Should the Mets Tender Dominic Smith a Contract?

Last week, MLB Trade Rumors released their salary arbitration projections. They’re usually pretty spot on, and the highlight was Pete Alonso making close to $16 million in his penultimate arbitration year.

The most interesting case, though, is that of Dominic Smith.

If the Mets tender him a contract, the maligned first baseman is projected to make $4 million in his third year of arbitration. (He has four full years of arbitration as a Super Two.) It’s not really a raise from his 2022 number of $3.95 million. The Mets, however, can non-tender him, release him from the 40-man roster, and allow another team to sign him for less than the $4 million he’d earn if were tendered one.

The Mets don’t really have any non-tender candidates outside of Smith. The rest of the arbitration-eligible players are Alonso, Jeff McNeil and “cheap” role players like Luis Guillorme, Tomas Nido and Drew Smith.

That’s because Smith struggled mightily in 2022, spending more time at the plate in Triple-A than with the Mets. Overall on the year, he slashed .194/.276/.284/.560 in 152 plate appearances in MLB with no home runs, 10 doubles and a triple. He had a 4-for-4 night on April 30, which spelled the doom for Robinson Canó‘s tenure with the Mets, but he didn’t improve off that performance. He was sent to Triple-A by the end of May, recalled for a month in the middle of the summer (during which he only had 51 plate appearances), then he was placed on the injured list with an ankle injury, never to be seen on the major-league roster the rest of the year.

The Mets traded for Daniel Vogelbach two days after Smith went on the IL, and Vogelbach took the remainder of the lefty designated hitter at-bats the rest of the seasons. Most importantly, he performed, with an .829 OPS and 144 wRC+ since his trade from Pittsburgh. He’s also under contract with a team option for $1.5 million next season.

This is where Smith’s case becomes interesting. Vogelbach is almost certainly the Mets’ left-handed DH heading into 2023. He’s cheaper than Smith, and he’s performed better, and more recently, than Smith has.

However, $4 million isn’t a lot of money in the grand scheme of things, is it? Will some team want to take a shot on Smith for that amount of money? Does his performance over three-ish months in Triple-A (.829 OPS, 122 wRC+) and an extra year of team control provide any value? Can he find power again?

On one side, teams probably answer that question with a firm “no,” as the Mets weren’t able to find a trade partner in 2022. However, with more guarantees of what his salary will be in 2023, could there be any teams interested? The Detroit Tigers, perhaps, with a new chief running the show, had a severe lack at first base (offensively and defensively, thanks to Spencer Torkleson’s poor performance) and designated hitter. Can Smith fill some of those holes at $4 million?

On the other hand, teams have multiple seasons worth of data on Smith, and they could just not want him at that price. The glove is still there, but will the bat come around? Teams may just wait to see if the Mets non-tender him, then they may wait again to see if the Mets release him before the season starts (or soon after a la Travis d’Arnaud) and still be able to sign him for less than what he’d earned with a tendered contract. It’s hard to find a spot on the 2023 Mets team for Smith.

Maybe this is just wishful thinking on behalf of the Mets, but I’d have to think someone would want Dom, even if it’s to find a way to be an average first baseman at that price with some level of team control. If you’re the Mets, any person you get in return for Dom is a plus. However, the Mets may be wise to just cut bait, save the $4 million and open up a 40-man roster spot as they head into a crucial offseason. I wouldn’t blame them.