Should Verlander or Scherzer Start Opening Day for Mets?

With Opening Day on the horizon, the Mets have quite the predicament staring them in the face as they decide on a starting pitcher. Both Justin Verlander, this offseason’s crown jewel acquisition, and Max Scherzer have accumulated an abundance of experience in the role during their Hall of Fame careers and are well-deserving candidates to be given the ball against the Marlins on March 30.

Let’s take a look at each player’s résumé and how they stack up against one another a month out from the start of the season.

If the Mets base their verdict on last year’s results, then Verlander should be the choice. Verlander has produced one of the most impressive careers of any starter in recent memory, and his 2022 season was one of his best to date. He recorded a 1.75 ERA, which ranked first among qualified pitchers by over 40 points, along with a 6.1 fWAR in 28 starts after appearing in just one game across 2020 and 2021 due to Tommy John surgery.

Perhaps the most positive sign to come out of last season for Verlander and the Mets is that he doesn’t appear to have skipped a beat from who he was pre-injury and hasn’t showed any signs of slowing down as well. His peripherals were exceptional across the board and his velocity also remained on line with his career averages. His K/9 rate fell below 10 for the first time since 2017, but his 9.51 total in 2022 was still well above average and his walk rate came in as one of the best in the league.

Verlander has carved out a reputation of being a workhorse throughout his career, starting less than 30 games just once from 2006 to 2019. There’s always going to be durability concerns with a player that’s 40 years old, but there are reasons for optimism regarding Verlander’s longevity and ability to trek on as one of baseball’s premier pitchers regardless.

Scherzer’s first Mets campaign wasn’t without its downs, but it’s still hard to chalk it up as anything other than a success. He only started 23 games due to oblique and left side irritation, but he was his same old self when he was on the mound as he put up a 2.29 ERA and 4.4 fWAR to go with a remarkable 10.71 K/9 rate and excellent control.

Scherzer’s age and durability is a concern, but there’s no denying his ability or competitive fire. That sets up an interesting intrasquad dynamic between him and Verlander, as the two stars are similarly wired and have also followed similar trajectories. There were reports of a feud when the two played for the Tigers, further adding to the intrigue of the situation, but both parties appear to have grown and moved on from that stage. Still, the Mets are tasked with making a decision between the two pitchers that comes with plenty of complications.

Over the course of their careers, Verlander has started 12 Opening Days with his most recent coming in 2020 while Scherzer has started six with his most recent coming in 2021.

Manager Buck Showalter recently stated that the team was considering splitting them up in the rotation so that one could start on Opening Day while the other could start the home opener the next weekend. That thought process may work in favor of Scherzer getting the nod to open the season, as Verlander starting the home opener would understandably be of interest to the Mets due to him being labeled as the team’s newest big ticket free agent. However, it could be argued that Verlander is more deserving after his magnificent showing in 2022 and lining him up as the team’s No. 1 starter makes the most sense in the long run.

Naming the Opening Day starter is going to be an arduous task for the Mets, but they can’t go wrong with either Verlander or Scherzer. It’s not every day you have two surefire Hall of Fame starters still at the top of their game in your rotation, so all in all it’s a good problem for the team to have.