One of the Mets’ biggest offseason tasks is to improve their bullpen by acquiring a quality reliever or two. The 2017 bullpen combined for a 4.82 ERA which ranked 29th in the majors.

While bullpens are commonly unpredictable on a year-to-year basis, keeping it as is would not be a wise recommendation. The Mets should consider Bryan Shaw; one of the many free agent relievers on the market.

Outside of Jerry Blevins, Jeurys Familia, and AJ Ramos, there aren’t many top-notch in-house options remaining for the Mets currently. Familia and Ramos aren’t guarantees at this point either after a rough 2017 season for both players.

Relievers like Hansel Robles, Paul Sewald, Chasen Bradford, and Josh Smoker have showed glimpses of brilliance at times, but those were merely glimpses. Robles and Smoker have struggled with major inconsistency at times. Sewald and Bradford did fine in 2017, but only have part of a decent season under their belts.

It’s fine to have those types of players fill a spot or two in the bullpen, but they shouldn’t make up most of the bullpen.

The Mets have plenty of options in free agency aside from Shaw between relievers like Reed, Wade Davis, Greg Holland, Mike Minor, Anthony Swarzak, Brandon Morrow, Brandon Kintzler, Steve Cishek, and Tony Watson among others. That begs the question: Why Shaw?

Affordability Factor

First off, Shaw is affordable for the Mets unlike Davis or Holland. Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports predicts that he will get a three-year, $24 million contract. Also in Heyman’s article is an expert’s prediction that he will receive a two-year, $12 million deal.

Heyman’s predicted deal for Shaw is similar to his predicted deals for the rest of the relievers mentioned aside from Reed, Davis, and Holland.

The expert’s pick that Heyman cites makes Shaw the most affordable reliever when compared to the expert picks of all the other relievers mentioned. This would allow the Mets to get another important piece for 2018; perhaps even an additional reliever.

This affordability factor is a prerequisite when talking about potential matches for the Mets and Shaw passes the test.

Durability Factor

The words “durable” and “Mets” couldn’t be used in many sentences the last two seasons unless the word “not” was also in there. To avoid filling up a good portion of your screen with names, you can find FOX Sports’ 2016 Mets’ injury report here and their 2017 injury report here.

Every team loses players to injury each year, but the Mets lost more than the average team. Among those losses were important pieces to their success.

It would be a smart idea for the Mets to consider durability in any somewhat significant investment they make in their near future.

Shaw fits that bill perfectly. In 2017 he appeared in a league-leading 79 games for a reliever. This wasn’t just one isolated case either.

Shaw led American League relievers in appearances three of the last four seasons. In the one season that he didn’t lead, he still appeared in 74 games.

Shaw’s 378 appearances since 2013 are more than any big league reliever during that stretch. It’s an understatement to say that Shaw has been a durable player.

Production Factor

Durability alone won’t do the trick. A reliever could appear in 90 games a season, but his impact wouldn’t be felt in a positive way if he possessed a 9.00 ERA.

Luckily in Shaw’s case, that is not a problem. Not only does he stay healthy, but he also produces good results.

In 2017 he pitched to the tune of a 3.52 ERA, 1.213 WHIP, and 2.96 FIP while striking out 73 in 76 2/3 innings. He set a personal record for innings pitched and tied a record for strikeouts. At the same time his 3.52 ERA was actually the worst of his career.

In three of his other six seasons he had a mid-to-high 2.00 ERA while in the other three he had a low-to-mid 3.00 ERA. All seven seasons combined gives him a career 3.13 ERA.

Obviously ERA isn’t the best lense to look through when evaluating a reliever, but the fact that he doesn’t have any outliers helps prove his consistency over the years.

His other career numbers are good as well. He has a 0.7 HR/9 rate, 3.0 BB/9 rate, and 8.0 SO/9 rate.

The best marks he has put up in each of those categories were a 0.5 HR/9 rate, 2.5 BB/9 rate, and 9.3 SO/9 rate. The worst marks he has put up in each of these categories were a 1.1 HR/9 rate, 3.8 BB/9 rate, and 6.2 SO/9 rate.

Once again there weren’t any huge outliers in these numbers which further shows his consistency and positive production over the years.

Familiarity Factor

The icing on the cake is his familiarity with the Mets’ new manager Mickey Callaway. While that may only result in a minimal difference, it’s a positive one. Callaway and Shaw have worked together for the past five years as they both came to Cleveland in 2013.

Sometimes a change of scenery can change a player’s career for better or for worse. Mets fans have seen that after players like Jason Bay have entered New York and after players like Justin Turner have left.

In the case of Shaw, the less change the better. If he comes to Queens and produces the same way he has done since 2011, there shouldn’t be too many complaints.

Not only could this familiarity with Callaway be a positive in terms of production, but it could also be a positive in terms of signing Shaw.

Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com recently reported that two unknown teams have made Shaw an offer. The Mets are believed to be one of the teams which would makes sense due to Callaway’s presence.

Shaw Would Be A Cog In A Rejuvenated Bullpen

In 2016 the Mets bullpen combined for a 3.53 ERA which was good for sixth in the majors. That season they received spectacular full season performances from Familia, Blevins, and Reed as well as a pretty solid campaign from Robles. In addition they received an excellent month of September from Fernando Salas.

The Mets bullpen has the potential to be really good in 2018 if Familia stays healthy, Blevins continues to perform well, and Ramos and Robles bounce back. However, that’s a lot of “ifs.”

There are never any guarantees in life, but some things are still more likely to happen than others. Signing Shaw would give the Mets true consistency for a team that lacks that more than anything. It also wouldn’t limit their spending as much as other options might.

In an offseason where the Mets have to be smart with their acquisitions, Shaw would be a great choice.