by Jack Hendon
The offseason hasn’t officially started, though for the Mets’ front office and fanbase, absence from the playoffs leaves them with ample time to plan for a more successful 2020. The to-do list has its share of vacancies to fill, from Zack Wheeler‘s spot in the starting rotation all the way down to the empty seat in the manager’s office. Capitalizing on their newfound offensive core would also inevitably call for tying down loose ends in the bullpen and on defense in center field, but preserving the things that went right likely won’t be enough to upstage either the Atlanta Braves or Washington Nationals next season. Put another way, getting back to good enough should not be treated as a good enough effort.
Perhaps the position that best exemplifies this problem is catcher, where Wilson Ramos, despite posting the highest single-season wRC+ (105) for a Met backstop since Paul Lo Duca in 2006, also poses his share of challenges on the defensive side. His -13 DRS and 15% caught-stealing rates were (respectively) the lowest and second-lowest NL figures at the position in 2019, and he’s allowed the third-most passed balls in the NL across the last two years. Ramos’ -11.5 frame rating since 2017 is 45th among 61 qualified catchers across the majors, and his 14.3% zone-ball percentage was second-worst in the NL behind Pittsburgh’s Elias Diaz (min. 7,000 pitches). His woes behind the dish were greater than just blocking and throwing, and the Mets’ pitching staff struggled to adjust to more conservative strike zones as a result.
Once blessed with choices among a combination of top-notch framers in Travis d’Arnaud, Kevin Plawecki, Rene Rivera, and Tomas Nido across the last three years, the starters were forced to ride out the shakeup on the back of Ramos’ offensive upside. WPA from 2018 to 2019 fell off a cliff (5.88 to -1.78) while wild-pitch count doubled from 11 to 22. Three of the team’s more disappointing arms this season – Noah Syndergaard, Edwin Diaz, and Robert Gsellman – all had considerably better numbers pitching to Nido, with the former going so far as to request he pitch to Nido more regularly. Unlike a center fielder, who sees five or six chances to make plays on a busy day, the catcher has a say in virtually every pitch, both in planning and execution, and Ramos’ lackluster defense was an issue that affected game outcomes beyond fundamental errors.
Of course, there’s a reason Ramos caught over 1,000 innings in his debut season, and it’s the same reason why he finished with the 10th-highest bWAR on the team: he hit. His 26-game streak through the summer made for one of the better stories on the team altogether, and he finished fourth on the team with 73 RBI – the most by a Met catcher in one season since 2002, when Mike Piazza drove in 98. Given how seldom the Mets have had an offensively valuable catcher in their lineup, it’s understandable why Ramos would get a pass, especially on a team that finished the season with 86 wins. But even his merits as a hitter are lacking, to an extent.
Ramos batted .288/.351/.416 with 14 homers and a career-low 13.2% strikeout-rate, but his isolated power (ISO) was just .129 – a drop of nearly 30 points from his standard measures the prior three years. His weighted on-base average (wOBA) stood at a below-average .327 (the 24-point dropoff from his on-base percentage was his worst since 2012). Equally alarming, Ramos’ groundball rate rose to 62.4% (also his highest since 2012), a suboptimal development when you realize he had the game’s fourth-worst sprint speed (according to Statcast).
The Mets knew what kind of bat they were getting when they invested in Ramos, and his .768 OPS was pretty consistent with his career .758 mark. Ultimately, though, the more commonly-accepted numbers are being propped up by more lukewarm hitting metrics, and even Ramos’ offensive upside draws its share of questions. He’s coming up on the second year of a two-year, $19MM contract signed last winter (with a $10MM option for 2021), but his spot on the roster shouldn’t be safe if the Mets are intent on polishing things up ahead of 2020.
Again an available free agent and again a superior option behind the plate, switch-hitter Yasmani Grandal would be a considerable upgrade over Ramos from an offensive standpoint. He hit .246/.380/.468 in his debut season with the Milwaukee Brewers, making for a career-high .848 OPS while launching 28 homers en route to his fourth-straight season of 20-plus dingers. Across the past three seasons, Grandal has a commanding advantage in walk-rate (13.5% to 7.4%) ISO (.220 to .159), and hard-hit rate (41.2% to 34.6%). It also helps his case that Grandal has cracked 125 games four straight years, while Ramos has managed to stay as healthy three times in his 10-year career.
This doesn’t even take into account Grandal’s abilities as one of the very best defensive backstops in the game: even in a down-year in terms of DRS (just 1 in 2019 after averaging 13 a year from 2016-18), he had the second-highest outside-strike percentage in the league (9.7%). Grandal’s 17 framing runs above average (per Fangraphs) was the second-best in the majors behind Austin Hedges. The Brewers allowed the fourth-most stolen bases in 2018 behind the Tigers, Angels, and Mets. Grandal’s 27 runners caught stealing, however, was the most among catchers on any of the four teams.
Signing a catcher of Grandal’s caliber would typically be a challenge for a team swimming as closely to the luxury tax as the Mets have been, though the current free agent economy could likely work to their benefit here. Wins above replacement in 2019 and 2018 overlap rather closely between Baseball Reference and Fangraphs. As the case was between Grandal and Ramos last offseason, there will be other catchers in the same boat pursuing multi-year deals in Robinson Chirinos, Travis d’Arnaud, and Martin Maldonado. That teams have resorted to holdouts and free agent ballplayers have been conditioned in recent years to sign below their worth may make it easier for the Mets to absorb Grandal’s cost while finding a team willing to take Ramos off their books at the same time.
There’s obviously a possibility the Mets lose out on the Grandal sweepstakes and/or fail to make a considerable improvement behind the plate via trade, but such a risk theoretically exists in any pursuit of any reinforcement during the offseason, and it’s high time they try building off success constructively. However beneficial Wilson Ramos was with a bat in his hands, there are still reasons to be concerned about his broader value with this team next season, and no initial commitment to him should obstruct the front office from seeking out better options when they’re available.
Acquiring Grandal would cost money, though certainly not enough to nullify what he brings as a hitter, fielder, and batterymate. Already having his spot filled is not a sufficient reason to avoid an affordable, drastic improvement, and the Mets’ commitment to finishing what they’ve started is going to be measured by how earnestly they pursue such options.
