confirmed to Ken Rosenthal this deal will transpire.

In all seriousness: For the time being, this is my last article on MMO. It’s been a privilege to write for this site for the last three years, but for the next couple of months, my work will appear on the Baseball Cloud blog. I really hope you all have enjoyed the small jokes that I’ve put in the Morning Briefings the last three years; it’s been fun writing them.

Glad to see the Mets gave me a send-off in the proper Metsian way yesterday.

On This Day in Mets History

Birthdays: Pat Howell (58), Ramón Ramírez (40), Hideo Nomo (53)

Signing off for now- Matt Mancuso

The post Morning Briefing: Trade Season Is Upon Us appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Fan Shot by Gabriel Pariente

Last week, the New York Mets announced that Seth Lugo who transformed himself from a starter to one of the best relievers in MLB over the past two seasons would be stretched back into being a starter for the rest of the 2020 season. Due to injuries to Micheal Wacha, David Peterson and the ineffectiveness of Steven Matz the idea with this move is to improve the Mets starting rotation which has struggled this year, and to help the Mets better compete in the NL East.

However, in spite of the fact that Lugo himself has campaigned to start and in his career he has been a pretty effective starter who helped the Mets make the playoffs in 2016 this move is very short-sighted and exposes the Mets to another major issue: Closing games.

This offseason, the Mets added Dellin Betances to their bullpen which includes Justin Wilson, Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia, Jared Hughes, Brad Brach, etc… While Justin Wilson has been for the most part very effective, there are still a lot of red flags with Familia, Betances and Diaz each of whom are supposed to be vital parts of the Mets bullpen. Betances’ who is coming back from an Achilles injury has struggled with his velocity and has had a few outings where he seemingly has no feel for his pitches. He currently has an era of 6.00, has over 45% of batters he’s faced this year and has been quite inconsistent.

Meanwhile, Jeurys Familia who was signed to a 3-year, $39 million deal before the 2019 season has hardly looked like the same man who saved almost 100 games for the Mets from 2015-2016. In 78 appearances over the past 2 seasons, he has walked 51 batters, and has given up 45 earned runs over that span as well. This translates to Familia giving up earned runs in almost 58% in games he has entered since he came back to the Mets in 2019, and a walk rate of over 65% in games he has entered in over that span.

From 2015-16, he had a walk rate of just over 32% in games he entered, and gave up earned runs in 24.7% of games he entered during those two seasons. He has been very unreliable and is certainly not someone who people should invest too much confidence in closing games or getting big outs.

Edwin Diaz who of course the Mets acquired in the infamous Kelenic deal has also been a shell of the closer who saved 57 games for Seattle back in 2019. While he has cut back on the number of home runs he’s allowed this year, he still has had trouble locating pitches and not giving up walks. He has walked 50.6% of batters he’s faced since he became a Met in 2019, and has been extremely mediocre in high-leverage situations. The Mets simply put do not have enough lockdown options in their bullpen to mitigate the absence of Seth Lugo, and this without factoring in his own numbers over the past 2 seasons.

Lugo appeared in 61 games last year where opponents hit .192 against him, he struck out nearly 59% of the batters he faced last season and had a WHIP of 0.75. He was the team’s best weapon in the 2nd half going multiple innings shutting down the opposition and could go multiple games a week doing this. Last season, in fact in the month of July, Lugo had an ERA of 0.00 and single-handedly almost brought the Mets back from the dead into playoff contention.By making him a starter, he first needs to be stretched out which will take a minimum of perhaps 3- 4 starts which would bring us to around mid-September where the season would nearly be over.

He also can only appear in games once a week, and at most for the time being only go 3-4 innings which limits his effectiveness to the team. Lugo will be on a pitch count limit while being stretched out, but he is also pitching with a partially torn Ulnar Collateral Ligament(UCL.) Any more injury to that area would force Lugo to undergo Tommy John surgery which takes almost a year to recover from, and the more pitches Lugo throws the chance of injury increases dramatically.

While Matz has been awful and injuries to Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman’s opt-out due to Covid-19 have damaged our starting rotation, fixing 1 area by weakening another is not the model of long-term success. It is a short-sighted attempt by the organization which only serves to cause more issues to the Mets in the future, something that is a staple sadly of the Wilpons’ tenure.

The Mets could instead utilize Franklyn Kilome who they acquired in the Asdrubal Cabrera trade who in spite of control issues, has potential as a starter and try to develop him as a back-end starter. But to risk Lugo’s career and to weaken a vital aspect of the team down the stretch to attempt to eat up innings is the definition of bad management and those responsible for these decisions need to be shown the door.

* * * * * * *

This Fan Shot was contributed by diehard Mets fan Gabriel Pariente

Have something you want to say about the Mets? Share your opinions with over 25,000 Met fans who read this site daily. Send your Fan Shot to GetMetsmerized@aol.com.

The post MMO Fan Shot: To Start Or Not To Start appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Fan Shot by Doug 

Who is the real Steven Matz?

Steven Matz is a 28-year-old left-handed starting pitcher for the New York Mets. Matz is a former 2nd round pick from Ward Melville High out on Long Island (I bet you never heard that before, right?).

Matz was an ever so slightly below average pitcher in 2019 (as measured by ERA+, barrel %, exit-velocity against, K%, spin, xwOBA against). And really, that’s basically who he’s been since he broke into the big leagues in 2015.

But I bet that I haven’t been alone in waiting and waiting, for the real Steven Matz to emerge from the abyss of mediocrity. Maybe it’s that Matz garnered much ballyhoo as he carved up the upper minor leagues from 2014-2015, consistently drawing plus grades from scouts on his fastball and changeup, and landing him atop various versions of the Mets prospects lists that we all agonize over. 

Maybe it’s because Matz actually still looks the part. Matz still averaged 93.3 mph on his two-seam fastball in 2019, cresting as high as 96 mph, and when he wasn’t having his occasional ‘knocked-out-in-the-second-inning’ blow up, he generally could be counted on to acquit himself well on the mound more times than not. 

But, Matz hasn’t quite been able to shake the label that perhaps something is still missing. Some have suggested a mental component. Matz’s mound demeanor is not stoic, especially when trouble brews on the basepaths. Al Leiter, another mercurial lefty from Mets days of yore, worked with Matz last spring, and perhaps, strictly anecdotally and loosely observationally speaking, they succeeded in helping Matz to stay focused on the mound.

Still, here we are. The numbers don’t lie. So I took a look at the underlying data to try and answer those lingering questions: who is the real Steven Matz? Why has he not broken out? Is there another step forward in his career progression?

The first thing that everyone needs to understand about Matz is that he’s not the bat-missing, overpowering, archetype of modern preference. Matz doesn’t throw a four-seam fastball at all. His two-seamer spins at a very modest 2100 rpm, and at its particular velocity, really cannot compete well for swings and misses in the upper part of the strike zone. Matz also does not own a particularly high-spin breaking ball either (his highest spin pitch is his curveball, which spins at approximately 2440 rpm and features more horizontal movement than the drop that is typically desired).

Matz does have some things going for his two-seamer. Because it rotates on a roughly 10 o’clock spin axis, the pitch gets an above average amount of armside run. While sitting 93 mph with the heater is only major league average these days, Matz’s quick, short-arm delivery hides the pitch well. Coupled with the late horizontal movement in on left-handed batters, and off to the end of the bat against right-handed batters, it’s a legitimate foundation.

Matz’s next best weapon is his changeup…or is it?

The most interesting thing that I turned up during my deep-dive on the Baseball Savant and Brooks Baseball websites, is not only how effective Matz’s curveball was last year, but against whom, and why.

Matz’s curveball in 2019 was easily his most effective breaking pitch. Check out the following for each pitch type for Matz in 2019:

Changeup – xwOBA against: .408

Slider – xwOBA against: .300

Curveball – xwOBA against: .228

Breaking pitches are designed to miss bats. Here’s how well each pitch fared last season:

Changeup – Whiff %: 27.1%

Slider – Whiff%: 19.7%

Curveball – Whiff%: 26.6%

So, while Matz could still get lots of whiffs on his plus changeup (which offers both above average arm-side fade and tumble, and a has good velocity separation from his fastball of 9 mph differential), it turns out that it got hit pretty hard last season when contact was made. Batters slugged .510 against the changeup, higher than any of his other pitches.

But the curveball, which spins less and drops less than major league average, was very effective at missing bats and minimizing damage. How can that be?

It turns out that the answer likely lies in the idea of pitch tunneling, or spin mirroring, put another way. The basic idea behind this is that batters can read the seams on pitches as the pitch is in motion. Even though the ball is spinning fast enough to be a blur, if each type of pitch spins in a unique direction from other pitches in the arsenal, the batter can pick up on which way the seams are moving. This skill of reading spin varies by hitter, but generally is a decision that needs to be made by a certain point in the ball’s flight. If a pitcher is able to have his fastball and his curveball look like they are spinning in the same direction, the batter cannot make this read until it is too late.

How does this relate to his curveball?

Well, it turns out that Matz’s two-seam fastball, which as mentioned earlier spins on a roughly 10 o’clock spin axis (just picture the direction the hour hand points on a clock when it reads 10:00; that hour hand is the axis around which the baseball spins) is actually precisely calculated by Brooks Baseball as an average of 122°. It turns out that Matz, on average, spun his curveball last year with a 306° direction, which equates to a difference of 184° between the two pitch types.

This is what is referred to as pitches that mirror each other’s spin, where 180° differential between two pitch types is considered the ideal mirror. Matz’s fastball and curveball, according to this data, should read out of his hand like the same pitch, until of course, the curveball breaks its plane of movement. 

Perhaps the real Steven Matz is a fastball-curveball wizard after all?

Not so fast. 

Matz’s curveball showed stark splits against batters hitting from different sides of the plate. While extremely effective breaking down and in on right-handed batters, the pitch was completely ineffective against batters from the left side. Lefties slugged a garish .733 off of the pitch, hit a Ted-Williams-esque .400 against it, and whiffed on it only 9.8% of the time.

So naturally, Matz stopped throwing it to lefties right? 

Not really. Matz actually threw more curves to left-handed hitters (17% of the time) than his slider (13.8%) or changeup (10.6%), despite the pitch underperforming those other off-speed offerings by a large margin. 

Matz actually threw his curve to right-handed hitters less often (14.3% of the time), despite getting far-superior outcomes compared to the damage lefties inflicted (only .365 slugging, a .188 batting average, and 13.3% whiff rate, second only to his changeup). So perhaps we’ve discovered an area of pitch selection that could use some re-tinkering.

Let’s try to put all the pieces to the Matz puzzle together, now that we’ve found some interesting but maybe imperfect fits.

The running, deceptive fastball doesn’t miss bats or generate ground balls at above average rates. More of a traditional two-seamer than a sinker, Matz is particularly prone to the home run ball against righties with it when he gets it up, as it lacks vertical movement, and hitters do not have too much trouble getting on top of it. The best outcomes for this type of pitch would seem to be precise work on the lower quadrants of the strike zone. Matz does boast slightly above average ability to pound the shadow zones, or edges of the strike zone, but this does not leave much margin for error. A little too often, loud fly ball contact is made against Matz’s two-seamers and changeups that are left up. 

The two most effective weapons are his changeup, which I theorize he under-employed against lefties last year, as they only hit .235 against it, and his curveball, which he under-employed against righties. The former generates whiffs from above average movement, the latter from an ideal angle of spin compared to the fastball. Could it be that the pieces of Matz, the pitcher, are actually there, and if they can fit together a little better, the realization of the mid-rotation stalwart that many envisioned could finally come to fruition?

Will the real Steven Matz please stand up?

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This Fan Shot was contributed by diehard Mets fan Doug.

Have something you want to say about the Mets? Share your opinions with over 25,000 Met fans who read this site daily. Send your Fan Shot to GetMetsmerized@aol.com.

The post Fan Shot: Who is The Real Steven Matz? appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Happy Holidays to all of our wonderful readers and thank you for making MMO the incredible Mets community it is today.

It’s pretty amazing to have such a passionate group of Mets fans all gathered in one place where there is a free exchange of opinions and ideas. We wouldn’t be here without you!

Also a big thank you to all our writers and editors, who work so hard to provide this site with an endless stream of accurate reporting and original articles all aimed to keep the Mets conversation going throughout the entire year. It’s such a pleasure to have all of you on the MMO team!

Since day one, our goal has always been to create a Fan Site that truly represented a broad section of the fan base and where all opinions had value.

Thanks to the thousands of you who visit this site each day, we have succeeded and together we’ve created something truly special here at MMO.

I’ve often referred to all of you as part of my amazing extended family and I truly mean that.

Thank you, and a very Merry Christmas to all of you.

I
wish
you all
the joy, hope
and happiness of
this Holiday Season!
On behalf of everyone at
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An MMO Fan Shot By Dean Price

The Mets currently have a glaring hole in center field and there are few difference-making free agents on the market. As Brodie will need to ‘think outside the box’ because the luxury tax threshold is apparently made with steel-reinforced concrete, I propose that the Mets acquire Byron Buxton.

A former number 1 ranked prospect and 2017 Gold Glove winner, Buxton had a great 2019 by cutting his strikeout rate to a tolerable 23.1%, increasing his Z-Swing percentage to 76.4%  and posting a career high slugging percentage of .513 last year. The real attraction though is Buxton’s elite defense. He managed 10 defensive runs saved, per Fangraphs metrics, in just 87 games last year and could actually improve if he got better jumps.

Buxton isn’t necessarily a natural defensive whiz, but he’s able to defend so well because of his blazing speed and that speed plays on the base paths. Over a full season Buxton should easily swipe 30 bags which will benefit a lead-footed Mets team which finished 29th in terms of BsR last year. I’m sure Nimmo and McNeil, not to mention the Mets great group of hitting pitchers, will appreciate a hitter in the bottom third of the line-up who can fly round the bases.

There is also the added attraction of Buxton being predicted to make just $3M next year and having two further years of team control. The remaining years won’t be cheap but the Mets have money coming off the books at the end of next season so can easily afford it.

Buxton is injury prone, but if needed Nimmo could revert back to center field, and while Buxton’s healthy putting J.D Davis in left field becomes a viable option. It suits the Mets current roster perfectly as a cast of characters like Brown, Davis and Cespedes (let me dream) can pinch hit for Buxton in games the Mets are chasing.

Take a quick look at the Twins rotation on any depth chart and you’ll see that Jose Berrios is awfully lonely atop it. So Noah Syndergaard, who himself has plenty of unfulfilled potential to dream on, should appeal to the Twins. Having signed deGrom to a long-term deal we have our ace of the future so I’d be looking to keep Stroman and let Noah, who is arguably the grumpiest of an admittedly not grumpy at all clubhouse, leave at the end of 2021. At the same time, Buxton is not necessarily needed by the Twins as they have Max Kepler on a ridiculously team-friendly deal to man center field.  

Trading Syndergaard could also allow the Mets to pickup a useful bullpen arm like Trevor May, and/or an interesting prospect who is nearly major league ready like SP Jhoan Duran.  

Of course if Noah is willing to sign a long-term contract extension at a discount, and he has indicated that he’s worried about the state of the free-agent market, then this all changes. Having shed Syndergaard’s $9.9M salary for 2020 the Mets should have an extra $6-7M in pocket money to pickup a reliable starter off the free agent market and will look for more balanced as a result of these moves.

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This Fan Shot was contributed by MMO reader Dean Price. Have something you want to say about the Mets? Share your opinions with over 20,000 Met fans who read this site daily.

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An MMO Fan Shot by Ron Henry.

In the last article I wrote for MMO, I discussed how I thought our new front office was accumulating depth as a way of generating a better offensive and defensive profile using regular platooning in four somewhat standard lineup formations.

While maybe not the big free agent splash some hoped for, I noted that a balanced roster with sufficient depth can provide offense above average, and though it was missed in my last post (sorry!), here is the plate appearance projection of that exercise that would estimate the Mets to have a
top-7 offense or so based on last year’s results:

That’s a 10% improvement in team offense over last year’s middle of the pack squad, not including any contributions from Yoenis Cespedes or trade acquisitions, and assuming no major injuries. It’s a good start. This time around, I’d like to turn an analytical focus to the other side of the ball and see where some strategic recommendations from a more statistically driven front office might drive the Mets to a few more wins.

With a revamped bullpen and three bona-fide studs (I’m all-in on Zack Wheeler), there’s definitely an element of plug and play here – just let those guys do their thing and assume the bullpen won’t stick them with nearly as many tough luck losses this year. No – the marginal improvements are likely to come from thinking about the back end of our rotation and what can be done to bridge the gap between our trifecta of right-handed aces. And that’s where the idea of the “Opener” comes in.

For those unfamiliar with the idea of the Opener, the concept is fairly simple and currently en vogue due to some success the Rays and then a few copycat teams had last year. Instead of a traditional starter, bring in a reliever to start a game and get a few outs before giving way to a more traditional non-elite starter, reducing the likelihood that the starter must face the other team’s best hitters (near the top of the lineup) more than twice, when they might be less effective.

Digging deeper, the following are three reasons why I think the Mets would be in an excellent position to consider using an opener for many of Jason Vargas’ starts in 2018.

1. You generally want to use it with a LEFT-HANDED starter whose effectiveness wanes when facing hitters multiple times. Handedness matters here because you want the opener to be opposite- armed to take advantage of a lineup skewed towards one platoon side and also, righty swingmen are much more prevalent.

That leaves us with Steven Matz and Jason Vargas as options. Courtesy of Baseball Reference, here are their career (and 2018) OPS totals given up based on times through the line-up, ignoring a minimal amount of 4th time through the line-up:

Looking at Steven Matz, his profile strikes you as a pitcher not terribly affected by the “third time through the line-up” penalty. If anything, Matz seems to get stronger as the game goes on, and his relative youth means this skill is unlikely to fall off in short order.

Jason Vargas, on the other hand, profiles as an aging starter whose effectiveness dissipates each time a hitter sees him. The issue was exacerbated last year, when he gave up a ridiculous 1.037 OPS when facing a batter for a third time. Due to his age and historical profile, I think the days of a competitive team expecting Vargas to face more than 18 batters is over.

But let’s also not be hasty and write off Vargas as a sunk cost. Look at that last column. Though in their career Matz has been a better pitcher, if you only look at the first and second pass through the lineup, Vargas has actually been 10 points better in OPS. Even in his admittedly terrible 2018, he was only a few points worse than Matz when limited to facing batters only twice.

The data highlights that Vargas can still be a relatively effective innings eater as a fifth starter, as long as he is not expected to go more than four-to-five innings.

Ed Delany/MMO

2. The Mets retooled their bullpen so that arguably their three best arms to close out games are Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia, and Justin Wilson. The two best remaining arms in the pen are Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman, who both share the same three interesting traits:

• They are right-handed without a firm bullpen role moving forward
•  They have almost no platoon split (Lugo .689 v RHB/.673 v LHB; Gsellman .746 v RHB/.744 v
  LHB)
• They are both converted starters with the ability to pitch multiple innings

Along with a few other interesting names like Kyle Dowdy, the Mets are likely to have 2-3 righty arms at all time to soak up innings in middle relief. Given that we have already established a maximum of roughly 5 innings for Jason Vargas (and often times 4), it is clear that the Mets will often need 2-3 innings of relief just to bridge to the back of the bullpen. KNOWING that those relief innings will be needed, there is an inherent advantage in using them to start the game as opposed to in the middle of the game.

Why? Because of the roster constraints of 25 men and players removed from play after being substituted for, a manager can take advantage of a high run-scoring probability in the 5th/6th innings via a pinch hitter to take a lead or salt away a game. In the first 3 innings, a manager would have to willingly burn a starting player for the chance at one good at-bat – a move almost no manager is willing to make. This means a righty “opener” can often face a righty-heavy lineup without fear of a crucial pinch hitter popping up if he gets into trouble, as is common in the 5th inning and later.

Lastly, because of their lack of platoon splits and ability to go multiple innings, either Lugo or Gsellman would be well-suited to come in and not just pitch the first inning, but potentially go 2 or even 3 innings based on their effectiveness and the output of the Mets offense (see the next point). Because of their similar characteristics, Manager Mickey Callaway has some flexibility on prior days to not feel he has to “reserve” one of these arms as there is a good chance one of them is on enough rest to throw 40-50 pitches if needed at Vargas’ turn in the rotation, so there should be minimal impact to bullpen health. It doesn’t hurt that the next turn in the rotation should typically fall to Jacob deGrom, who typically goes deep into games and provides some bullpen relief.

3. The Mets offense is likely to hurt when Jason Vargas is pitching. What? I’ll repeat that — The Mets offense is likely to hurt when Jason Vargas is pitching. Why? Well, it’s not because Jason Vargas is so spectacularly bad at hitting. In looping back to the ideas about leveraging a defensive line-up that plays to the Mets starter’s strength, it was revealed that the worst “standard” lineup was vs. lefties (no surprise), but especially if there is a flyball pitcher on the mound. Every other Mets starter has a groundball/flyball ratio of 1.39 or better.

Jason Vargas has a career 0.89 GB/FB ratio – in other words, he is an extreme flyball pitcher, and also one that pitches to contact (read: more balls in play – more FLYBALLS in play). That means the Mets may need one or both of Juan Lagares and Keon Broxton out there to adeptly shag deep flies, which is projected to be a bit of a drain on the offensive output (vs. the likes of Conforto, Nimmo, and McNeil).

One final way to goose up the offense when Vargas pitches is by avoiding the first pitcher at-bat in the lineup. The last heretofore untapped potential of the opener strategy is a feature in the National League only, where teams regularly give away 2 of their first 18 at-bats in the form of a pitcher. By relying on an opener like Lugo or Gsellman to go 2 or 3 innings, the Mets could pull them from the game when the pitcher spot is due up in the order and use a pinch hitter in all but the most unlikely run-creating offensive situations (i.e. 2 outs, no RISP) to effectively create a DH on the first pass through the line-up and generate more run support.

Even in situations where the timing does not work well, and Vargas is called into the game in relief in the middle of an inning, the new Mets depth chart is now bursting with versatility. It is not hard to imagine scenarios in which the Mets 8-9-1 or 9-1-2 hitters are due up next when Vargas comes into the game. Such situations will now be ripe for a double switch where guys like Jed Lowrie and Jeff McNeil move around the diamond without giving up much defensively. In a game where there are typically only around 36 at-bats, converting even one from basically a guaranteed out to league average output can make a lot of difference. And as has already been discussed, the Mets have the exact kind of depth and defensive versatility on the bench to support that kind of move.

That’s it in a nutshell. In an ideal world, the Mets have the budget to go get the best starter on the market and plug him into the fifth starter’s role. But in lieu of that, it makes a lot of sense to selectively leverage some “small-market” strategies to squeeze a little more out of the roster.

Additionally, there are some unconfirmed rumors that some of the lower level minor league Mets affiliates have started experimenting with using an opener and that the strategy could begin to translate to the major league squad. Why not here and why not now? While I’m not advocating that the Mets should use the Opener in every game Vargas is slated to pitch, I think it makes a lot of sense when Lugo and Gsellman are well rested and/or the game is either right before or after a day off. I think it’s also a selective tool to use against rival teams where a game up in the standings seems to count twice as much (think: Nationals, Braves, Phillies, Cardinals, Cubs, Brewers).

Over the course of the season, it may only amount to a mathematical difference of 1 or 2 wins. But this year, in this division, it might just be the win or two that gets the Mets into the playoffs. LGM.

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This Fan Shot was contributed by MMO community member and die-hard Mets fan Ron Henry. Have something you want to say about the Mets? Send your article to GetMetsmerized@aol.com or use this Contact Form. Or ask us about becoming a regular contributor.

The post MMO Fan Shot: Could Opener Help Mets? appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

An MMO Fan Shot by @kengiffyjr

Everyone knows Bullpens are extremely important. But I set out to determine HOW important, and whether there was any correlation between a team’s Bullpen WAR and the overall team’s wins. This offseason Brodie had a tall task, improving the offense, its depth, and more. But one of the boxes he needed to check on the top of his To Do list from the get go – completely revamping this bullpen after their horrible 2017/2018 campaigns. Now that the dust has settled and the main pieces of the pen is seemingly locked, let’s dig in.

First, let’s tackle that “importance” question. The chart below contains all Bullpen Performances for every team over the last 4 seasons. The plot points that are labeled are the 40 teams that made the playoffs. As I dug in, an interesting pattern started to develop…case in point, here’s the average Bullpen WARs and the average Team Wins across the 2015-2018 seasons:

Over 5.0 Bullpen WAR = 90 wins

4.0 – 5.0 = 85 wins
3.0 – 4.0 = 83 wins
2.0 – 3.0 = 76 wins
1.0 – 2.0 = 74 wins
Under 1.0 = 72 wins

Now there were certainly outliers here and there, i.e. teams that had well above average bullpens but were seemingly really poor everywhere else that their team wins were still low, like the 2018 Padres (8.7 WAR but just 66 Wins.)  On the other end of the spectrum, there were also a few teams like the 2018 Indians that had an unusually low Pen performance but were so strong elsewhere (0.4 WAR but 91 Wins.)  But those outliers were few and far between, and the pattern started to get more and more interesting.

Some notable stats from the chart as we try to find that magic bullpen WAR number:

Over the past 4 seasons:

• Only 3 teams out of 40 had a Team Bullpen WAR under 2.0 and made the playoffs.
• If your bullpen had a WAR of 3.0 and above, you made the playoffs 50% of the time.
• If your bullpen had a WAR of 4.0 and above, you made the playoffs 54% of the time.
• If your bullpen had a WAR of 4.5 and above, you made the playoffs 69% of the time.

So before we dig into the 2019 Pen and what’s needed for each member, let’s take a look back:

Mets Bullpen Usage and WAR from 2015–2018

Mets 2015 – 3.5 BULLPEN WAR (13th in MLB), 90 TEAM WINS, 455 BULLPEN INNINGS PITCHED

2015 Toplines

Positives:

• Familia stepped into the closer run and ran with it, pitching a dominant 78 innings.
• Between Gilmartin, Goeddel, Carlos Torres, Robles and Other (comprising of 5+ relievers that pitched under 10 IP) they had a solid 2.2 WAR and accounted for 56% of the relief innings pitched.

Negatives:

• 20% of Innings pitched (Alex Torres, Tyler Clippard and Bobby Parnell) had a negative WAR, -0.4 WAR average.
• Only one reliever with a 1.0 WAR and above.

Mets 2016 – 6.2 BULLPEN WAR (4t in MLB), 87 TEAM WINS, 520 BULLPEN INNINGS PITCHED

2016 Toplines

Positives:

• 45% of the usage came from Reed, Familia and Robles, which had a whopping 5.6 WAR total.
• The Mets were 1 of only 2 teams with 2 relievers above the 2.0 WAR mark.

Negatives:

• 21% of usage with negative WAR (Bastardo, Verrett, Henderson), but just -0.2 average.

Mets 2017 – 0.8 BULLPEN WAR (28th in MLB), 70 TEAM WINS, 565 BULLPEN INNINGS PITCHED

2017 Toplines

Positives:

• Blevins and Reed each were near the 1.0 WAR mark while pitching under 50 innings.

Negatives:

• The reliever that pitched the most innings in 2017 was Paul Sewald (he was actually decent though with 0.6 WAR.)
• Familia only pitched 24.2 innings (injury)
• Robles went south and was awful (-0.4 WAR across 56.2 innings.)
• Nearly 50% of the IP had a negative WAR.

Mets 2018 – NEGATIVE 0.6 BULLPEN WAR (28th in MLB), 77 TEAM WINS, 547 BULLPEN INNINGS PITCHED

2018 Toplines

Positives:

• Seth Lugo.
• Familia had another stellar 1.1 WAR across only 40 innings.
• Gsellman was a workhorse (80 IP) but amassed just a 0.3 WAR.
• Some newcomers (namely Drew Smith and Bashlor to a degree) showed promise.

Negatives:

• Hansel Robles, Anthony Swarzak, and AJ Ramos had a negative 1.3 WAR between the three of them.  Yikes.
• Blevins regressed from his strong 2017.
• Newcomers Rhame and Peterson were not good (-0.8 WAR between the two.)
• Once again over 50% of the IP had a negative WAR.

2019 Outlook

So let’s use that 4.5 Bullpen WAR magic number.  The one where if you achieved that number over the past 4 seasons you made the playoffs 69% of the time.  Let’s look at the keys to get there for each key piece of the bullpen.  Two quick notes: One, WAR for relievers includes a leverage component so the closers/late inning relievers are going to be impacted accordingly for that higher Leverage Index.  And Two, health is obviously the biggest component, which is not factored into the outlook/forecast below.

• Edwin Diaz – Over the last 3 season with the Mariners, he’s averaged 64 innings pitched and a 2.1 WAR per season. 1 assumes he regresses a little from his 3.5 (!) historic season last year.  Projections are also pegging him at 2.1, so let’s go with that number – 65 innings, 2.1 WAR.
• Jeurys Familia – His WAR will be impacted by his new setup role. Over his last 3 full seasons (taking out 2017), he’s logged an average of 76 IP.  Projections have him at a solid but not outstanding 1.0 WAR.  Remember that Addison Reed netted a 2.5 in 2016 and 0.9 (in only 49 innings) in 2017 in the setup role.  I’m going to bump him up a little – 70 innings, 1.3 WAR.
• Seth Lugo – Had a 1.2 WAR for just his reliever role last year where he pitched 78 innings in relief. Don’t think they’ll use him as much, and his Leverage Index may dip a little as he’s used in a variety of situations.  Projections have him at only 0.4 (in 60 IP), which is conservative.  I’m going with – 70 innings, 0.7 WAR.
• Justin Wilson – Recently signed Wilson is more than just a LOOGY. Over the past 3 seasons he’s averaged 56 IP and a 0.9 WAR, with last year being his worst at a 0.5.  Projections have him at only 40 IP and a 0.3.  I think Mickey should use him more often than these projections – 55 IP, 0.5 WAR.
• Robert Gsellman – Gsellman is the toughest to predict due to his up and down 2018. He was used all over the bullpen last year since he was one of the only two serviceable guys for a while.  Based on his splits he thrived more in high leverage situations (FIP was a 3.25 in these situations vs. 4.21 in low/medium) which makes the idea of using him and Wilson in the 7^th based on matchups a good plan on paper.  Projections have him at a 0.2 across 60 innings.  He likely won’t get to the 80 IP like last year – 65 innings, 0.2 WAR.
• Luis Avilan/Daniel Zamora – This second lefty role will be more of a LOOGY. Over the last 3 years, Avilan has averaged a 0.7 WAR across an average of 37 innings.  Zamora was solid last year across 9 IP (0.2 WAR.)  Projections for guys who pitch less than 40 IP are always low (Fangraphs has them both at a 0.0.)  Based on past performance and the fact that this will be a healthy competition to see who wins the job (and thus have some depth in case one falters), I’ll peg them at – 35 innings, 0.3 WAR.
• The Rest – Let’s tally up the IP above and the average amount of Bullpen IP across the last 4 years. 360 IP for the above 6/7.  Previous 4-year average was 522.  So that’s still 160 IP unaccounted for.  Which makes Bullpen depth perhaps one of the most important pieces of all.  And their depth is decent – between young guys like Smith, Bashlor and Ryder Ryan (and possibly Villines soon) and new pickups Dowdy, Lockett and Santiago, the Mets will be able to play around with some options.  Some of these guys will certainly produce a negative WAR (especially since a lot of this will be low leverage mop up and long man duty), but if Mickey can use them wisely and they can avoid overusing the really bad performers (like Alex Torres in 2015 and Robles and Swarzak in 2018), it can go a long way.  Let’s go 160 innings (30% of usage), negative 0.1 WAR.

FINAL TALLY: 522 INNINGS, 5.0 WAR.

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This Fan Shot was contributed by MMO community member and die-hard Mets fan @kengiffyjr. Have something you want to say about the Mets? Send your article to GetMetsmerized@aol.com or use this Contact Form. Or ask us about becoming a regular contributor.

The post MMO Fan Shot: Bullpen WAR Correlation to Team Wins appeared first on Metsmerized Online.