Success of Mets Bullpen Largely Depends on Trevor May’s 2021 Performance

Over the last few seasons, the New York Mets have struggled in late-game situations due to their underperforming bullpen and that’s something they can’t allow to continue this season, which is exactly why the front office acquired one of the top relievers in free agency over the offseason.

While there was a handful of quality high-leverage relievers available this past winter, the Mets ultimately settled on reliever Trevor May, signing him to a two-year, $15.5 million contract. Bringing the former Minnesota Twin into the fold, he’s joining a talented group featuring arms like Edwin Diaz, Seth Lugo, Dellin Betances, Jeurys Familia, Miguel Castro and Aaron Loup, who’ll each be utilized during the later stages of games in 2021.

But with Lugo expected to miss the first two months of the regular season due to his elbow surgery, New York will be without its most reliable relief pitcher from last season, meaning someone will need to step up in his absence. Since Betances is still rediscovering himself and Familia has continued struggling with his command, it seems neither of these two pitchers can be relied on to perform effectively when the game is on the line, which is less than ideal.

Considering May was brought in to help solidify the backend of this team’s bullpen, there’ll likely be a ton of pressure on him to play up to his high expectations early on as he’ll need to fill the void left by Lugo. Though the 31-year-old will probably receive some closing opportunities in 2021, his primary role is expected to be as a setup man in the seventh or eighth innings, bridging the gap to Diaz in the ninth inning.

Serving a similar role with the Twins in each of his last three seasons, the 6′ 5″ hurler will be fully prepared to take on this new job with the Mets this season, as he’s produced seven saves, 30 holds and has earned 10 wins since 2018. Digging deeper into his impressive career, the former fourth-round pick has been unhittable at times during that span, earning him recognition as one of the top relievers in the majors.

Since the 2018 campaign, May has compiled 113.0 innings, producing a 3.19 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 3.48 xFIP, 1.08 WHIP, .201 AVG, .265 BABIP, 32.9% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate, 24.7% LD rate, 33.7% GB rate, 41.6% FB rate, 15.3% HR/FB rate, 34.0% hard-hit rate and a 1.9 fWAR rating.

Among all qualified relievers since 2018, the former starter is tied for the lowest AVG and has produced the 12th-highest strikeout rate along with the 12th-lowest WHIP, according to FanGraphs.com.

After setting new career-highs with his strikeout rate (39.6%) and whiff rate (42.9%) last season, the towering reliever is poised to generate plenty of swings and misses for the fourth consecutive campaign, making him an extremely valuable weapon during high-leverage situations. Having said that, it’ll be extremely important to monitor the veteran’s workload throughout the 2021 campaign, especially since he’s coming off a shortened season and also underwent Tommy John surgery back in 2017.

Needing May to remain on the mound, the Mets can’t afford to overwork him out of the gate, potentially resulting in an injury and forcing him to miss extended time. With Lugo already on the injured list, losing another high-leverage reliever is something this club must prevent at all costs, meaning they’ll need to do everything possible to keep their bullpen healthy.

Taking a conservative approach, it’d make plenty of sense to take it slow with the right-hander through the first month or two of the season, which could prove to be difficult to accomplish, in hopes of preserving him for the larger part of the schedule. Even though this option probably wouldn’t be a popular decision amongst the fanbase, thinking about the bigger picture could ultimately prove to be very rewarding down the stretch.

Once Lugo returns from his rehab, whenever that happens, the Mets will feature three dominant arms at the backend of their bullpen through the rest of the season, but that can only become a reality if May (and Diaz) avoids any serious injuries.

Along with monitoring his workload, there’s also a way for the Kelso HS standout to improve off his stellar 2020 performance, as there are some areas to correct regarding his mid-90s fastball. Despite generating the second-highest whiff rate (46.9%) and the ninth-highest strikeout rate (43.5%) among all qualified pitchers, according to BaseballSavant.com, his four-seamer allowed plenty of hard contact against it during the shortened schedule.

Given its high velocity, May’s heater is expected to surrender a decent amount of hard contact, especially since its vertical movements range between 12-15 inches of drop. But since its hard-hit rate jumped from 36.5% in 2019 to a concerning 47.6% in 2020, significantly reducing that percentage could make him less susceptible to home runs this season.

Here’s where opposing hitters created the most damage against May’s fastball in 2020:

If May can improve the location of his fastball in 2021, reducing the number of times it finishes in the heart of the zone, then he should be able to lower the .575 SLG and .449 xSLG it allowed last season. In turn, keeping his four-seamer out of hittable spots could result in an increased amount of strikeouts, potentially allowing him to set a new career-high with his strikeout rate for the second consecutive season.

With so much riding on this season, receiving solid production from the bullpen, or at least at the backend of it, will undoubtedly increase the Mets’ chances of qualifying for the playoffs for the first time since 2016. So until Lugo returns, the onus will be on Diaz and May to carry the load for the time being, which may be easier said than done.

But if May doesn’t live up to his high expectations, for whatever reason, ending their current postseason drought could become extremely challenging this season.