Photo by Ed Delany/MMO

The New York Mets made starting pitching depth a priority this offseason when they signed not one, but two starting pitchers to replace the departure of Zack Wheeler.

Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha are both pitchers with previous track records of success, coming off down years. The idea of taking two bounce-back candidates to battle it out for a spot in the rotation seemed like a fine way to address the need for a fifth starter.

But how did Steven Matz find his way into this conversation?

Matz now finds himself in jeopardy of losing his spot in the starting rotation, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported on Tuesday.

In the article, Sherman notes a proposed idea by the Mets’ front office to juggle their six starting pitchers this season, particularly Matz and Wacha.

Those two pitchers would be in a platoon of sorts, with the team deploying them in that fifth spot of the rotation based on matchups.

The article also talks about potentially using openers in those starts, to make up for the perceived inability of either starter to pitch deep in games. That notion is warranted for Wacha, but looking at the numbers from last season, Matz proved to be a quality starting pitcher.

In 2019, Matz remained healthy for the second-straight season and made 30 starts. Half of those outings were quality starts with Matz going six or more innings and allowing three or fewer runs. In 14 of those 15 starts, Matz actually allowed two or fewer runs.

Wacha made 24 starts last season and only had six quality starts. Porcello had 13 quality starts out of his 32.

Digging deeper into the numbers from last season, there is not a single metric that favors Wacha over Matz, with walk rate being the only statistic that Porcello has a slight edge on the group.

  • Steven Matz: 4.21 ERA, 4.60 FIP, 96 ERA+, 1.341 WHIP, 9.1 H9, 1.5 HR9, 2.9 BB9, 8.6 SO9
  • Rick Porcello: 5.52 ERA, 4.76 FIP, 87 ERA+, 1.394 WHIP, 10.2 H9, 1.8 HR9, 2.3 BB9, 7.4 SO9
  • Michael Wacha: 4.76 ERA, 5.61 FIP, 90 ERA+, 1.563 WHIP, 10.2 H9, 1.8 HR9, 3.9 BB9, 7.4 SO9

There is nothing wrong with having healthy competition in spring training and injuries often resolve issues such as this. Still, that does not make up for the clear bias that this front office is exhibiting when releasing this report.

There is no mention of Porcello being on the bubble in Sherman’s article, indicating that his $10 million salary has all but sealed his place in the starting rotation. This is despite the fact that Matz was the homegrown incumbent who is coming off a better season, with an extra year of team control.

It is also impossible to ignore the influx of Brodie Van Wagenen’s former CAA clients to the roster (including Wacha), and the favor they are garnering due to that distinction.

Matz dealt with his fair share of injuries early on his career which slowed his development. There was a great concern that he would never be able to pitch through the nagging injuries required to be part of a rotation for a full season.

Now after answering those questions and making 60 starts over the last two seasons, Matz may be thrown in a foreign situation where he will not know when his starts are to come.

For two pitchers with a great injury history, this plan of juggling Wacha and Matz could put both at risk of getting hurt again.

If the Mets are really the meritocracy that Van Wagenen spoke of upon his arrival last year, Matz deserves the fourth slot in the rotation this season. It’s just that simple.